Author Topic: What's happening with the price?  (Read 62253 times)

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Offline CalabiYau

Long story short: I am buying  ;)

Offline monsterer

Do you think Bitcoin would have gained popularity if the Bitcoin foundation or early adopters got to decide on how much dilution Bitcoin should have the following year and where it should be directed? I highly doubt it. 

Actually, yes I do think it would have - the supply is one tiny part of the whole, it doesn't really change the nature of the currency, doesn't affect the buying/selling process, doesn't stand in the way of bitcoin's big innovation (the blockchain). Bitcoin is so much more than just an investment tool, and the same is true of bitshares.
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Offline Frodo

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BitShares has a fixed ceiling it will never reach and one-fifth the dilution of Bitcoin - which wastes its dilution instead of reinvesting it.  How does that disqualify one from being a currency and not the other?

Further, BitShares is a profitable company that produces smart-currencies as its products.  Products that are better in every way with none of the drawbacks you mention.  There is no inflation in BitAssets at all (relative to their underlying peg) and the underlying BTS can produce those stable currency products whether is gaining or falling in value.  BTS is not intended to be a currency itself, so a tiny amount of dilution has zero affect on the value proposition of its smart currency products.

Further, regardless of whether developers are paid in "mined" equity or existing equity from the AGS stash or 10% set aside for developers in the genesis block, the selling pressure they generate to pay their rent would be the same anyway.  That modicum of selling pressure is the cost of generating forward thrust.  There was no other source of thrust.  BTSX would have stopped advancing in the state it was in November.  If work had stopped, where would the price be?

BTSX would have stagnated with no further support while BitShares VOTE and DNS would be splitting the benefits of what BitShares is today - self funding of developers and other ecosystem entrepreneurs.  People always seem to forget what the alternatives were when the decisions were made.  The fact is that

The BTSX-only universe you are wishing for was not one of the choices available to us.

The only choices were to merge or commit fratricide - three block chains competing to the death for market depth and network effect (where BTSX was the only one unable to pay developers).  Imagine three different BitUSDs splitting the current market depth.

We are so incredibly much stronger than we were in November I can hardly believe it.  The market will catch up with that fact in due time.  In the meantime, I hope everybody enjoyed the March Madness sale!

Stan - this post should be a sticky. I couldn't agree more and needed this sanity check/reminder of where we are/came from in November.

 +5%

I'm really getting tired of all that delegate pay doom and gloom talk. I don't understand how our greatest advantage over all other crypto projects is constantly getting attacked in such a manner. Whereas Bitcoin with far higher inflation (and inefficient use) has still a market cap 200 times higher. And even more importantly is trading relatively stable at those prices.

Offline mike623317

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BitShares has a fixed ceiling it will never reach and one-fifth the dilution of Bitcoin - which wastes its dilution instead of reinvesting it.  How does that disqualify one from being a currency and not the other?

Further, BitShares is a profitable company that produces smart-currencies as its products.  Products that are better in every way with none of the drawbacks you mention.  There is no inflation in BitAssets at all (relative to their underlying peg) and the underlying BTS can produce those stable currency products whether is gaining or falling in value.  BTS is not intended to be a currency itself, so a tiny amount of dilution has zero affect on the value proposition of its smart currency products.

Further, regardless of whether developers are paid in "mined" equity or existing equity from the AGS stash or 10% set aside for developers in the genesis block, the selling pressure they generate to pay their rent would be the same anyway.  That modicum of selling pressure is the cost of generating forward thrust.  There was no other source of thrust.  BTSX would have stopped advancing in the state it was in November.  If work had stopped, where would the price be?

BTSX would have stagnated with no further support while BitShares VOTE and DNS would be splitting the benefits of what BitShares is today - self funding of developers and other ecosystem entrepreneurs.  People always seem to forget what the alternatives were when the decisions were made.  The fact is that

The BTSX-only universe you are wishing for was not one of the choices available to us.

The only choices were to merge or commit fratricide - three block chains competing to the death for market depth and network effect (where BTSX was the only one unable to pay developers).  Imagine three different BitUSDs splitting the current market depth.

We are so incredibly much stronger than we were in November I can hardly believe it.  The market will catch up with that fact in due time.  In the meantime, I hope everybody enjoyed the March Madness sale!

Stan - this post should be a sticky. I couldn't agree more and needed this sanity check/reminder of where we are/came from in November.

