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Messages - gamey

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271
General Discussion / Re: BitAssets Article
« on: April 30, 2015, 08:25:12 am »
The key phrase in this discussion is "functionally eqiuivalent". IMO if there is anything to be learned it is how things are "functionally equivalent" which is functionally equivalent to learning how to bridge the different contexts in which we learn things.

272
General Discussion / Re: BitAssets Article
« on: April 29, 2015, 11:03:19 pm »
I do not believe that Tony fails to know what are options. He was pointing out that when people purchase options there is not necessarily pressure or resistance from the underlying asset because assets are not exchanged. That seemed to be the crux of your argument against CFD's and why they are bad.  If CFD's enable manipulators, why don't options?

273
General Discussion / Re: BitAssets Article
« on: April 28, 2015, 05:59:49 pm »
Why not use modern CFDs in your analysis?  Why use bucketshops which were run like illegal gambling shops?  The level of creditworthiness between the markets can vary hugely.  A bucketshop vs a blockchain are basically as far apart as possible in terms of their counterparty risk.

274
General Discussion / Re: Can we implement Patreon in bitshares?
« on: April 27, 2015, 10:08:48 pm »
I believe this is the same feature that was discussed for the porn industry. (recurring payments)

275
General Discussion / Re: Precise numbers on dilution?
« on: April 27, 2015, 10:01:21 pm »
Price decline hasnt been due to marketing efforts, its mostly been due to lack of delivery of the product.

If Bitcoin wasn't hit by POW pressure who knows how everything would be different.  No one but true believers want to keep their money in BTC and every crypto's price if pegged to BTC in some manner.

One of the biggest problems is merchants have not adopted bitshares. At least one has been able to buy useful stuff with bitcoin. When the architect of BitSharesX decided that a whole new API would be better, it was probably the largest mistake ever made in the project. At least with Bitcoin I can take my BTC and instantly go buy things all over. As the price drops this problem worsens.  Sure we have shopping carts but crypto's heart has always been in niche services related to privacy.

I think at this point any marketer we get we should not put too high of expectations into them as it will be a very tough job. I don't like to post much because I have nothing to contribute but negativity and that doesn't help people on here who I like on a personal level. These people are investing a lot of their time and passion into this project. I can only hope Dan can finish a stable 1.0 product and we see a near optimal solution to a bitasset system.

276
General Discussion / Re: Precise numbers on dilution?
« on: April 27, 2015, 03:35:24 pm »
the perception that BTS can not be trusted to stick with things.

Stick with what? Developers randomly screwing with supply? The loss of confidence caused by that move is probably irreversible. This proposal doesn't change supply, just tries to dampen the damage.

Of course it changes supply moving forward.

No one has really established what portion of the fall in price is due to the dilution.  Granted no one really can, but at this point not one has even made a point of attempting an estimation.  This will be more of "changing the deal" and it'll be another stupid bandaid fix like PR.


277
General Discussion / Re: Precise numbers on dilution?
« on: April 27, 2015, 01:40:25 am »
There are 2 things here. 

The change in initial perception when the money supply started being screwed with.  We already bore the brunt of this.

The second thing is that actual downward pressure made by selling vesting shares from people still wishing to sell.

At best you only effect the downward pressure, but you're going to increase the perception that BTS can not be trusted to stick with things.

Anyway..this is pointless. I just hope this would never gain traction.

278
General Discussion / Re: Precise numbers on dilution?
« on: April 27, 2015, 01:30:57 am »
It seems unlikely this would be a net positive.  DNS was killed.  It can't just be unmerged, so all your thinking is extremely one-sided.  Undoing the merger would mean bytemaster would have to somehow make something up to PTS/AGS. If he didn't, then people would be quite irritated.  Their AGS funds went into paying BTS developers and now their BTS is conditional? Huh?
No one said to undue the merger. We are talking about pausing it or making it conditional. If the Bitshares market cap never goes back up then screw the merger. Do you care about the merger if the market cap goes down indefinitely?

Ok fair enough I got 2 things somewhat mixed up.  You are not saying undue the merger, just make it so that people who contributed to AGS can no longer have liquid BTS.  You are suggesting only partially undoing the merger... or as you put it "conditionally" 

Your thoughts on incentives/distributions is so poorly conceived it isn't worth critiquing further.  As if AGS investors somehow owe more to BTS. Everytime things have been changed nothing has improved. More changes are not likely to help things outside improved bitassets.

