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Messages - Yao

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61
首先,一直在bitCNY市场交易的用户都能注意到一个现象:bitCNY在BTS上涨趋势中是基本不会有溢价的,而在下跌趋势中基本都会溢价10%左右。

而且因为bitCNY可以通过MagicWallet提供的承兑服务与 Fiat CNY(法定货币)进行自由兑换(兑换汇率是动态的,市场化的),bitCNY 成为了 Fiat CNY(银行账户里的RMB)进出DEX的通道,而且兑换汇率基本与bitCNY的溢价联动:溢价10%左右的时候Deposit fee (充值费率)是10%左右,Withdrawal fee(提现费率)是-10%左右。

为什么下跌趋势中会长期溢价10%?不是5%、15%?一个很可能的原因是:因为 Maximum short squeeze ratio(MSSR)=1.1,被强制平仓的BTS会以10% off(低于市场价10%)的价格挂卖单卖出,所以当BTS的市场价格下跌时,买家可以预见到:一旦市场价格下跌形成趋势将会触发大量的抵押仓被强制关闭仓位,而拍卖的BTS比市场价便宜10%,那么,你会在市场价买入还是以10% off (便宜10%)的价格下订单并等着?这样一来买盘价格就会逐步后退,一开始会低于市场价(在中心化交易所的BTS价格)的1% off ,然后2%off再到5% off、10% off甚至12% off、15% off。而这时,在MagicWallet承兑平台,bitCNY的出入金手续费也跟着联动。所以你会看到:市场中有这样一种力量,他们在市场上升期逐步囤积bitCNY,然后在市场反转时,通过打击中心化交易所的BTS价格,可以让越来越多的 bitCNY 抵押债仓被强制关闭仓位,他们会获得超过10%的收益。因为MSSR=1.10,市场可以预期爆仓单将会打九折卖出,买一价格就会撤退10%,所以,他们可以毫不费力地快速将DEX里面的BTS价格砸到比中心化交易所低10%,然后bitCNY就溢价10%了。

其次,将MSSR(Maximum short squeeze ratio)从1.1调整到1.05也许是一个可以尝试的试验。我们可以借此观察一段时间,看长期维持在10%左右的溢价(出入金手续费)会不会降低到5%左右。如果结果确实如此,那么MSSR将可以成为一种灵活应对市场趋势的可调参数工具:在下跌趋势中,可以调整为1.05、1.02、1.005、1.001甚至1.0,而在上升趋势中,如有必要(比如牛市市场疯狂的时候)则可以调整到1.1甚至1.2、1.3、甚至1.5以打击激进的高杠杆抵押,让系统杠杆率不至于太高。

另外,我建议由 committee-account 控制的参数 Force settlement offset of SmartCoins (强清补偿比例,目前bitCNY为5%)应该与MSSR一起作为组合工具:在MSSR降低后高杠杆抵押仓会变得更激进,从而进一步推升系统杠杆率。但,如果我们将Force settlement offset of SmartCoins (强清补偿比例)从5%或者2%调整为0%甚至-1%,我们就可以用自由市场的力量来打击杠杆率太高的抵押仓:鼓励想以市场价购买大量BTS的人用发起Force settlement的方式购买BTS——抵押率最低的Margin positions(债仓)将逐个被强制以市场价进行结算。



Non-Chinese users can use Google Translate to understand this Chinese, for example, translation into English would be like this:


First of all, users who have been trading in the bitCNY market can notice a phenomenon: bitCNY is basically not a premium in the BTS uptrend, and basically has a premium of about 10% in the downtrend.

And because bitCNY can be freely exchanged with Fiat CNY (legal currency) through the acceptance service provided by MagicWallet (the exchange rate is dynamic and market-oriented), bitCNY becomes the channel for Fiat CNY (RMB in bank account) to enter and exit DEX, and The exchange rate is basically linked to the premium of bitCNY: when the premium is about 10%, the Deposit fee is about 10%, and the Withdrawal fee is about -10%.