Offline Stan

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See I dont think the problem is the "Selling Pressure".  I think the problem is that people lost confidence because they now believe that there can be all this dilution.

So the point I was making was if we were to say adopt a policy of hey we can never dilute beyond the fees i think this would bring in more buyers and increase confidence.  In the meantime there is an issue where we need to get enough runway to keep the developers.

I know my comment about major stakeholders is not popular but my point is something has to give..i know there is no easy answer to fix the price imo. 

But that doesnt change the fact that a paying employees in share dilution has issues...they have no idea what they are going to make day to day...and b) it's so low at this point what is the point of it?  does it actually keep anyone developing?

There are many things about human endeavors that don't work as well until they reach critical mass.  Market depth is one.  Human civilization size is another.  The number of kids on your block willing to play baseball. 

Try not to point to BitShares issues that improve with scale as problems with its design.  It must be bootstrapped through this early phase until it reaches critical mass in market depth and delegate pay and everything else.  Then watch out!

:)

« Last Edit: April 04, 2015, 01:40:02 am by Stan »
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Offline xiahui135

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I think DPOS is a good model. But as the money is given to delegates, it is not so attractive for miner. It means bts is harder than btc to attract more people in.
Essential of currency is to stand for credit. Why people will hold your money? Because they trust you. BTS itself lack credit, so there is little adoption of bit-asset. We should invest in UIA and other aspect to increase value of BTS itself. Attract people to use BTS(i mean the ecosystem). Then BTS will have the basis of credit, and then enough to make its currency widely adopt.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2015, 11:25:46 pm by xiahui135 »

jaran

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See I dont think the problem is the "Selling Pressure".  I think the problem is that people lost confidence because they now believe that there can be all this dilution.

So the point I was making was if we were to say adopt a policy of hey we can never dilute beyond the fees i think this would bring in more buyers and increase confidence.  In the meantime there is an issue where we need to get enough runway to keep the developers.

I know my comment about major stakeholders is not popular but my point is something has to give..i know there is no easy answer to fix the price imo. 

But that doesnt change the fact that a paying employees in share dilution has issues...they have no idea what they are going to make day to day...and b) it's so low at this point what is the point of it?  does it actually keep anyone developing? 
« Last Edit: April 03, 2015, 09:48:26 pm by jran »

Offline Stan

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So the developers stuck around and are sticking around for less than $1k per month??  I highly doubt it...and i got the impression from other posts that they were actually "taken care of" behind the scenes.

I think the idea behind the merger was sound but the current dillution that pays employees in dilution is broken.

IMO we should push to move to payouts to employees cannot exceed fees.  Until such time that the fees are not enough to keep developers on there own the major stakeholders should be taking care of the developers behind the scenes  by reducing their stake.

So let me get this straight.  You want major stakeholders to give them BTS to sell to pay their rent?

You see?  No difference.  Same selling pressure affecting price.

And you are advocating classic tragedy of the commons.  You want a few people to sacrifice so that everyone else can benefit.

Let's do a thought experiment:

Suppose there are three whales.  One has 2% and the others have 1%.  How would you divide up the bill?
Would they each pay the same amount based on being above some arbitrary whaleness threshold**?
Or would you say that the biggest whale owes twice as much?

Whichever logic you pick, now expand that out to all shareholders.
Either everybody chips in the same amount or everybody chips in according to the size of their stake.
Which is more fair to the little guys?
Obviously - proportional to their stake!

Guess what.  That's exactly what the current system does.

:)

 

**whaleness threshold = everybody with a bigger stake than me.  :)
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jaran

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So the developers stuck around and are sticking around for less than $1k per month??  I highly doubt it...and i got the impression from other posts that they were actually "taken care of" behind the scenes.

I think the idea behind the merger was sound but the current dillution that pays employees in dilution is broken.

IMO we should push to move to payouts to employees cannot exceed fees.  Until such time that the fees are not enough to keep developers on there own the major stakeholders should be taking care of the developers behind the scenes  by reducing their stake.


Offline Stan

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I don’t think there’s anything wrong with BM posting more however the loss of value is primarily due to the introduction of inflation & subsequent loss of crypto-currency status.

