Author Topic: Market Report  (Read 17505 times)

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Offline tonyk

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 :) You can buy 'back' PTS with your BTSX/Launched DACs' profits!  :)
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline donkeypong

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Just some of my arguments against:
1.You did not provide numbers... If you did you must expect the chance of 1 happening to be a)pretty high (>75% for the more realistic values of .'b') or  b)the difference AGS:PTS to be pretty high.
2. Actually, I consider the chance of AGS>PTS bigger, if ever those two percentages do differ at any point/any DAC.

1. In the case of my reasons, numbers would be purely speculative. I don't like to have all my eggs in one basket and these are some reasons why not, but I wouldn't be able to value the probabilities of them occurring. If you're looking for concrete numbers, I don't have them. Some investors use a bit of intuition, as I do.

2. I don't disagree with you. But what if things turned the other way between now and some future DAC snapshot? Remember, we could see many new DACs and forks. We could be talking about months or years from now. Music's model could be used for videos or for e-books. Someone could do a full-scale gambling thing, fantasy sports, celebrity stakes, you name it. BTSX for equities such as orange juice, coffee, porkbellies. This is just the first round and I'd like to hold some PTS.

Offline tonyk

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Just some of my arguments against:
1.You did not provide numbers... If you did you must expect the chance of 1 happening to be a)pretty high (>75% for the more realistic values of .'b') or  b)the difference AGS:PTS to be pretty high.
2. Actually, I consider the chance of AGS>PTS bigger, if ever those two percentages do differ at any point/any DAC.


For your second point - I do not think the value of PTS is in the superiority of the technology behind it. And/or will ever be in that.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2014, 07:01:10 pm by TheOnion »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline donkeypong

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I will give 1000 BTSX to anybody who gives me a good explanation why his/her PTS from before the end of the AGS donation period  are not in the AGS fund already! (This prize has about $1,000,000 value in about 2-2,5 years in my estimation.)

The only way it makes sense is if you do not like one particular upcoming DAC and you want to sell them PTS shortly before its snapshot day and buy them after it. But which one don't you like? Music - great potential (even though I do not know if anybody is actually developing it). HackerFish is making the lottery (play) DAC into something great - not a simple  casino but a platform for the casinos! Truthcoin is probably just a centralize business on a blockchain, but even so the potential market is in the hundred of millions or revenue....

PS
And sorry I will be the judge what I deem good explanation!
I do not like  DAC A do not qualify! 
Concrete example with numbers will increase your chances!
This offer is good for 5 days.

TheOnion

OK, I'll bite, since I still have PTS that I did not donate or sell. You are asking, basically, why did I hold onto it when I could have garnered a bigger impact via AGS donations? I did both, but I still have plenty of PTS.

Reason 1: The social consensus (f.k.a. the Social Contract) suggests that each DAC allocate at least 10% each to PTS and AGS holders. It can be more than 10% (for example, I believe Music will allocate 25% to each). Initially, most AGS donors were known as investors, while the majority of PTS holders were miners. Now what if there's a reason that a new DAC wants to curry particular favor with miners? Perhaps, for some reason, they are better able to promote that new DAC? More tech savvy, perhaps, when that part of the community is most valuable to an emerging DAC? More loyal? My thought was (and still is) that it's quite possible the AGS holders might be viewed by a new DAC owner as more opportunistic, e.g. more likely to sell a stake, whereas PTS holders might be viewed as better longterm stakeholders. So could a new DAC allocate 10% to AGS and 25% to PTS?

Understand, I am not characterizing AGS donors this way, since I am one myself. But what if AGS holders pump-and-dump-killed a DAC and then public opinion broke in that direction? Or what if techies are really needed to help evangelize and explain a new DAC to the world? I wanted to hedge my bets there.

Reason 2: What if PTS gets a really cool upgrade, or gets cloned with an airdrop to old PTS holders, and its holders come out ahead?

I know there are arguments against both of these. But I think either of these reasons are enough to keep some PTS in my wallet.

EDIT: typo fixed.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2014, 06:50:14 pm by donkeypong »

Offline tonyk

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I will give 1000 BTSX to anybody who gives me a good explanation why his/her PTS from before the end of the AGS donation period  are not in the AGS fund already! (This prize has about $1,000,000 value in about 2-2,5 years in my estimation.)

The only way it makes sense is if you do not like one particular upcoming DAC and you want to sell them PTS shortly before its snapshot day and buy them after it. But which one don't you like? Music - great potential (even though I do not know if anybody is actually developing it). HackerFish is making the lottery (play) DAC into something great - not a simple  casino but a platform for the casinos! Truthcoin is probably just a centralize business on a blockchain, but even so the potential market is in the hundred of millions or revenue....