I think the improvement I suggested would change things for the better and no one would be hurt. Everyone should want the market cap to go up but if some people don't then their passive income should be paused until the market cap reaches the threshold.

People who could care less about Bitshares but who get the passive income could simply immediately sell it. Just like Bitcoin miners. I'm not claiming that is happening but why leave it to chance? Why?

Obviously those who can no longer sell their vested BTS are hurt.  I don't think I need to explain this.  It will be obvious to just about everyone on here. I can't even understand your logic about people who don't want the market cap going up should have their passive income paused.
Lets also not allow selling of bts unless the price is greater than X or perhaps we can "freeze" 99% of everyone's bts until the price hits THE MOON or even better we can ask the ripple guys how to do it properly.

Your main concern is the short term price? I believe you already know that price is irrelevant at this point, let those that want to sell to do as they wish, cheap bts for the rest of us and for the rest of the world.

The only real issue I see here is the low delegates pay, nothing else.

If you sold Bitshares it's different because you purchased it, mined for it or earned it. The merger really has nothing to do with people who want to sell Bitshares. The merger was basically a giveaway.

And if it's a justified giveaway shouldn't it be measured for success? Couldn't we have the expectation that there should be some positive result achieved? If it's not about the market cap rising then what is it about?

The other side of this is the value of DNS taken away from people.  You can't undo that, but somehow you can take people's BTS so it is fair game? You can't even quantify any of this stuff.


I dont know that freezing vesting is really an option.  It looks like we are just changing things yet again in a way that screws some people. 

Who are those people that are owed vested funds, but don't already own a shitload of BTS and absolutely can't wait a bit until the market recovers? Do they prefer being paid worthless BTS right now or strong BTS in two years?

Tying the rate of vesting to market cap will ensure that inflation is introduced only when the market can handle it. It'll additionally act as a price stabilization mechanism.

EXACTLY!

I can understand a lot of people are able to get BTS right now because of the merger and they can't wait to sell it or cash out but like you said it's very important that the market cap rise.

No one is going to take Bitshares seriously in terms of speculators if the market cap goes down indefinitely. Human psychology doesn't work that way even if the owners of Bitshares can benefit from it going down indefinitely.

So lets make another hair-brained (hare?) change.  Then people will take us seriously. Even in terms of the shares added by dilution, the market price has fell far more. I can come up with educated guesses as to why, but no one can assign true weights to them. I assume that 1/4th of the 1/5th dilution total has been freed.  That is about 5% inflation....  Why do you even think this is a big factor?  People are just desperate and you are arguing for your side, just like when you tried so hard to get us to partner with blackshares.


[/b]


Becoming like the big banks and big governments? Unable to adapt because it might upset someone? So what is the alternative?

The people who are going to sell will sell on the way down. The people who are going to buy will buy in the way up. Haven't you been watching?

But you're a true believer who will not sell even if the market cap went to $1 million.

Unfortunately most people are going to sell before the vesting even completes if that happens so what is the value of it? In the market perception is very important and for a tech firm or for a lifeform adaptation is the key to survival.


Lol you've never even established that the vesting of the merger is that big of a factor. I'd be very surprised if you hold much unvested BTS vs BTS acquired elsewhere.

When people sell on the way down then someone is also buying what is being sold.  Again, just more nonsense.  Do you not understand these sorts of basics and you are giving advice !?!?!?

Yes market perception is important and changing the deal again would likely hurt even more than it helps.  It is just desperation. You make me want to go dig out my AGS wallet and sell the rest of my BTS right now.

279
General Discussion / Re: Precise numbers on dilution?
« on: April 27, 2015, 01:22:20 am »
Freeze all vesting. Resume in 24 months conditional on market cap and at much slower pace.

This is rediculous.  Central banks freeze assets.  We do not.  I say release all shares and be done with it.  Maybe the price will suffer... or maybe not, but we could get that level of uncertainty out of the way.

So why vest them at all. Why not just release them all right now so it can be sold in one big dump and we can be done with it?