Bitcoin is an inefficient company that is wasteful and which can’t fund it’s own development and marketing. It doesn’t have any products on its blockchain.  Yet this ‘company’ is worth $3.5 Billion. Why? It is a popular crypto-currency with unchangeable supply rules. That is the product, a popular form of money with supply rules that aren’t changeable by man can become extremely valuable as Gold and Silver have shown.

BitSharesX was a Bitcoin challenger. It’s incredibly difficult to usurp the market leader but BTSX was on track to do it. With no inflation, more effective decentralisation and an incredibly fast blockchain that might also disintermediate centralised payment processors like BitPay, BTSX was arguably the strongest Bitcoin challenger on the market & was correctly valued as such. In addition it had a team of highly talented developers, money in the bank and was also developing the potential killer app, BitAssets which would allow people to move freely between a wide range of assets in a way that would benefit and generate revenue for holders of BitSharesX. It was also already hugely popular in Asia & growing in size by every community metric. It was amazing. The market correctly valued it at 0.00093 BTC and rising. It’s hard to imagine that with that trajectory and all the subsequent development we’ve enjoyed including web and mobile wallets and now a direct PM gateway too that BTS would be valued any less than $250 million at this stage and given the BTC capitulation at the beginning of the year may even as far-fetched as it sounds been in a much stronger position than even that.

Then the market realised the largest shareholder, main developer and overall leader was very serious about introducing dilution to turn BTSX into a self funding competitive company to maximise our ability to develop BitAssets & other blockchain based products and services. BitShares has since lost over 75% of it’s BTC & $ value. It is now viewed as a company and the market is evaluating the development, progress and adoption of BitAssets as the key valuation metric. Currently I would say BTS is valued fairly by the market for what it is now at the current stage. This unfortunately puts a lot of pressure on developers to constantly deliver.  It’s quite sad because BTSX as a crypto-currency was already largely developed and generating a bigger following every single month as opposed to our current constant state of value and community decline.

"The current price is due to <fill in whatever you don't like about the union of all past decisions>."

 :)

BitShares has a fixed ceiling it will never reach and one-fifth the dilution of Bitcoin - which wastes its dilution instead of reinvesting it.  How does that disqualify one from being a currency and not the other?

Further, BitShares is a profitable company that produces smart-currencies as its products.  Products that are better in every way with none of the drawbacks you mention.  There is no inflation in BitAssets at all (relative to their underlying peg) and the underlying BTS can produce those stable currency products whether is gaining or falling in value.  BTS is not intended to be a currency itself, so a tiny amount of dilution has zero affect on the value proposition of its smart currency products.

Further, regardless of whether developers are paid in "mined" equity or existing equity from the AGS stash or 10% set aside for developers in the genesis block, the selling pressure they generate to pay their rent would be the same anyway.  That modicum of selling pressure is the cost of generating forward thrust.  There was no other source of thrust.  BTSX would have stopped advancing in the state it was in November.  If work had stopped, where would the price be?

BTSX would have stagnated with no further support while BitShares VOTE and DNS would be splitting the benefits of what BitShares is today - self funding of developers and other ecosystem entrepreneurs.  People always seem to forget what the alternatives were when the decisions were made.  The fact is that

The BTSX-only universe you are wishing for was not one of the choices available to us.

The only choices were to merge or commit fratricide - three block chains competing to the death for market depth and network effect (where BTSX was the only one unable to pay developers).  Imagine three different BitUSDs splitting the current market depth.

We are so incredibly much stronger than we were in November I can hardly believe it.  The market will catch up with that fact in due time.  In the meantime, I hope everybody enjoyed the March Madness sale!


« Last Edit: April 03, 2015, 09:03:19 pm by Stan »
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Offline Empirical1.2

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Why? It is a popular crypto-currency with unchangeable supply rules.

Counter argument:

Why? Its the first real cryptocurrency and has been around the longest, nothing to do with supply rules.

To quote Come-from-Beyond:

Quote
You took Bitcoin weakness (necessity to pay money to electrical companies) and transformed it into your strength (self-funding). That was a smart engineering solution.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=940298.msg10895809#msg10895809

CfB is absolutely right. Bitcoin is vastly inefficient with high and largely wasteful inflation. BTSX offered more effective decentralisation without the need for any inflation and was even profitable. With additional funds capable of being directed to developers and marketers. That was a genius engineering solution.

However I doubt Cfb is pushing to dilute NXT even though they could certainly use more funding. 

Quote
Counter argument:

Why? Its the first real cryptocurrency and has been around the longest, nothing to do with supply rules.