PS
And sorry I will be the judge what I deem good explanation!
I do not like  DAC A do not qualify! 
Concrete example with numbers will increase your chances!
This offer is good for 5 days.

TheOnion
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline mf-tzo

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I agree with all that but it seems that people have underestimated a lot DNS... I would expect today that PTS skyrockets and that's not the case and my guess is because there is much confusion about the total supply upon launching so people can figure out fait PTS value based on estimated market cap... In any case I am not selling at this price my few remaining PTS....

Offline Riverhead


While BitsharesX has the spotlight and the glamour something like BitShares Domains and perhaps a gambling DAC could be silent and consistent income.

Absolutely. And let's not forget BitShares Music, which has always been my favorite. If they ever get that thing off the ground, and if they beat Amazon and Apple into the crypto space, that one could be enormous.
I had forgotten about that one. Makes your head spin.

Offline donkeypong

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While BitsharesX has the spotlight and the glamour something like BitShares Domains and perhaps a gambling DAC could be silent and consistent income.

Absolutely. And let's not forget BitShares Music, which has always been my favorite. If they ever get that thing off the ground, and if they beat Amazon and Apple into the crypto space, that one could be enormous.

Offline Riverhead

All the same, I plan to load up on PTS, because all this interest in Bitshares X will be great marketing for the next round of BitShares DACs.


Ditto. I too am looking forward to the PTS door crasher sale on the 22nd/23rd. While BitsharesX has the spotlight and the glamour something like BitShares Domains and perhaps a gambling DAC could be silent and consistent income.

Offline donkeypong

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so....with the coming snapshot any speculation about pts price? 

personally i don't think it will go more than 0.0087 prior to snapshot. I have no opinion though about the price the days that will follow after...

I think PTS will go lower than it might have at another time. I sense that people are pouring any disposable income they have into BTSX right now, which probably means that post-snapshot PTS will take a hit also. Can't blame them; the future of money and banking is taking shape before our eyes. All the same, I plan to load up on PTS, because all this interest in Bitshares X will be great marketing for the next round of BitShares DACs.

Offline mf-tzo

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so....with the coming snapshot any speculation about pts price? 

personally i don't think it will go more than 0.0087 prior to snapshot. I have no opinion though about the price the days that will follow after...

Offline xeroc

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You must teach me the trick to do both 1) and 3) and in that order ...  :)
Just wanted to give a reasoning for why people might not be holding!
If they were to donate to AGS they probably do not PTS and waited for them to rise before a snapshot!

Offline donkeypong

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Yeah, I got ya. For a pump and dump, I would have waited a bit longer, though. It's all good; I'll buy more if others keep dumping.

Offline Empirical1

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True, but as far as I can see, the only reason to get out of PTS is if one is extremely excited about BTSX and needs to pay for it somehow. Otherwise, why have people held it until now only to flake out the week of a dual snapshot?
1) Donate to AGS using PTS
2) wait for snapshot annoucment
3) sell pts when high
4) get your shares from AGS
5) buy low after snapshot

sounds reasonable to me

That was reasonable when AGS existed. I'm talking about today, this week. Why would people sell PTS if not to buy BTSX?

If you don't like the snapshot or you think you can buy in cheaper post launch. In my case I'm a PTS seller now, but it was a close call.

My personal decisions

1. The alt-coin market is in a downturn, very negative, to be tied up now.
2. I couldn't value the Vote DAC at all. It looks interesting but Adamkernest has not been very active since the announcement. I have no idea what their short term business plan/approach is. There is limited interest at the moment. So personally I felt it had limited pre-snapshot value.
3. I like the DNS DAC. Toast is great and I think it looks strong.  I also think people like Clains in particular have done a good job in general putting the word out a bit. Hard to value post launch, mine was wide $2.5-10 Million.

Judging by investor interest, PTS volumes. I have a feeling you're not going to be missing out hugely value wise if you sell now and buy post-launch, so given the downturn in the alt-coin market & given I've already got some AGS. It made sense to me to sell some PTS.   

I have BTC but otherwise, BitShares is literally the only thing you want to be invested in right now imo. (I have a little NXT hedge left, sold 63% in the last few days, a little XCP hedge, sold 1/2 of that to buy more BTSX 2 weeks ago too )

Offline tonyk

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@  donkeypong

True, but as far as I can see, the only reason to get out of PTS is if one is extremely excited about BTSX and needs to pay for it somehow. Otherwise, why have people held it until now only to flake out the week of a dual snapshot?

Because their PTS would/should achieve the maximum selling price right before the dual snapshot.


Trivia question: Who made the most money in the MaidSafe IPO?


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« Last Edit: August 18, 2014, 11:19:08 pm by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.