This is actually more reasonable, although those who do not have vested balances would be hurt.  At least you are not further screwing PTS/AGS holders and it seems more equitable.

280
General Discussion / Re: Precise numbers on dilution?
« on: April 27, 2015, 01:20:12 am »
It seems unlikely this would be a net positive.  DNS was killed.  It can't just be unmerged, so all your thinking is extremely one-sided.  Undoing the merger would mean bytemaster would have to somehow make something up to PTS/AGS. If he didn't, then people would be quite irritated.  Their AGS funds went into paying BTS developers and now their BTS is conditional? Huh?
No one said to undue the merger. We are talking about pausing it or making it conditional. If the Bitshares market cap never goes back up then screw the merger. Do you care about the merger if the market cap goes down indefinitely?

Ok fair enough I got 2 things somewhat mixed up.  You are not saying undue the merger, just make it so that people who contributed to AGS can no longer have liquid BTS.  You are suggesting only partially undoing the merger... or as you put it "conditionally" 

Your thoughts on incentives/distributions is so poorly conceived it isn't worth critiquing further.  As if AGS investors somehow owe more to BTS. Everytime things have been changed nothing has improved. More changes are not likely to help things outside improved bitassets.

I think the improvement I suggested would change things for the better and no one would be hurt. Everyone should want the market cap to go up but if some people don't then their passive income should be paused until the market cap reaches the threshold.

People who could care less about Bitshares but who get the passive income could simply immediately sell it. Just like Bitcoin miners. I'm not claiming that is happening but why leave it to chance? Why?

Obviously those who can no longer sell their vested BTS are hurt.  I don't think I need to explain this.  It will be obvious to just about everyone on here. I can't even understand your logic about people who don't want the market cap going up should have their passive income paused.
Lets also not allow selling of bts unless the price is greater than X or perhaps we can "freeze" 99% of everyone's bts until the price hits THE MOON or even better we can ask the ripple guys how to do it properly.

Your main concern is the short term price? I believe you already know that price is irrelevant at this point, let those that want to sell to do as they wish, cheap bts for the rest of us and for the rest of the world.

The only real issue I see here is the low delegates pay, nothing else.

If you sold Bitshares it's different because you purchased it, mined for it or earned it. The merger really has nothing to do with people who want to sell Bitshares. The merger was basically a giveaway.

And if it's a justified giveaway shouldn't it be measured for success? Couldn't we have the expectation that there should be some positive result achieved? If it's not about the market cap rising then what is it about?

The other side of this is the value of DNS taken away from people.  You can't undo that, but somehow you can take people's BTS so it is fair game? You can't even quantify any of this stuff.


I dont know that freezing vesting is really an option.  It looks like we are just changing things yet again in a way that screws some people. 

Who are those people that are owed vested funds, but don't already own a shitload of BTS and absolutely can't wait a bit until the market recovers? Do they prefer being paid worthless BTS right now or strong BTS in two years?

Tying the rate of vesting to market cap will ensure that inflation is introduced only when the market can handle it. It'll additionally act as a price stabilization mechanism.

EXACTLY!

I can understand a lot of people are able to get BTS right now because of the merger and they can't wait to sell it or cash out but like you said it's very important that the market cap rise.

No one is going to take Bitshares seriously in terms of speculators if the market cap goes down indefinitely. Human psychology doesn't work that way even if the owners of Bitshares can benefit from it going down indefinitely.

So lets make another hair-brained (hare?) change.  Then people will take us seriously. Even in terms of the shares added by dilution, the market price has fell far more. I can come up with educated guesses as to why, but no one can assign true weights to them. I assume that 1/4th of the 1/5th dilution total has been freed.  That is about 5% inflation....  Why do you even think this is a big factor?  People are just desperate and you are arguing for your side, just like when you tried so hard to get us to partner with blackshares.


[/b]

281
General Discussion / Re: New DEX exchange ANN
« on: April 26, 2015, 08:19:12 pm »
bribowles.blogspot.com

There is this if anyone cares to read it. It is another approach on the same problem, but does not require multisig support. It uses a secondary blockchain to collateralize trades in a game-theory based manner. If such a DEX was created and it found significant liquidity providers, then it could perform much like shapeshift but decentralized.  There are tradeoffs in complexity though, with all the bonds/collateralization etc adding a lot of difficulty in implementation. Taking into account how thin markets are etc makes it very difficult.

