WEEKLY MACRO & CRYPTO DIGEST: NOVEMBER 9–13
Greetings, traders! 👋

A critical inflation week is here. US CPI drops Tuesday, and Bitcoin is sitting right on the 200-day moving average - the level that decides whether this correction becomes a full-blown downtrend.

All times in UTC for our global community.

💵WHY BTC ISN'T BOUNCING: THE MACRO BACKDROP

Democrats won both chambers. Markets are pricing in stricter crypto regulation, and Senate Democrat Richard Blumenthal has already demanded documents from Binance, Tether, and World Liberty Financial by January 4, 2027.

NFP came in hot. October payrolls rose +165K vs. consensus +65K. Unemployment fell to 4.1%. This reinforced expectations that the Fed stays hawkish - markets now price ~77% odds of a December hike . Higher rates = pressure on risk assets.

The technical line that matters: $73,170. This is the 200-day moving average. BTC hasn't closed below it since August 18. A confirmed break below signals a shift to a bearish long-term trend. Above it, the correction remains within a normal range.

📅 MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9
🇨🇳 01:30 UTC - China CPI (Oct)

📅 TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 10 - US CPI DAY 🔥
🌐 Digital Asset Summit 2026 - London (Nov 10-11). Institutional focus on custody, tokenization, and MiCA regulation.
🇺🇸 13:30 UTC - US CPI (Oct) - Consensus: +0.3% MoM headline, +0.2% core. This is the key data point before the December FOMC.

📅 WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 11
🇩🇪 07:00 UTC - Germany CPI (Oct Final)
🇪🇺 09:45 UTC - ECB President Lagarde speech

📅 THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12
🇬🇧 07:00 UTC - UK GDP (Q3 Prelim)
🇪🇺 09:00 UTC - ECB Monthly Report
🇺🇸 13:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
🇺🇸 15:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales (Oct)
🔓 PUMP unlock - ~9.17B tokens (~$38.0M)

📅 FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 13 — PPI + OPTIONS EXPIRY
🇺🇸 13:30 UTC - US PPI (Oct) - Consensus: +0.4% MoM
📊 08:00 UTC - Deribit Options Expiry - BTC OI ~$89.5M, P/C ratio 1.25 (put-heavy)

📊 POLYMARKET BTC PRICE OUTLOOK
Real money on Polymarket (>$82M volume) prices BTC hitting these levels before 2027:

🔹 $70,000 - 52% chance (downside test)
🔹 $90,000 - 24% chance
🔹 $100,000 - 9% chance

November contracts: 81% chance of touching $77,500, 56% for $80,000, and 61% for $72,500.

Kalshi year-end settlement: $75K-$79,999 leads at 17.6%, followed closely by $70K-$74,999 at 17.5%.

⚡️ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1️⃣ US CPI (Tue) - With December hike odds at ~77%, a hot core print could cement tightening. A soft print might offer relief, but sticky services inflation remains the risk .
2️⃣ $73,170 - The 200-Day MA - The single most important level on the chart. A daily close below confirms a trend shift. Watch it closely.
3️⃣ Options Expiry (Fri) - BTC OI is put-heavy (P/C 1.25), suggesting hedging demand. Max pain positioning can still create volatility.

Stay sharp. CPI and the 200-day MA decide the next move.


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WEEKLY MACRO & CRYPTO DIGEST: OCTOBER 5 - 11
Greetings, traders! 👋

Q4 is off to a strong start. BTC is holding above $85K after softer jobs data, and markets are pricing in a lower chance of an October Fed hike. This week brings FOMC Minutes, PPI data, and the TOKEN2049 summit in Singapore.

All times in UTC for our global community.

📅 MONDAY, OCTOBER 5
🇺🇸 13:45 UTC - US Services & Composite PMI (Sept Final)
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - ISM Services PMI (Sept)
🔓 Ethena unlock - ~171.88M tokens (~$41.5M), 3.77% of supply

📊 BTC at ~$86,000, up 1.1% on the day after touching $86,995. Softer US jobs data (only 29K new payrolls, unemployment 4.2%) pushed October Fed hike odds from ~70% to ~14%.

📅 TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6
🇦🇺 04:30 UTC - RBA Rate Decision
🇪🇺 09:00 UTC - EU Retail Sales (Aug)
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - US Trade Balance (Aug)

📅 WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7:  TOKEN2049 + FOMC MINUTES
🚀 TOKEN2049 Singapore (Oct 7-8) - Asia's flagship crypto event
🇺🇸 14:30 UTC - US Crude Oil Inventories
🇺🇸 18:00 UTC - FOMC Minutes: Markets will parse for clues on the Fed's next move

📅 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
🇺🇸 20:30 UTC - Fed Balance Sheet

📅 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - Michigan Inflation Expectations (Oct Prelim)

📅 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10
🔓 Babylon  unlock - ~136M tokens (~$47.6M)

📊 POLYMARKET BTC PRICE OUTLOOK
Real money on Polymarket prices BTC hitting these levels before the end of October:

🔹 $90,000 — 60% chance
🔹 $80,000 downside — 49.5% chance
Key context: Settlement occurs if BTC merely touches these levels on a 1-minute candle on Binance . This creates a narrow battlefield where $85K-$90K is the primary resistance zone, while $80K-$82K is the key support battle line.