Why is there a long-term premium of 10% in the downtrend? Not 5%, 15%? A very likely reason is that because the Maximum short squeeze ratio (MSSR) = 1.1, the BTS that is forced to close the position will sell at 10% off (10% below the market price), so the market price of the BTS When falling, buyers can foresee that once the market price declines will trigger a large number of mortgages to be forced to close the position, and the auction BTS is 10% cheaper than the market price, then you will buy at the market price or 10 % off (10% cheaper) price to place an order and wait? As a result, the buying price will gradually retreat, starting at 1% off the market price (on the BTS price of the central exchange), then 2% off to 5% off, 10% off or even 12% off , 15% off. At this time, in the MagicWallet acceptance platform, bitCNY's deposit and withdrawal fees are also linked. You see, there is such a force in the market that they gradually hoard bitCNY during the market upswing, and then when the market reverses, by hitting CEX's BTS price, more and more bitCNY shorter can be forced to close the position, they will get more than 10 % of revenue. Because MSSR=1.10, the market can expect the margin call order sell price to be 10% off,  then bid price will retreat by 10%. So they can effortlessly quickly push the BTS price in DEX to 10% lower than CEX, and then bitCNY is 10% premium.

Second, adjusting the MSSR (Maximum short squeeze ratio) from 1.1 to 1.05 may be an experiment that can be tried. We can use this to observe for a period of time, and see if the premium (the deposit and withdrawal fee) that is maintained at around 10% for a long time will be reduced to about 5%. If this is the case, MSSR will be a tunable tool for responding flexibly to market trends: in the downtrend, it can be adjusted to 1.05, 1.02, 1.005, 1.001 or even 1.0, and in the uptrend, if necessary ( For example, when the bull market is crazy, it can be adjusted to 1.1 or even 1.2, 1.3, or even 1.5 to combat aggressive high-leverage mortgages, so that the system leverage is not too high.

In addition, I recommend that the Force settlement offset of SmartCoins, which is controlled by the commit-account, should be used as a combination tool with the MSSR: the high-leverage mortgage will become more aggressive after the MSSR is lowered. This further pushes up the system leverage. However, if we adjust the Force settlement offset of SmartCoins from 5% or 2% to 0% or even -1%, we can use the power of the free market to combat mortgages with too high leverage: Encourage Those who want to buy a large number of BTSs at market prices buy BTS by initiating Force settlement – ​​Margin positions with the lowest mortgage rate will be forced to settle at market prices one by one.

62
Suggestion was not for core to use MAX of price feeds...core would still use median...suggestion was for individual pricefeeds to take the max between CEXs and DEX...
The more I think about, the more merits I can find in this approach. Still, I do not think we can weight DEX and CEX equally, we should stick with *VOLUME* and than it is no different than
considering the DEX as much an exchange as any other too, from point of view of the feed produer

Firstly, a note, volume can be faked.

As of writing, among all CEXs, Poloniex's BTS/BTC market has the best market depth (which IMHO is liquidity), around 2M BTS on each side (aka walls) near the center.

Depth of all other CEXs are far less, for example, ZB.com's BTS/USDT market has only 200K BTS on the book near the center.

However, according to CoinMarketCap (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitshares/#markets), Poloniex only produced 2% of total volume, while ZB produced more than 20%, not to mention that LBank has even less BTS on the book but generated more total volume.

Another metrics is total BTS hold in their wallets, which should be somehow positively correlated to volume. From https://cryptofresh.com/ballots, we can see Poloniex has 187M BTS in their wallet and generated 3M daily volume, ZB has around 45M and generated around 20M daily volume. LBank? I don't even know which account is theirs. I guess I'll change my price feed script to weight price by this metrics.

I'd say price on Poloniex is realer than ZB or LBank. With deeper depth on the book, it's harder to push the price up or down.

However, who knows whether the amounts on the book are real? The big walls could be (and likely are) set by one person, in this case he can cancel it at any time and push the price towards any direction when he wants.

To get a stabler price, we need to make market, say, put up real buy and sell walls on the centralized exchanges. Anyway, there are many risks involved if to do so.