A multi-sig approach will have other advantages, but each traded coin has to support multi-sig and using multisig shifts around the basis of the counter-party risk. With the approach in the paper above, one could support Ripple or any other coin and transition towards multisig as the feature becomes standardized.

282
General Discussion / Re: Precise numbers on dilution?
« on: April 26, 2015, 06:20:42 pm »
Freeze all vesting. Resume in 24 months conditional on market cap and at much slower pace.

BRILLIANT!  +5% +5% +5% +5% +5% +5%

I vote we freeze vesting until it surpasses the minimum market cap. This could even be done with a price feed of the market cap so that it's taken out of developers hands and left up to the market itself.

Call it conditional merger and use the price feed as the oracle. This way the rate of distribution of shares is not predetermined but determined by actual market conditions. The process should freeze whenever the market cap falls below the threshold.

So what was the market cap when the merger first happened? It was a bit higher? So freeze until it gets back to that point and start it again. This way you're not using any arbitrary magic numbers like 24 months but instead a data feed which is a variable number that everyone who is part of the merger would have the incentive to see rise.

The market cap is the one number we all want to see rise.

When I read that I thought the guy must be joking to even propose to change the vesting rule like that...But thinking in it again maybe stop the vesting NOW until we reach again at least $60 mil market cap and stop it again if we fall below $30 mil market cap doesn't look a very bad idea and maybe should be further discussed?

And to add to that maybe we can buy out Music for another $200 - $300 mil BTS (which appears to be a fair market value of Music) with some vesting rules that allow to claim the new created BTS only if the market cap is above $60 mil and stops if it falls below $30 mil?

I can no longer see the line between sincere suggestions and parodies.

The gist of the idea is that all mergers should be conditional mergers going into the future. The idea is anyone we merge with should have the incentive to raise our market cap and keep it raised during the vesting period. If our market cap suffers then they shouldn't get their distributions at the expense of our market cap but if our market cap doesn't suffer then the merger should unfreeze.

This is possible because Bitshares is digital and doesn't have to go by the rules of analog corporations. It can merge in any way it wants with other communities and there is no reason why it had to be done the way it was done.

The incentives of the merger obviously are wrong if people are getting distribution while the market cap is dropping. As a result they'll want to support the merger even if the market cap is dropping because they are getting Bitshares the whole time. If the market cap passes the threshold we can speed up the release.

The point is I don't see why we had to release it on a timeline. We could release it conditionally and have the rate of release adjust to the fluctuations of the market cap.

So it's not a parody, it's a possible solution. Of course if you think it's not possible you can say why not.
It seems unlikely this would be a net positive.  DNS was killed.  It can't just be unmerged, so all your thinking is extremely one-sided.  Undoing the merger would mean bytemaster would have to somehow make something up to PTS/AGS. If he didn't, then people would be quite irritated.  Their AGS funds went into paying BTS developers and now their BTS is conditional? Huh?

Your thoughts on incentives/distributions is so poorly conceived it isn't worth critiquing further.  As if AGS investors somehow owe more to BTS. Everytime things have been changed nothing has improved. More changes are not likely to help things outside improved bitassets.

283
General Discussion / Re: Precise numbers on dilution?
« on: April 26, 2015, 05:57:54 pm »
Freeze all vesting. Resume in 24 months conditional on market cap and at much slower pace.

BRILLIANT!  +5% +5% +5% +5% +5% +5%

I vote we freeze vesting until it surpasses the minimum market cap. This could even be done with a price feed of the market cap so that it's taken out of developers hands and left up to the market itself.

Call it conditional merger and use the price feed as the oracle. This way the rate of distribution of shares is not predetermined but determined by actual market conditions. The process should freeze whenever the market cap falls below the threshold.

So what was the market cap when the merger first happened? It was a bit higher? So freeze until it gets back to that point and start it again. This way you're not using any arbitrary magic numbers like 24 months but instead a data feed which is a variable number that everyone who is part of the merger would have the incentive to see rise.

The market cap is the one number we all want to see rise.

