Bitshares price discussion

[liondani]

what about moving our sell orders extremely higher instead of taking them away? 

[jsidhu]

A warning to anyone lending out BTS on polo right now:

Normally lending is pretty safe.  (Basically you are risking the exchange getting goxxed, just like if you are keeping them on an exchange as normal).

But right now we have a weird scenario where one insane guy (cagara) is trying to borrow and short way more BTS than one person should reasonably have as a position, and more than the market's orderbooks could really handle at one time.   Worse, he apparently just keeps adding more to it when it goes against him.


What could happen if BTS starts to rise is this:

BTS buys drive the price up and clear a lot of the sell orders out of the orderbook.  Seeing the rise, more sellers pull their orders.  Sell side declines significantly.

Cagara's short becomes at a greater loss, and eventually he gets margin called.  However, he is short so much that the amount can no longer be filled near the market price, because 6 million or more BTS buy will drive the price up MASSIVELY, especially after some buy clear out a lot of it.

The result is that cagara's margin call might drive the market up so much that his remaining btc is not actually sufficient to buy enough back, leaving him sitting with a BTS short remaining open but no capital.
At this point the lender cannot get their BTS back.


The lending rates are really low right now.  You should NOT be taking this risk of the margin liquidation of this insane individual causing him to be unable to repay your lended BTS!  I have pulled all my lending BTS (and am withdrawing each day). 


Withdrawing lending BTS also keeps him from continuing to suppress the price with more shorts, if everyone does it.  At the very least you should be asking for 1-2% daily to cover the risk you are taking, and also bleed him for his manipulation of the BTS price.


In normal situations lending can be a good idea to get a bit of free coins, but this is not a normal situation, and lending at .02% like some people are doing is lunacy.

6M isn't a lot, it would currently drive price to 3k satoshi only, and 17M required to get to 4500 satoshi, remember alot of people aren't sitting around watching price all day, if it happens it will happen quickly and before these guys come and remove their orders. It would probably make th emarket jump 200-300 satoshi at once nothing more. But I think his position may be bigger since hes been shorting for a week, and he throws 40 btc like its  a small chunk of his portfolio so it will be funny but i dont get why he would short so much with so little wiggle room, its like throwing away money..

[Ander]

Also there is a lot of money thats waiting on 2800 to break and then they are going to buy hard since it will confirm the new move up.   As in Werneo's chart for example. 

Once the move finally starts, things are going to happen very fast.

The really interesting thing is that you can trigger a margin call without the price moving at all.

Yes, the algo is not bullet proof. Fast removal of sell orders can make it break, I believe.

Yes, if you have sell walls, and their existence allows someone to take a huge margin position, because your walls 'make him safe', and then you remove them, he just gets liquidated!

There is 26M bts on the orderbook right now.  A couple million of it is mine, at MUCH higher prices.  Maybe at some point I can pull it and help margin call him, lol.

I wonder how many other bulls who are waiting to pull them at the right time.

[tonyk]

Also there is a lot of money thats waiting on 2800 to break and then they are going to buy hard since it will confirm the new move up.   As in Werneo's chart for example. 

Once the move finally starts, things are going to happen very fast.

The really interesting thing is that you can trigger a margin call without the price moving at all.

Yes, the algo is not bullet proof. Fast removal of sell orders can make it break, I believe.

[godzirra]

Assuming this is all pretty close to being true, this is a ticking timebomb. This is not a black swan event. Its a white swan event. Everyday that we approach Oct13 without any major delay brings us closer to launch. As if crypto trading was not volatile enough. Not sure how well he's going to be sleeping these next few days.

[Ander]

Also there is a lot of money thats waiting on 2800 to break and then they are going to buy hard since it will confirm the new move up.   As in Werneo's chart for example. 

Once the move finally starts, things are going to happen very fast.

[Ander]

[* continued]...

Polo's algo is constantly  checking if the current order book, has enough BTS (or whatever is borrowed) for sale,.So if the collateral at any point is able to buy < 120% (at the respected prices)  of BTS it needs to repay/pay back, it triggers a margin call.

Ah interesting.  So lenders are probably safe, unless there is a very large sell at some point that the algorithm is relying on being able to buy, and then that gets pulled at once.  Still would probably be safe.

Cagara isnt safe though. He will have to buy said orders at some point.

[Ander]

Cagara's 40 btc dump has already been fully recovered from now.  Except that he is short many more BTS now.

[tonyk]

[* continued]...

Polo's algo is constantly  checking if the current order book, has enough BTS (or whatever is borrowed) for sale,.So if the collateral at any point is able to buy < 120% (at the respected prices)  of BTS it needs to repay/pay back, it triggers a margin call.