Do you think Bitcoin would have gained popularity if the Bitcoin foundation or early adopters got to decide on how much dilution Bitcoin should have the following year and where it should be directed? I highly doubt it. 

Q. You know that really successful, widely adopted form of money that shareholders choose the supply of?  (That isn't controlled by force)
A. No, me neither.

While shares in traditional companies have been used as a form of payment/exchange through history, this is not how those companies derive their value. Those companies derive their value based on their products and services. Traditional companies that can create shares exactly the way BTS does have been around for centuries, yet none have been widely adopted and gained value purely as a form of money. Bitcoin is different. Why? It has no product or service, yet it has a $3.5 Billion valuation and is used exclusively as a money. It's because unlike traditional shares, the supply of Bitcoin is pre-defined and can therefore be widely adopted purely as a form of money, very similarly to the reasons why gold and silver were adopted as a form of money.


I have gotten more done for the future of BTS in the past month than in the 3 months prior and everyone on the core team knows it.

Hey, if keeping off the forum really is allowing you to bang out development like that then that's awesome. I'll take a more-or-less quiet but busting-ass BM if it means development pace is accelerated.  +5%

And @ Empirical: I think you're really, really overestimating the impact that dilution and the merger et al had on the BTS price. Just about every crypto in general has gone through the same phases: huge hype and price blowout followed by slow bleed. If nothing had changed supply-wise with BTS but the same promises remained unfulfilled (fiat on-ramps, marketing blitz, etc) I can pretty much guarantee we'd still be in about the same position price wise as we are today. Honestly it's just kind of how the markets work. Without real adoption it's nothing more than mass speculation, regardless of dilution etc.

I personally think the self-funding method of dilution is an incredible idea, and if the devs can truly knock out some key aspects/features in the next few months to raise the market cap, the self-funding will take on a life of its own.

The BTSX share price clearly reflects a strong rise up until dilution became a serious reality after which we lost 50% of our value in less than a month. The forum posts at the time also show huge turmoil and division over dilution at the time. Going from debating when we would pass Litecoin to whether we would lose most of our value as a result of the move. It has proved to be the latter. It is hard to argue that it was not the major factor in the breaking of the strong uptrend and the cause of the huge decline in the BTSX price. Though there are many other contributing factors to speed of the decline in the months proceeding. 

I agree that a self funding BitAsset machine can be successful even without being backed by something structured like a limited form of money it's just a much harder task and because the products aren't patentable a crypto-currency can copy them very cheaply if they prove to be useful.
Also in favour of your argument, BTS is still at no.5 with lots of positive development all coming through in the next few months.



I see your points there, but there is no proof of what you are saying. NXT at one point had a market cap around 100 million there was not any major change since then and they are at 10 millions right now. No proof that  the inflation change created the decline. There are many factors that cause it, like  "pump and dump", btc price, poor marketing, not any major business deal, bad PR, bad wallet etc. I for one  thing that the self-funding model invented by Bitshares will be the used in every DAC in the future, I think it is absolutely genius. You forget also that if the market cap is big enough the dilution could practically disappear, in other word this could only be temporary on the startup phase of a DAC, the time where money are most need it and hard to come by. Even if Bitshare will not be the DAC that we all hoped it would be , they introduce so much innovation in the space that I'm pretty sure will stand the test of time.

I think there's ample proof that our specific decline was largely caused by dilution. I think NXT is a good example though in favour or your argument. I think NXT is vastly inferior though yet they are getting closer and closer to us with every passing month when dilution theory states the opposite, that we should be pulling further and further away. I think if NXT pass us in CAP that will be time to seriously re-evaluate the current model imo.

You're right that dilution could disappear once the CAP increases, this will be very positive for the share price. I'm unconvinced though that BTS will gain a large BTC comparable valuation and widespread adoption as a form of money in it's own right because there is always the spectre that someone may come up with an 'innovative' idea for diluting shareholders at a later stage.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2015, 07:02:15 pm by Empirical1.2 »
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Offline oco101

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I don’t think there’s anything wrong with BM posting more however the loss of value is primarily due to the introduction of inflation & subsequent loss of crypto-currency status.

