Author Topic: Bitshares price discussion  (Read 895426 times)

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Offline intelliguy

We were already at/below the 300 satoshi range for a while. Accumulation phase is over, IMO.

The coinmarketcap.com manipulation hasn't ended, and is still ongoing.

I hate to promote a steemit post I wrote here today, but it is directly related to the pricing discussion.

See steemit.com/(AT SIGN)intelliguy

Or manually copy/paste this: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@intelliguy/oh-no-coinmarketcap-com-pumps-scam-coins-by-accident-marketcap-price-x-available-supply

(I am surprised you still can't post steemit links in SMF forum)

...and the post ends with:

QUOTE: "P.S. This is why STEEM and BITSHARES don't trend as high as other coins. Just so you know."

« Last Edit: March 29, 2017, 08:16:18 pm by intelliguy »
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Offline Akado

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Technical analysis is maybe not the right tool for BTS price prediction.

I would also take a look at fundamentals.
- Vesting period rearrange sims to be over.
- MPAs collateral is on steady rise for 3 months
- Volume on Dex is on steady rise, centralized exchanges deposits are falling.
- Bts.bots and shorting are growing in popularity. 
- Stress test is proving technology superiority.
- Bitcoin is bearish. Internally - governance problem is on the rise, externally - governments are establishing serious control belts. People are exploring alternatives.
- Community is consolidated attracting new raving fans
- Many projects are on the rise exploiting bitshares only features. 
- The growth is shy but steady
- Bitshares muscles are becoming visible.

There would probably be some corrections here or there, speculators are hunting for prey. Overall BTS has decent rise perspective.

Yup, agree with this.

Yeah most likely just a random pump. Plus I saw the weekly chart and every time there is a big selloff, there was a pump after, so this might be also it. Nonetheless, there are still lot's of people who waited a long time to get rid of their bags. I'm waiting to see it back to 300 satoshis and see if it holds. If it does I will probably start accumulating. We broke 2year long down trend and volume is increasing, it just needs to keep going on.

We were already at/below the 300 satoshi range for a while. Accumulation phase is over, IMO.

why not? it's a coin like any other. charts show emotions.

I wouldn't say it's over. we were on 300 for a while but always trending. we are yet to retest support. as far as we know Bitshares still hasn't found a bottom imo. It's still too soon to call a bottom but that's just me.
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Offline nomoreheroes7

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Technical analysis is maybe not the right tool for BTS price prediction.

I would also take a look at fundamentals.
- Vesting period rearrange sims to be over.
- MPAs collateral is on steady rise for 3 months
- Volume on Dex is on steady rise, centralized exchanges deposits are falling.
- Bts.bots and shorting are growing in popularity. 
- Stress test is proving technology superiority.
- Bitcoin is bearish. Internally - governance problem is on the rise, externally - governments are establishing serious control belts. People are exploring alternatives.
- Community is consolidated attracting new raving fans
- Many projects are on the rise exploiting bitshares only features. 
- The growth is shy but steady
- Bitshares muscles are becoming visible.

There would probably be some corrections here or there, speculators are hunting for prey. Overall BTS has decent rise perspective.

Yup, agree with this.

Yeah most likely just a random pump. Plus I saw the weekly chart and every time there is a big selloff, there was a pump after, so this might be also it. Nonetheless, there are still lot's of people who waited a long time to get rid of their bags. I'm waiting to see it back to 300 satoshis and see if it holds. If it does I will probably start accumulating. We broke 2year long down trend and volume is increasing, it just needs to keep going on.

We were already at/below the 300 satoshi range for a while. Accumulation phase is over, IMO.

Offline Geneko

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Technical analysis is maybe not the right tool for BTS price prediction.

I would also take a look at fundamentals.
- Vesting period rearrange sims to be over.
- MPAs collateral is on steady rise for 3 months
- Volume on Dex is on steady rise, centralized exchanges deposits are falling.
- Bts.bots and shorting are growing in popularity. 
- Stress test is proving technology superiority.
- Bitcoin is bearish. Internally - governance problem is on the rise, externally - governments are establishing serious control belts. People are exploring alternatives.
- Community is consolidated attracting new raving fans
- Many projects are on the rise exploiting bitshares only features. 
- The growth is shy but steady
- Bitshares muscles are becoming visible.