When I read that I thought the guy must be joking to even propose to change the vesting rule like that...But thinking in it again maybe stop the vesting NOW until we reach again at least $60 mil market cap and stop it again if we fall below $30 mil market cap doesn't look a very bad idea and maybe should be further discussed?

And to add to that maybe we can buy out Music for another $200 - $300 mil BTS (which appears to be a fair market value of Music) with some vesting rules that allow to claim the new created BTS only if the market cap is above $60 mil and stops if it falls below $30 mil?

I can no longer see the line between sincere suggestions and parodies.

284
General Discussion / Re: Gavin's thoughts on mining
« on: April 20, 2015, 05:37:16 pm »
Btw let's do some simple maths to see why mining isn't a problem

Let says we are in 2025 and 1BTC = 100,000$.
Over one year, 3.125*6*24*365 = 164 250 BTC are mined. So that's 16,5 billion of revenue for miners by year.

Today, Internet revenue is 8 trillion/year:
http://news.softpedia.com/news/Research-Values-Internet-Revenue-at-8-Trillion-US-Dollars-232894.shtml

It would be interesting to break down this 8 trillion number to see what portion go to the infrastructure (routeurs, cables, servers...) but my guess is that this number is far more than 16,5 billion.  Cisco revenue in 2014 is 47 billion, so that makes the point.

Sorry but mining will no be a problem from an economic standpoint, even at 1m$/BTC, just wait 10 years.

In 2025 the inflation will have dropped down to 1.5%.  Currently it is ~10%.  So in absolute bitcoin terms, inflation is 6.6 times higher now. Ok, so what if BTC is 100k?  Thats 444x where we're at now, but only 1/6.6 the inflation.  That means in $ terms, you'll still have 68X the downward pressure in $$ (assuming constant efficiency, in reality it'll be considerably lower... ).  That is not $$ simply thrown away, that is money that is thrown away on carbon production.  In 10 years it will be a lot more apparent that global warming is a very serious thing and even the weirdo guys with cognitive biases will be hard pressed to deny it.  You think this is going to make BTC popular as a currency going forward?

This is all assuming that BTC survives that long with the constant downward pressure.  People need to have faith in the price.

Internet revenue has nothing to do with this except to point at something quite different that generates/churns through a lot of money.

285
General Discussion / Re: Gavin's thoughts on mining
« on: April 19, 2015, 05:01:15 pm »
The problem is those people treat Satoshi as a god when they should be adjusting his poorly conceived inflation schedule with a hardfork.

Bitcoiners are stupid but they're not that stupid.

I don't follow?  I don't think it is very easy to hardfork bitcoin, but do you think adjusting the inflation downwards would be that damaging?  It would put off the miners but the reduction in downward price pressure could easily make up for it.  Smooth out the blockreward differences...

I agree that mathematically Bitcoin would benefit from adjusting the inflation downwards but even though their flawed supply structure may prove to be their long-term downfall, changing their 21 million Bitcoin supply rules, would mean a transition from being viewed as a digital gold type money (pre-determined supply)  to one whose supply is controlled/altered by people and potentially a small group of people at that.

People assign value correctly to and adopt forms of money that require the least trust in people, (Because people can't be trusted & are 'short-termist' ) such as gold, silver and more recently Bitcoin. Altering the pre-determined supply rules would require you to trust people more going forward resulting in substantial value loss.

I think most Bitcoiners and crypto-currency holders understand some version of this general idea/concept and it's unlikely they would risk losing their digital gold status as Bitcoin's value is almost exclusively derived from the use of their tokens as money. (Unlike BTS whose shares now derive value from expectations surrounding the products and services based on it's blockchain like BitAssets.)

Ahh I see.  I think such things are all perception and if the inflation is largely removed and results in fewer coins or the same longterm max then I have to wonder if the result would be so drastic. It really is psychology, part rational and part irrational.  Very hard to know what the results would be.

It is pretty simple math to look at the downward pressure created as the market cap increases.  This problem will still be there even when the blockreward halves.

The truth about global warming is starting to become quite apparent.  (yes it exists...for those who think it is political ... I can't even fathom)  The popularity of a global currency is going to be constrained somewhat by the power consumption.  Honestly, when I first heard of Bitcoin that is what turned me off.  "backed by electricity".

edit - It really comes down to having people perceive that the change is the result of consensus.

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