Bitcoin is an inefficient company that is wasteful and which can’t fund it’s own development and marketing. It doesn’t have any products on its blockchain.  Yet this ‘company’ is worth $3.5 Billion. Why? It is a popular crypto-currency with unchangeable supply rules. That is the product, a popular form of money with supply rules that aren’t changeable by man can become extremely valuable as Gold and Silver have shown.

BitSharesX was a Bitcoin challenger. It’s incredibly difficult to usurp the market leader but BTSX was on track to do it. With no inflation, more effective decentralisation and an incredibly fast blockchain that might also disintermediate centralised payment processors like BitPay, BTSX was arguably the strongest Bitcoin challenger on the market & was correctly valued as such. In addition it had a team of highly talented developers, money in the bank and was also developing the potential killer app, BitAssets which would allow people to move freely between a wide range of assets in a way that would benefit and generate revenue for holders of BitSharesX. It was also already hugely popular in Asia & growing in size by every community metric. It was amazing. The market correctly valued it at 0.00093 BTC and rising. It’s hard to imagine that with that trajectory and all the subsequent development we’ve enjoyed including web and mobile wallets and now a direct PM gateway too that BTS would be valued any less than $250 million at this stage and given the BTC capitulation at the beginning of the year may even as far-fetched as it sounds been in a much stronger position than even that.

Then the market realised the largest shareholder, main developer and overall leader was very serious about introducing dilution to turn BTSX into a self-funding competitive company to maximise our ability to develop BitAssets & other blockchain based products and services. BitShares has since lost over 75% of it’s BTC & $ value. It is now viewed as a company and the market is evaluating the development, progress and adoption of BitAssets as the key valuation metric. Currently I would say BTS is valued fairly by the market for what it is now at the current stage. This unfortunately puts a lot of pressure on developers to constantly deliver.  It’s quite sad because BTSX as a crypto-currency was already largely developed and generating a bigger following every single month as opposed to our current constant state of value and community decline.

There are positive developments coming along and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a small reversal, potentially a bigger one if BitAssets can attract a niche market or create a popular product which uses BitAssets.

I see your points there, but there is no proof of what you are saying. NXT at one point had a market cap around 100 million there was not any major change since then and they are at 10 millions right now. No proof that  the inflation change created the decline. There are many factors that cause it, like  "pump and dump", btc price, poor marketing, not any major business deal, bad PR, bad wallet etc. I for one  thing that the self-funding model invented by Bitshares will be the used in every DAC in the future, I think it is absolutely genius. You forget also that if the market cap is big enough the dilution could practically disappear, in other word this could only be temporary on the startup phase of a DAC, the time where money are most need it and hard to come by. Even if Bitshare will not be the DAC that we all hoped it would be , they introduce so much innovation in the space that I'm pretty sure will stand the test of time. 

Offline nomoreheroes7

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I have gotten more done for the future of BTS in the past month than in the 3 months prior and everyone on the core team knows it.

Hey, if keeping off the forum really is allowing you to bang out development like that then that's awesome. I'll take a more-or-less quiet but busting-ass BM if it means development pace is accelerated.  +5%

And @ Empirical: I think you're really, really overestimating the impact that dilution and the merger et al had on the BTS price. Just about every crypto in general has gone through the same phases: huge hype and price blowout followed by slow bleed. If nothing had changed supply-wise with BTS but the same promises remained unfulfilled (fiat on-ramps, marketing blitz, etc) I can pretty much guarantee we'd still be in about the same position price wise as we are today. Honestly it's just kind of how the markets work. Without real adoption it's nothing more than mass speculation, regardless of dilution etc.

I personally think the self-funding method of dilution is an incredible idea, and if the devs can truly knock out some key aspects/features in the next few months to raise the market cap, the self-funding will take on a life of its own.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2015, 05:38:06 pm by nomoreheroes7 »

Offline monsterer

Why? It is a popular crypto-currency with unchangeable supply rules.

Counter argument:

Why? Its the first real cryptocurrency and has been around the longest, nothing to do with supply rules.

To quote Come-from-Beyond:

Quote
You took Bitcoin weakness (necessity to pay money to electrical companies) and transformed it into your strength (self-funding). That was a smart engineering solution.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=940298.msg10895809#msg10895809
My opinions do not represent those of metaexchange unless explicitly stated.
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Offline yellowecho

I have gotten more done for the future of BTS in the past month than in the 3 months prior and everyone on the core team knows it.
We love and appreciate you, Dan!  Keep up the awesome work  8)
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