[godzirra]

@ Ander
Well it's getting more interesting. I'm not accustomed to this kind of trading activity. I'll take your word for it that some of these traders are completely reckless with their money.

Personally I tend to disbelieve most things from the trollbox unless I have some personal experience with the other user. But I do hope this guy is short 6m bts. It's going to make nice rocket fuel.

[tonyk]

A warning to anyone lending out BTS on polo right now:

Normally lending is pretty safe.  (Basically you are risking the exchange getting goxxed, just like if you are keeping them on an exchange as normal).

But right now we have a weird scenario where one insane guy (cagara) is trying to borrow and short way more BTS than one person should reasonably have as a position, and more than the market's orderbooks could really handle at one time.   Worse, he apparently just keeps adding more to it when it goes against him.


What could happen if BTS starts to rise is this:

BTS buys drive the price up and clear a lot of the sell orders out of the orderbook.  Seeing the rise, more sellers pull their orders.  Sell side declines significantly.

Cagara's short becomes at a greater loss, and eventually he gets margin called.  However, he is short so much that the amount can no longer be filled near the market price, because 6 million or more BTS buy will drive the price up MASSIVELY, especially after some buy clear out a lot of it.

The result is that cagara's margin call might drive the market up so much that his remaining btc is not actually sufficient to buy enough back, leaving him sitting with a BTS short remaining open but no capital.
At this point the lender cannot get their BTS back.


The lending rates are really low right now.  You should NOT be taking this risk of the margin liquidation of this insane individual causing him to be unable to repay your lended BTS!  I have pulled all my lending BTS (and am withdrawing each day). 


Withdrawing lending BTS also keeps him from continuing to suppress the price with more shorts, if everyone does it.  At the very least you should be asking for 1-2% daily to cover the risk you are taking, and also bleed him for his manipulation of the BTS price.


In normal situations lending can be a good idea to get a bit of free coins, but this is not a normal situation, and lending at .02% like some people are doing is lunacy.

this will be forever called "black swan cagara" event.

PS
On more serious note. I believe polo's algo[* continued] is doing very good job in this regard - What I mean is if you all bulls remove all your profit taking sell orders right now...it will take a very small price movement for him to be called (my estimate is 27-27.5k would be enough)
Disclaimer - I have done so  already.

[Ander]

He literally announced he was shorting 40 btc worth today AS IT HAPPENED.

Everything is consistent with what he is saying being true, and he is just incredibly cocky and overconfident.



People do this kind of thing.

Some guy posted on reddit that he was margin long 20000 ETH and that if it went to a certain price he would get margin called.  Then it happened, because DUH, someone is going to ruin you if you post that. 

[godzirra]

Is there a reason to believe cagara? I mean it's a pretty suicidal move and he is saying all this on a trollbox right? What am I missing? Seems pretty likely he's exaggerating his moves and pretending to be a whale, no?

I mean if this is true, then everyone should just pull their sell orders and it will moon.

[Ander]

A warning to anyone lending out BTS on polo right now:

Normally lending is pretty safe.  (Basically you are risking the exchange getting goxxed, just like if you are keeping them on an exchange as normal).

But right now we have a weird scenario where one insane guy (cagara) is trying to borrow and short way more BTS than one person should reasonably have as a position, and more than the market's orderbooks could really handle at one time.   Worse, he apparently just keeps adding more to it when it goes against him.


What could happen if BTS starts to rise is this:

BTS buys drive the price up and clear a lot of the sell orders out of the orderbook.  Seeing the rise, more sellers pull their orders.  Sell side declines significantly.

Cagara's short becomes at a greater loss, and eventually he gets margin called.  However, he is short so much that the amount can no longer be filled near the market price, because 6 million or more BTS buy will drive the price up MASSIVELY, especially after some buy clear out a lot of it.

The result is that cagara's margin call might drive the market up so much that his remaining btc is not actually sufficient to buy enough back, leaving him sitting with a BTS short remaining open but no capital.
At this point the lender cannot get their BTS back.


The lending rates are really low right now.  You should NOT be taking this risk of the margin liquidation of this insane individual causing him to be unable to repay your lended BTS!  I have pulled all my lending BTS (and am withdrawing each day). 


Withdrawing lending BTS also keeps him from continuing to suppress the price with more shorts, if everyone does it.  At the very least you should be asking for 1-2% daily to cover the risk you are taking, and also bleed him for his manipulation of the BTS price.


In normal situations lending can be a good idea to get a bit of free coins, but this is not a normal situation, and lending at .02% like some people are doing is lunacy.

[werneo]

Pennant formation now set to resolve on or about Oct 4. The weekend could be interesting.