Author Topic: Market Report  (Read 9572 times)

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Offline donkeypong

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Re: Market Report
« Reply #90 on: August 21, 2014, 06:45:19 pm »
I will give 1000 BTSX to anybody who gives me a good explanation why his/her PTS from before the end of the AGS donation period  are not in the AGS fund already! (This prize has about $1,000,000 value in about 2-2,5 years in my estimation.)

The only way it makes sense is if you do not like one particular upcoming DAC and you want to sell them PTS shortly before its snapshot day and buy them after it. But which one don't you like? Music - great potential (even though I do not know if anybody is actually developing it). HackerFish is making the lottery (play) DAC into something great - not a simple  casino but a platform for the casinos! Truthcoin is probably just a centralize business on a blockchain, but even so the potential market is in the hundred of millions or revenue....

PS
And sorry I will be the judge what I deem good explanation!
I do not like  DAC A do not qualify! 
Concrete example with numbers will increase your chances!
This offer is good for 5 days.

TheOnion

OK, I'll bite, since I still have PTS that I did not donate or sell. You are asking, basically, why did I hold onto it when I could have garnered a bigger impact via AGS donations? I did both, but I still have plenty of PTS.

Reason 1: The social consensus (f.k.a. the Social Contract) suggests that each DAC allocate at least 10% each to PTS and AGS holders. It can be more than 10% (for example, I believe Music will allocate 25% to each). Initially, most AGS donors were known as investors, while the majority of PTS holders were miners. Now what if there's a reason that a new DAC wants to curry particular favor with miners? Perhaps, for some reason, they are better able to promote that new DAC? More tech savvy, perhaps, when that part of the community is most valuable to an emerging DAC? More loyal? My thought was (and still is) that it's quite possible the AGS holders might be viewed by a new DAC owner as more opportunistic, e.g. more likely to sell a stake, whereas PTS holders might be viewed as better longterm stakeholders. So could a new DAC allocate 10% to AGS and 25% to PTS?

Understand, I am not characterizing AGS donors this way, since I am one myself. But what if AGS holders pump-and-dump-killed a DAC and then public opinion broke in that direction? Or what if techies are really needed to help evangelize and explain a new DAC to the world? I wanted to hedge my bets there.

Reason 2: What if PTS gets a really cool upgrade, or gets cloned with an airdrop to old PTS holders, and its holders come out ahead?

I know there are arguments against both of these. But I think either of these reasons are enough to keep some PTS in my wallet.

EDIT: typo fixed.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2014, 06:50:14 pm by donkeypong »

Offline tonyk

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Re: Market Report
« Reply #91 on: August 21, 2014, 06:57:12 pm »
Just some of my arguments against:
1.You did not provide numbers... If you did you must expect the chance of 1 happening to be a)pretty high (>75% for the more realistic values of .'b') or  b)the difference AGS:PTS to be pretty high.
2. Actually, I consider the chance of AGS>PTS bigger, if ever those two percentages do differ at any point/any DAC.


For your second point - I do not think the value of PTS is in the superiority of the technology behind it. And/or will ever be in that.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2014, 07:01:10 pm by TheOnion »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline donkeypong

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Re: Market Report
« Reply #92 on: August 21, 2014, 07:05:18 pm »
Just some of my arguments against:
1.You did not provide numbers... If you did you must expect the chance of 1 happening to be a)pretty high (>75% for the more realistic values of .'b') or  b)the difference AGS:PTS to be pretty high.
2. Actually, I consider the chance of AGS>PTS bigger, if ever those two percentages do differ at any point/any DAC.

1. In the case of my reasons, numbers would be purely speculative. I don't like to have all my eggs in one basket and these are some reasons why not, but I wouldn't be able to value the probabilities of them occurring. If you're looking for concrete numbers, I don't have them. Some investors use a bit of intuition, as I do.

2. I don't disagree with you. But what if things turned the other way between now and some future DAC snapshot? Remember, we could see many new DACs and forks. We could be talking about months or years from now. Music's model could be used for videos or for e-books. Someone could do a full-scale gambling thing, fantasy sports, celebrity stakes, you name it. BTSX for equities such as orange juice, coffee, porkbellies. This is just the first round and I'd like to hold some PTS.

