Quote from: Simeon II on July 04, 2014, 11:38:01 pm

@ Empirical1 and other interested in buying BTS.

I do not know if this is good or bad news for you but:
I have found counter party and have sold 75% of my position at 31.25 Mil  USD (at $640/BTC) market cap.
50% of the money, by both sides, is transferred to escrow, so it is effectively done! 


@ Agent86 – my security deposit is 35%. The other party finds the amount satisfactory, so…

 

I'm glad you were able to make a deal with and sort out escrow on terms you were happy with. 

I'm also glad there's someone willing to buy a big position at $31.25 Million.

Your remaining 25% still leaves you with a nice stake, I hope you will keep it and share in the success of X

Ohhhh, if I am correct or partially correct I intend to use most of the money to re-buy a bigger stake than the one I had.
 If I am wrong and you guys were correct I will repurchase but unfortunately a smaller stake… things of life, you know, you cannot have it both ways.

Quote from: Simeon II on July 03, 2014, 12:38:55 pm

First – The bet is of the table now! Let that be clear.

I was trying to make several points .
It is one thing to make estimations, it is totally deferent if you have to put your money where your mouth is (i.e. buy/sell at those prices). Do not take it personally, it is human nature.

I am not ready to lock in any of my losses …
As negotiation go, I will use the same approach as you - I can start considering again at:
- Whatever 10K USD buys @ 45 mil market cap.

As far as putting my money where my mouth is.
 
I hope you agree that there is a big difference between being able to buy on the market when the product is actually released and you have all the information about volume, depth & can gauge the interest/How people are receiving it? To make a deal before the market is a different proposition.

I know your bet is off the table. The best bet I can commit to now and offer is the following -

(Unfortunately, I cannot do anywhere close to your 1%.) But I am happy to buy $10 000 worth of XT now at a 20 million CAP now. So 0.05 % of the total shares,

The offer is available for next 24 hours, with the conditions

1. XTS is not trade-able on the market in the next 24 hours. 
2. Someone at I3 needs to handle the escrow and guarantee that I wll get 0.05% of the XTS supply for my $10 000.

I'm sure they are really busy, but maybe it will be good for publicity.
So you/someone else would just need to convince them to guarantee your side if you were interested in the bet.

I can transfer the BTC equivalent to I3 as soon as those conditions are met. (So there is nothing for them to guarantee from my side, only that they are willing to be escrow and to confirm that they've received my funds.)

I am not ready to lock in any of my losses …

As negotiation go, I will use your approach and counter-offer:
- Whatever 10K USD buys @ 45 mil market cap.

Or

You can use my approach and offer something creative that that covers my losses, if BTS is at my prediction level at launch. Giving me the chance to go from 15 mil to 20 mil (at which level I will still be getting only 66% for a small fraction of my total position) just does not cut it.

Quote from: Simeon II on July 03, 2014, 01:36:43 pm

edit: We could have done something else (using BM) –ask him to move the balances from my account  to his accounts in the genesis block!

Possible or not... LOL

Sure as hell possible... assuming he has access to any text editor.

 Thanks, for putting my prediction as a choice in your poll 

Quote from: jwiz168 on July 03, 2014, 04:03:48 am

dream on with your buying price . Our BTS will surely be much higher than what you have just estimated.

I agree. I think the market cap will be $50-75 million myself to start.

But that doesn't mean I want to buy from Simeon @ 30 million, though he is probably an honest guy.

But his account was created mid-May and XTS was allocated at the end of Feb.
1% is also a very big stake/investment to have made...
Also to jump on and try sell it (much too eagerly) for a low valuation when I didn't ask specifically to buy from someone off-market, makes me think he wants to keep the perception low so he can buy more too.
If you did have a big stake his actions seem illogical. But I don't know.

First – The bet is of the table now! Let that be clear.

I was trying to make several points .
It is one thing to make estimations, it is totally deferent if you have to put your money where your mouth is (i.e. buy/sell at those prices). Do not take it personally, it is human nature.
Several factors are in play for the initial price (most not in favor of BTS). So taking the highest price that PTS ever was, when you must be fully aware of the reasons driving the price up at that moment, and to use those prices as a starting point of calculating BTS initial price is pretty optimistic. I personally see the initial price/capitalization at a range of 2X PTS to 1/3 PTS (meaning 2 to 15 Mil capitalization)
So, all in all, BTS may go to  trillions someday, but this will be some day in the more distant future.

As for my side of the story – I have a lot of paper losses and missed opportunities ever since I  invested in Bitshares. What is worse, I envision even more of those in the near future. So locking my profits/losses at near 0 is not the worse deal for me...

What % do you want me to put now?
20% OK?  (I can put 100% if you do not intend to go close to 1% of total shares).

Tell me how big you wanna go and I will offer you decent security deposit too.

Your math - @ 30 Mil cap (and 2 or 4 mil shares), one share is:
$15/$7.5 per share not $0.015...


But BTW I offered you a bet at the correct numbers.



Anyway it's all good  ...  if your money are not where your mouth is 

Quote from: Zeus on July 02, 2014, 06:44:17 pm

Up to the 28th of Feb 1 PTS = c1.3 XTS and 1 PTS was ranging between $15 - $20 if I remember correctly... 

Therefore 1 XTS at that time should have been c$11 - $16.

The market has valued Bitshares BACK THEN a market cap of $44 mil - $64 mil before even having a finished product.

After all these delays and all these amazing improvements with DPOS. The initial market cap of Bitshares shouldn't be less than at least $80 mil and I think I am pessimistic here...Otherwise our long term investment in Bitshares was not a good one and we should have invested in NXT (that doesn't make sense sorry)

Concluding 1 XTS should not be less than $20 each (calculation based on 4 million PTS / AGS).

I looked at coinmarketcap and PTS was valued at $25 million before the snapshot and $10 million after.
As PTS makes up 50% of XTS. I would think that means the market was valuing BitShares X @ circa $30 Million?

Is that right?

If that's the case, I think the market should be valuing it at, at least

$30 Million divided by 2 Billion XTS = $0.015 per share.

(Or $7.5 x amount of BTS you have listed on AGS explorer)

Obviously the valuation should be much higher now for multiple reasons, personally I'm kind of hoping there will be some people that need to sell because it's been a while since the snapshot and I want to buy moarrrrr... 

Leaving aside that you math is wrong …with just a few decimal positions.

Do you want to make a bet?

Tell me what % of BTS XT you want to buy at $30 Mil market capitalization. (1% will be worth about $300,000; 0.1% will be $30,000 etc.; 0.001% will be $300)

The bet is the following:
- You will publish the percentage you want to buy at $30 Mil market cap. Then you will transfer the amount to an escrow that we both agree on.
- I will send the # shares equal to the % you wanted to buy (for you to withdraw) and I will get all the money in the escrow.
-Additionally, I will transfer your shares  in 15 days or less after BTS X become liquid.

Sounds fair?

P.S. The bet is open to anybody having $30 mil capitalization expectations and wanting to buy less than 1%.