Another option is to make market in the DEX. We have OpenLedger, Gdex, CryptoBridge and etc are actually same as CEXs, we can put up walls there, produce volumes there. No, don't count in bitAssets markets, they're derivatives, their value need to be calculated out thus hard to be used directly.

I am totally agree with @abit

在数据不透明的中心化交易所,“量作假”很容易(刷量),“深度作假”也很容易(卖单卖的是白条,买单用的是假钱,可以随时撤单,不幸成交就是亏空,交易所会想办法弥补亏空),对于没有量也没有深度的交易所“价格作假”也很容易。

喂价需要一个可信赖的“真量”、“真深度”从而有“真价格”的市场,这样的市场只能在基于BitShares这样的区块链搭建的透明交易所里实现。同时 @abit 也提到不能依靠bitCNY(以及所有 SmartCoins)这类衍生品市场,衍生品的价格本身受影响因素较多(充提费率的人为设定因素、内外盘搬砖效率、市场波动频率和幅度、喂价脚本计算价格的策略和数据源的可信度……等),价格失真是常态。那就需要发展BitShares的网关资产(即UIA代币)市场,让BTS直接与“网关法币”(gateway Fait,Fait CNY/USD、……)和“网关加密资产”(gateway crypto-assets,XXX.BTC/ETH/EOS、……)进行交易产生可靠的市场价格,但需要解决的问题是UIA本身的透明度。

CryptoBridge在“网关加密资产”(gateway crypto-assets)的透明度方面做了很好的探索,用户充值BTC时发行(issue)等额的BRIDGE.BTC,而用户提现BTC时就销毁(burn)等额的BRIDGE.BTC,实际流通的BRIDGE.BTC与CryptoBridge网关托管的真实BTC是基本相同的,公开其网关的BTC地址即可证实其可靠性!

我们还需要解决的是“网关法币”(gateway Fait)的透明度和可靠性,有以下几种方式:
①银行账户背书的网关法币监管等政策风险较大,透明性则需要通过第三方审计等方式来证明其有100%真实法币进行背书,就像USDT。
②直接用USDT,虽然任何人都可通过区块链进行审计,但USDT本身是需要传统的第三方审计的。
③还有一种相对可靠方式:以bitCNY为100%备付金背书发行替代稳定货币,如XCNY,1XCNY=¥1.00。多签管理的备付金托管账户的bitCNY在BitShares链上可查,XCNY的流通量在BitShares链上也可查,这样透明性和可靠性都有保证。

64
中文(Chinese) / Re: 严重BUG,可以任意操作别人帐号
« on: December 26, 2017, 02:53:28 pm »
jesus-coin 这个是别人的账号?
你的账号是什么?你的这个能控制 jesus-coin 这个账号的钱包里有几个账号?

你看下你的这些账号里的所有公钥,是不是有跟 jesus-coin 一样的公钥?也就是看你的账号的“账户权限”、“活跃权限”有没有跟下面这两个一样的:BTS5iavugBUH517iRkzL54B53GtcieXzZ6zspiiwE3umrTFGXYwN6
BTS6ttNrvy4CXKmW36GxdXnyU2z1mprcKteUrqDTz1u9a7QSNaoR8

65
投票支持 [member=18687]abit[/member] 提出的 BSIP26、BSIP27 两个开发工作提案。
投票代理账号 yao 已投票支持。

66
中文(Chinese) / Re: 关于 BSIP 26 和 27 功能开发的投票
« on: November 26, 2017, 10:17:33 am »
投票代理账号 yao 已投票支持。

67
yao 已投票支持!

68
 +5%
营销上架 BTS 是第一步,陆续再把 bitCNY 和 bitUSD 推销给交易平台作为法币入金通道,比特股未来可期!