There would probably be some corrections here or there, speculators are hunting for prey. Overall BTS has decent rise perspective.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2017, 07:45:21 pm by Geneko »

Offline Akado

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Finally BTS is joining the Alt coin pumps... $0.070 has been resistance for the last year.  If it can clear and hold above that, there is a good chance the bear market is over.

I am skeptical since BTS isn't really outperforming many currencies.  Dash and ETH are getting hundreds of millions of dollars pumped into them, while BTS is only up 7 mil.  Once the alt coin pump is over, how well BTS holds up will show if the bear market is done.  If bts breaks $0.070 but fail to hold above for more than a few days, BTS will probably test the lows again.

I thought we were looking at a failed bounce a few days ago, but it looks like we are going to give $.007 a test.  A break and hold above would finally move this thing out of it's seemingly never ending downtrend... It's still not showing a ton of relative strength vs the other alts though... It still hasn't made its way up the overall rankings ladder.  Plus this pump just seems to be a constant rotation between different alts, I mean look at the rocket that Bytecoin has been on...not sure what is causing that.

Yeah most likely just a random pump. Plus I saw the weekly chart and every time there is a big selloff, there was a pump after, so this might be also it. Nonetheless, there are still lot's of people who waited a long time to get rid of their bags. I'm waiting to see it back to 300 satoshis and see if it holds. If it does I will probably start accumulating. We broke 2year long down trend and volume is increasing, it just needs to keep going on.
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Offline lil_jay890

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Finally BTS is joining the Alt coin pumps... $0.070 has been resistance for the last year.  If it can clear and hold above that, there is a good chance the bear market is over.

I am skeptical since BTS isn't really outperforming many currencies.  Dash and ETH are getting hundreds of millions of dollars pumped into them, while BTS is only up 7 mil.  Once the alt coin pump is over, how well BTS holds up will show if the bear market is done.  If bts breaks $0.070 but fail to hold above for more than a few days, BTS will probably test the lows again.

I thought we were looking at a failed bounce a few days ago, but it looks like we are going to give $.007 a test.  A break and hold above would finally move this thing out of it's seemingly never ending downtrend... It's still not showing a ton of relative strength vs the other alts though... It still hasn't made its way up the overall rankings ladder.  Plus this pump just seems to be a constant rotation between different alts, I mean look at the rocket that Bytecoin has been on...not sure what is causing that.

Offline intelliguy

Coinmarketcap ranks the exchanges (including the DEX) by the volume of bts traded in 24/hours.

Not really.

By default, it lists coins by current trading price vs coins in circulation.

While it's true, you can sort by trading volume, every teen trader that chases altcoins, only looks at the default sorted page.

#33 Bitshares is trading at 0.006079 with 2,592,030,000 in circulation  (2.5 billion coins) = $15,757,365

AND

#35 Siacoin is trading at 0.000605 with 24,551,360,204 in circulation  (24.5 billion coins) = $14,852,640

....so coinmarketcap will soon make Siacoin surpass Bitshares, if Siacoin's prices moves just a little more, or they put more coins in circulation.

(none of this has to do with trading volume in the last 24 hours)



« Last Edit: March 29, 2017, 02:39:58 pm by intelliguy »
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Offline alt

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I saw you ask for the source of usd/bts feed price in btsbots.com
first I get all order book include
btc38.com:      CNY/BTS
poloniex.com: BTC/BTS
DEX:                    CNY/BTS  USD/BTS OPEN.BTC/BTS
yunbi.com:       CNY/BTS

then transform all orders to price BTC/BTS(also need computed BTC, CNY, USD rate before)
finally find the best price which can  match all these order with max volume.

the script is open source. you can search btsprice in github


You should start a new thread and concisely explain your idea.

point to note: there is no USD:BTS market on poloniex

Offline JonnyB

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You should start a new thread and concisely explain your idea.

point to note: there is no USD:BTS market on poloniex
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Offline MarkoPaasila

I don't know if "price discussion" is the right place to discuss this, but I'll reply here.

Isn't the core exchange rate given a certain weight in the price feed - so the settlement price doesn't solely depend on external sources? Now if that is the case, what if this external price feed already contains the exchange rate of the DEX with a certain weight, as seems to be the case with CMC. If the DEX volume is the largest, it would be the dominant source of the price.