Longer-term view (year-end): Polymarket traders give BTC a 69% chance of hitting $85K, 49% for $90K, and 29% for $100K by Dec 31.

⚡️ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1️⃣ FOMC Minutes (Wed): After the softer jobs data, markets want confirmation on the Fed's stance. Any hawkish signal could pressure risk assets .
2️⃣ TOKEN2049 (Wed-Thu): Singapore's biggest crypto event. Potential announcements could move sentiment across the market.
3️⃣ Technical Levels - BTC is consolidating between $84K-$87K. A daily close above $87K targets $89K-$90K; a break below $82K exposes $80K.

Stay sharp. FOMC Minutes and TOKEN2049 set the tone.


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Looks like this post is not related to BitShares. I'll move it to the Random Discussion board.

Lots of developments have taken place since the worker proposal expired: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=33952.msg351179#new

Check out the donation page in app to become the referrer of new accounts created using the Bitshares Astro UI app!

https://hive.blog/hive-120117/@nftea.gallery/another-week-s-bitshares-astro-ui-developments-released-to-the-public-ux-improvements-fixes-optimziations-galore

Release notes:

Fix for MacOS loading charting library properly.

Fix search bar functionality in the documentation feature.

Fix for same-t fund update dialog.

Added simplified Trollbox view to footer of DEX limit order page, Instant Trade page and the Simple Asset Swap page.

Created tip dialog for Trollbox messages and Forum posts/replies.

Show balances within asset selector when choosing from balance assets.

Add sort and filter options to credit offers list page.

Add sort and filter options to list of smartcoins page.

Add sort to call order columns.

Add hide/unhide global settled assets on 'borrowable smartcoins' and 'bid on smartcoin settlement' pages.

Add actions to favourite items.

Add user and issuer actions on asset balance page.

UX improvements for the credit borrow page, open orders page, create vesting balance page, issued asset page, credit deal repayment dialog,

Temporarily hide the blind transfer page until we've resolved the issues blocking its full implementation.

Fixes to market order calculations, labelling and tooltips.

Make sure we use the one asset selection dialog component.

Reordered items on homepage and in navbar.

Code optimizations & dead code removal.

Improved performance of 'issue collateralized debt' smartcoin list page.

Theme improvements for most pages and dialogs.

Package dependency version updates

https://hive.blog/hive-120117/@nftea.gallery/another-week-s-bitshares-astro-ui-developments-released-to-the-public-ux-improvements-fixes-optimziations-galore

TorVault – Monero escrow with programmable rules (.onion) | TAO coming soon

Hey everyone,

TorVault is a Monero escrow service running as a Tor hidden service.

Features:

• Programmable vaults (2-of-2, 2-of-3 with arbiter, time-lock, Dead Man's Switch, manual release)
  
• End-to-end encrypted chat inside the vault
  
• No accounts, no email, no KYC
  
• 1% fee
  
• Bittensor (TAO) support coming soon
  

Note:
Currently custodial (server holds the spend key). Rules are enforced by the platform.

Onion:
ptkxavsfplsxmxeif4753bzmbc3jez5ah2u3lclvyeo6oe4pyazvekid.onion

Feedback and questions welcome.

BTC is back above $80,000 🚀

After absorbing the CLARITY Act failure and the Fed's first rate hike since 2023, Bitcoin refused to break down. That resilience speaks volumes.

Key levels:

🔹 Resistance: $82,000-$82,800 - the defining threshold. A clean break opens $86,000 → $90,000.
🔹 Support: $77,000-$78,000 - short-term defense. Below that, $74,000-$75,000 is the line in the sand.
📊 The $81,000-$86,000 zone holds significant supply from holders who bought higher and may sell into strength.

What's driving the move:

📈 ETF flows reversed positive: $159.5M net inflow on Sept 17, ending two days of heavy outflows.
📈 Analyst consensus turned bullish: 112 analysts now show a BUY consensus on the monthly timeframe, with short-term readings at STRONG BUY.
📈 Market sentiment improving: Fear & Greed Index at 56-57, moving from neutral into greed territory.

The risk to watch:

⚠️ Leverage is rebuilding fast. Open interest has already climbed back above its 180-day average to $9.6B. Rapid re-leveraging can set up another cascade if momentum stalls.
⚠️ Spot demand remains weak. Retail investors are still selling into strength. A sustainable rally needs genuine spot buying, not just derivatives.

Bottom line:

The $80K reclaim is encouraging, but $82,000 is the real test. Bulls need to turn this level from resistance into support before $90K becomes realistic.
If ETF inflows continue and leverage stays controlled, the path to $90K opens. If not, expect another range-bound chop. 



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