69
中文(Chinese) / Re: 为什么总提示交易广播失败?
« on: October 19, 2017, 02:58:23 pm »
广播失败说明当前的网络连接与比特股区块链通信不畅。

1、可能是网页钱包访问不畅(使用网页钱包的情况,访问网页钱包的服务器通信不畅),换个其他的网页钱包试试导入钱包后登录,比如:
  • 官方网页钱包: bitshares.org/wallet
  • OpenLedger:openledger.io 或 openledger.hk 或 bitshares.openledger.info
  • 比特帝国:bit.btsabc.org
  • HelloBTS:hellobts.com
  • DACPLAY:bitshares.dacplay.org
  • 俄国版 RuDEX:market.rudex.org
彻底杜绝访问网页钱包服务器(网页钱包实际上是在网页钱包提供者的服务器上创建了一个本地钱包免费供用户使用)不畅的方式就是使用本地轻钱包客户端,比特股官网首页点 “Download”按钮即可下载(确保你的计算机操作系统是 64 位的,不能再 32 位系统上运行)。


2、也可能是 API 服务器通信不畅。更换API接入点的教程:http://btsabc.org/article-1080-1.html



要彻底杜绝以上两种情况,那就只能用重钱包了。重钱包 = 本地轻钱包客户端 + 自建本地 witness_node 数据节点作为 API 供本地轻钱包客户端调用。重钱包操作教程去 btsabc.org 找。

70
广播失败说明当前的网络连接与比特股区块链通信不畅。

1、可能是网页钱包访问不畅(使用网页钱包的情况,访问网页钱包的服务器通信不畅),换个其他的网页钱包试试导入钱包后登录,比如:
  • 官方网页钱包: bitshares.org/wallet
  • OpenLedger:openledger.io 或 openledger.hk 或 bitshares.openledger.info
  • 比特帝国:bit.btsabc.org
  • HelloBTS:hellobts.com
  • DACPLAY:bitshares.dacplay.org
  • 俄国版 RuDEX:market.rudex.org
彻底杜绝访问网页钱包服务器(网页钱包实际上是在网页钱包提供者的服务器上创建了一个本地钱包免费供用户使用)不畅的方式就是使用本地轻钱包客户端,比特股官网首页点 “Download”按钮即可下载(确保你的计算机操作系统是 64 位的,不能再 32 位系统上运行)。

2、也可能是 API 服务器通信不畅。按照 [member=15779]wuxuqiang[/member] 贴的教程更换 API 服务接入点。


要彻底杜绝以上两种情况,那就只能用重钱包了。重钱包 = 本地轻钱包客户端 + 自建本地 witness_node 数据节点作为 API 供本地轻钱包客户端调用。重钱包操作教程去 btsabc.org 找。

71
你输入的拟创建账号为高级账号的时候不是有如下提示么:
Quote
这是高级账户名。高级账户名的注册需要花费更多,因为无法通过免费水龙头服务进行注册。请选择其他名字,包含至少一个横杠、数字或者不含元音字母

1、账号字符长度要求不少于 3 位。如果你注册 yyy.xxx.zzz 这样的分段组合的账号,每一段都要求不少于 3 位,且每一段都有 2、3 项的规则限制。
2、纯字母账号里含了元音字母(a/e/i/y/o/u)就是高级账号,只有终身会员账号才有资格付费注册高级账号。
3、账号里含有横杠、数字或者不含元音字母那就是非高级账号了,可以免费注册。

72
door.one 什么来头?

73
投票支持见证人 crazybit!
社区的开发力量都陆续自发以自己的思路为比特股添砖加瓦共筑 BTS 生态,好现象!
投票代理人 yao 已投票支持见证人 crazybit。

建议 [member=4784]crazybit[/member] 还是在 BitShares Forum » Main » Stakeholder Proposals 版块发一个 Witness Proposal 来拉票吧。

74
中文(Chinese) / Re: 鲁尼的文章
« on: September 04, 2017, 01:38:24 pm »
原来Ronny是鲁尼。。。 +5%
原来鲁尼是 Ronny。。。 :D

75
社区的开发力量都陆续自发以自己的思路为比特股添砖加瓦共筑 BTS 生态,好现象!
投票代理人 yao 已投票支持见证人 crazybit。

建议 [member=4784]crazybit[/member] 还是在 BitShares Forum » Main » Stakeholder Proposals 版块发一个 Witness Proposal 来拉票吧。

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