And another thought: If BTS was more expensive on the DEX, wouldnt' people go to Poloniex to buy BTS off the order books, and migrate them to the DEX. And vice-versa; people willing to liquidate BTS would prefer the DEX, after which the BTS would probably stay on the DEX and the user would exit with some OPEN.USDT.

However, people always run to where the largest noise is... We're not shooting fireworks off, nor is there any band playing.   We have the quietest party on the block.
"Faking volume" so that the volume listed by third parties increases and we "make some noise". Coinmarketcap ranks the exchanges (including the DEX) by the volume of bts traded in 24/hours.

Currently, the DEX ranks #3 by USD volume. $9,000 traded in 24hrs.
The #1 exchange is Poloniex, who trade $100k worth of bts per 24 hours.
To become #1 exchange (on a single given day) the DEX has to achieve another $90k volume of bitUSD traded vs bts.



Moving up the ranks so fast would get the DEX on a few more people's radars.
It DOES NOT MATTER THAT PEOPLE KNOW IT'S FAKE.
EXPOSURE
EXPOSURE
EXPOSURE

"Faking volume" is trading bitUSD:bts between 2 accounts owned by one person.
It's possible to make about 5,000 trades in a 24/hr period. (1 trade per ~20seconds)
Each trade would cost about 0.5bts.
5,000 trades * 0.5bts fee per trade = 2,500bts in total fees (paid to the network) to fake volume for 24hours.
At a price of $0.0056USD per bts; 2.5k bts would cost $14 per 24/hrs


A "Faker" who wants to boost the EXPOSURE of the DEX, would need capital (a fund of bitUSD and a fund of bts) to use to repeatedly trade back and forth.


If the target is to gain an extra $90,000 worth of volume (to rank #1 exchange):
$90,000(volume) / 5000 (# of trades) = $18.
$18 traded back and forth 5,000 times would produce $90,000 worth of volume, which would show up on coinmarket cap. Raising BitShares awareness, and getting exposure.

$18 is the minimum capital, and it would cost a flat rate of $14 per day.


If the "Faker" had $500 worth of capital, the daily "faked volume" would be $500*5,000 trades = $2.5Million. 24/hr volume. CRAY

Could a worker proposal fulfill this need?


Currently the lowest paid worker advertises on 8btc.com, costing 8,400bts per day.

The same payrate being directed to a "Fake Volume Bot" would enable 5,000 trades per day, costing -2,500 bts per day. This leaves 5,900bts per day to accumulate in the capital fund.

If the worker proposal was accepted and properly/securely implemented:


Day 1: Bot has 5,900bts in capital (worth $33bitUSD). Bot pays $14 in fees to make the trades. The bot "fakes" $165k worth of volume on this day ($33*5,000)

Day 2: Bot has (5,900+5,900bts) worth $66bitUSD. Bot pays $14 in feeshttps://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?action=post;msg=303984;topic=16894.3315 to make the trades.
The bot "fakes" $330k worth of volume on this day.

...Day 31: After 1 month the bot would have (5,900*31) 182kbts ($1000) accumulated in capital. The bot would spend 2,500bts (~$14) in fees on this day. The bot "fakes" $5,000,000 volume per day after 1 month of starting.

FIVE MILLION DOLLARS OF VOLUME PER DAY

« Last Edit: March 29, 2017, 12:32:52 pm by MarkoPaasila »

Offline BunkerChainLabs-DataSecurityNode

If the worker proposal was accepted and properly/securely implemented:[/b][/u][/size]

Day 1: Bot has 5,900bts in capital (worth $33bitUSD). Bot pays $14 in fees to make the trades. The bot "fakes" $165k worth of volume on this day ($33*5,000)

Day 2: Bot has (5,900+5,900bts) worth $66bitUSD. Bot pays $14 in feeshttps://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?action=post;msg=303984;topic=16894.3315 to make the trades.
The bot "fakes" $330k worth of volume on this day.

...Day 31: After 1 month the bot would have (5,900*31) 182kbts ($1000) accumulated in capital. The bot would spend 2,500bts (~$14) in fees on this day. The bot "fakes" $5,000,000 volume per day after 1 month of starting.

FIVE MILLION DOLLARS OF VOLUME PER DAY


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Offline Permie

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However, people always run to where the largest noise is... We're not shooting fireworks off, nor is there any band playing.   We have the quietest party on the block.
"Faking volume" so that the volume listed by third parties increases and we "make some noise". Coinmarketcap ranks the exchanges (including the DEX) by the volume of bts traded in 24/hours.

Currently, the DEX ranks #3 by USD volume. $9,000 traded in 24hrs.
The #1 exchange is Poloniex, who trade $100k worth of bts per 24 hours.
To become #1 exchange (on a single given day) the DEX has to achieve another $90k volume of bitUSD traded vs bts.



Moving up the ranks so fast would get the DEX on a few more people's radars.
It DOES NOT MATTER THAT PEOPLE KNOW IT'S FAKE.
EXPOSURE
EXPOSURE
EXPOSURE

"Faking volume" is trading bitUSD:bts between 2 accounts owned by one person.
It's possible to make about 5,000 trades in a 24/hr period. (1 trade per ~20seconds)
Each trade would cost about 0.5bts.
5,000 trades * 0.5bts fee per trade = 2,500bts in total fees (paid to the network) to fake volume for 24hours.
At a price of $0.0056USD per bts; 2.5k bts would cost $14 per 24/hrs


A "Faker" who wants to boost the EXPOSURE of the DEX, would need capital (a fund of bitUSD and a fund of bts) to use to repeatedly trade back and forth.


If the target is to gain an extra $90,000 worth of volume (to rank #1 exchange):
$90,000(volume) / 5000 (# of trades) = $18.
$18 traded back and forth 5,000 times would produce $90,000 worth of volume, which would show up on coinmarket cap. Raising BitShares awareness, and getting exposure.

$18 is the minimum capital, and it would cost a flat rate of $14 per day.


If the "Faker" had $500 worth of capital, the daily "faked volume" would be $500*5,000 trades = $2.5Million. 24/hr volume. CRAY

Could a worker proposal fulfill this need?


Currently the lowest paid worker advertises on 8btc.com, costing 8,400bts per day.

The same payrate being directed to a "Fake Volume Bot" would enable 5,000 trades per day, costing -2,500 bts per day. This leaves 5,900bts per day to accumulate in the capital fund.

If the worker proposal was accepted and properly/securely implemented:


Day 1: Bot has 5,900bts in capital (worth $33bitUSD). Bot pays $14 in fees to make the trades. The bot "fakes" $165k worth of volume on this day ($33*5,000)

Day 2: Bot has (5,900+5,900bts) worth $66bitUSD. Bot pays $14 in fees to make the trades.
The bot "fakes" $330k worth of volume on this day.

...Day 31: After 1 month the bot would have (5,900*31) 182kbts ($1000) accumulated in capital. The bot would spend 2,500bts (~$14) in fees on this day. The bot "fakes" $5,000,000 volume per day after 1 month of starting.

FIVE MILLION DOLLARS OF VOLUME PER DAY
« Last Edit: March 29, 2017, 02:03:40 pm by Permie »
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Offline intelliguy

And your goal is most certainly NOT to provide constructive criticism.  That would actually be useful and welcomed.  But your M.O. is to create fear, uncertainty and doubt.   You do that by constructing false narratives based loosely on just enough facts to sound credible to those who are unsuspecting.  I've seen your basement-dwelling type a thousand times over the years.  Get it?

I disagree with you tbone.  Everything is open for discussion. Let's not attack each other's character and just deal with the facts.

As far as landing people in Jail, exchanges could simply modify their terms of service, and state that voting rights are retained with the exchange for all BTS that are currently deposited, and they'd be fine.  (Most users don't read terms of service and will tacitly agree to anything). In addition Graphene and the Bitshares blockchain are currently unregulated as far as I know.

We need to get back to the ideas on how get more traction with Bitshares looking at its usefulness in comparison to centralized exchanges.

A decentralized exchange for the previous point, I mentioned is great. Ask anyone who lost funds with Mt.Gox or Cryptsy,  or any other exchange... they should be the first ones to love the idea.

We were just started making some progress here. I'd hate to lose the spirit of how we can be creative enough to take this all to the next level.



« Last Edit: March 28, 2017, 11:22:42 pm by intelliguy »
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Offline tbone

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@Thom more importantly I want to stress the lack of marketing. And also that for some reason everyone hates BTS.. Try to say BTS to the moon in Polo troll box twice and you are banned..On the other hand everyone else scream all the time moon for ETH,DASH and everything else they want to promote and no one is banned.. Polo admins hate bts..

Poloniex, a centralized exchange that rakes in profit for a few, hates a decentralized exchange that could steal the money out of their pockets.
Do they hate it because the DEX is a threat to their business?
Or do they hate it because they are mal-informed and just think its one more shitcoin

If the centralized exchanges wanted, they could destroy BTS in a second.  They control enough BTS to vote in whoever they want.  One of the GIANT flaws in bts that almost everyone around here sweeps under the rug or chooses to ignore...  Just another reason DEX adoption has been tepid.

Even if Poloniex colluded with other exchanges, their votes would still be outnumbered by the top few proxies alone, not to mention including individual voters.  So yeah, no, that's yet another bogus theory from the king of FUD.  Oh wait, now you'll spin that exactly the opposite and say the voting power of proxies is a weakness of Bitshares.  Which of course is ridiculous as well.   But facts have never stopped you.  So why would they now?

Hmm... Take the top 4 exchange accounts.  They control almost 750million BTS which outnumbers all the proxies combined... but maybe that isn't a fact in your world.

You are correct though that I think the proxies centralize the system.  Even if the exchanges do nothing, 4-5 people have complete control of the chain.

Tbone, i've tried not to attack you personally unlike what you have done to me.  I try to point out flaws with the system. But if you are going berate someone for not using "facts", try using some facts yourself.

You're including cold wallets?  Like these major exchanges are going to defeat the purpose of having cold wallets and put customer funds at risk?  That's not realistic.  And even if it was realistic, then multiple exchanges would still have to collude, which is also unrealistic since that means they would be using the funds of their customer to destroy the investment of said customers. 

So let's see.  An exchange would have to do something they are extremely unlikely to do, and which would probably land them in jail for a long time.  They would have to collude with others and convince them to also engage in this incredibly stupid, risky, and unethical behavior.  And they would have to risk large amounts of funds in cold storage to do all of this.  This is so far fetched.

And your goal is most certainly NOT to provide constructive criticism.  That would actually be useful and welcomed.  But your M.O. is to create fear, uncertainty and doubt.   You do that by constructing false narratives based loosely on just enough facts to sound credible to those who are unsuspecting.  I've seen your basement-dwelling type a thousand times over the years.  Get it?

Offline lil_jay890

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@Thom more importantly I want to stress the lack of marketing. And also that for some reason everyone hates BTS.. Try to say BTS to the moon in Polo troll box twice and you are banned..On the other hand everyone else scream all the time moon for ETH,DASH and everything else they want to promote and no one is banned.. Polo admins hate bts..

Poloniex, a centralized exchange that rakes in profit for a few, hates a decentralized exchange that could steal the money out of their pockets.
Do they hate it because the DEX is a threat to their business?
Or do they hate it because they are mal-informed and just think its one more shitcoin

If the centralized exchanges wanted, they could destroy BTS in a second.  They control enough BTS to vote in whoever they want.  One of the GIANT flaws in bts that almost everyone around here sweeps under the rug or chooses to ignore...  Just another reason DEX adoption has been tepid.

Even if Poloniex colluded with other exchanges, their votes would still be outnumbered by the top few proxies alone, not to mention including individual voters.  So yeah, no, that's yet another bogus theory from the king of FUD.  Oh wait, now you'll spin that exactly the opposite and say the voting power of proxies is a weakness of Bitshares.  Which of course is ridiculous as well.   But facts have never stopped you.  So why would they now?

Hmm... Take the top 4 exchange accounts.  They control almost 750million BTS which outnumbers all the proxies combined... but maybe that isn't a fact in your world.

You are correct though that I think the proxies centralize the system.  Even if the exchanges do nothing, 4-5 people have complete control of the chain.

Tbone, i've tried not to attack you personally unlike what you have done to me.  I try to point out flaws with the system. But if you are going berate someone for not using "facts", try using some facts yourself.