Offline tonyk

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Re: Market Report
« Reply #93 on: August 21, 2014, 07:11:23 pm »
 :) You can buy 'back' PTS with your BTSX/Launched DACs' profits!  :)
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline donkeypong

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Re: Market Report
« Reply #94 on: August 21, 2014, 07:31:23 pm »
This week, this month, this six months, that's probably true. Which is why I am also an AGS donor and hold my share of BTSX. But will it still be true in a year or two from now? I'll hold some PTS to be sure.

Offline tonyk

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Re: Market Report
« Reply #95 on: August 22, 2014, 02:52:52 am »
Got myself a dose of the PTS holders' buzz.
For me personally, the shares received due to my PTS holding in DNS&VOTE will be worth 0.00021 BTC / #shares per PT). Or about $0.11/# shares per PTS.
I think I am good at those levels.???
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline donkeypong

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Re: Market Report
« Reply #96 on: August 22, 2014, 03:01:19 am »
Got myself a dose of the PTS holders' buzz.
For me personally, the shares received due to my PTS holding in DNS&VOTE will be worth 0.00021 BTC / #shares per PT). Or about $0.11/# shares per PTS.
I think I am good at those levels.???

Glad you like my logic for holding PTS. Feel free to send my reward any time!

Offline tonyk

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Re: Market Report
« Reply #97 on: August 22, 2014, 03:07:21 am »
Unfortunately:
1.I did not have them at AGS donation end time
2.I do not hold the anymore.

So, you are ways from qualifying. This was a gig of my own that I came up with today. :)



[edit]
That being said - if you send me a 20 dollar bill, I will send you 1000 BTS -Just for the fame of being the guy who paid that much for a dollar.  :)
« Last Edit: August 22, 2014, 03:35:35 am by TheOnion »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline donkeypong

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Re: Market Report
« Reply #98 on: August 22, 2014, 03:18:02 am »
Unfortunately:
1.I did not have them at AGS donation end time
2.I do not hold the anymore.

So, you are ways from qualifying. This was a gig of my own that I came up with today. :)

[edit]
That being said - if you send me a 20 dollar bill, I will send you 1000 BTS -Just for the fame of being the guy who paid that much for a dollar.  :)

We can do this electronically, right?


Offline tonyk

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Re: Market Report
« Reply #99 on: August 22, 2014, 03:21:35 am »
Even better - 1000 BTSX for a picture of $20 bill.  :)

 PM me your account name!
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline donkeypong

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Re: Market Report
« Reply #100 on: August 22, 2014, 03:38:46 am »
Thanks for being a stand-up guy. I'll pay it forward to charity. Know any charities who accept BTSX yet?

Offline tonyk

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Re: Market Report
« Reply #101 on: August 22, 2014, 03:43:14 am »

Give them to CLains / his community efforts, if you do not find any charity. They will go to a good cause that way.
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline tonyk

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Re: Market Report
« Reply #102 on: September 09, 2014, 05:53:38 am »
I promised to share my thoughts on the market when I have one. Well today I do.

The topic is:
 
'BitShares Music'
Short Version:

Sell, sell, sell... whenever you get your hands on any bishashares Music shares (called Notes) sell. At whatever price the poor buyer is offering; do not give him a chance to think twice!

Compared to bitMusic Notes, LTBcoin is a stroke of genius!




Long  Version:

-Totally screwed or laughable IPO, depending on your point of view.

Let’s not talk about PTS/AGS holders – getting in 30 % of a worthless product is not much better than getting just 10%, I know getting 10% is insulting nevertheless.
The IPO is designed to follow all well-known path of ‘crypto space’ stupidity –Ethereum style, or ‘known number unknown quantity’ style IPO. In short you pay $5 for X number of shares, but you are totally unaware how many shares will be sold. With every passing day the new buyer get less number of shares per $5 but at least know how many other crazies have bought before them.  The total number of crazies still remains unknown, as there may be many more coming after them.
If this is not enough, the wise DAC creators/founders not just keep the proceeds of the ipo, they also reward themselves with free shares (about 30% of the total DAC’s shares, never the less!)



-Suspicious business model and incentive structure.

      -Well the IPO was the fun part, there the creators of this DAC just rob you in bright daylight and that is in a way honorable of them.
While they thought hard for their 30-35% free notes, in the business model we see that those Notes are not worth much. They entitle you to transactions fees… and that is pretty much it (well other than being a speculator and shorting musicUSDs at their own eXchange)
The other way to make money in this system are the following:
      – You lend money to a promising musician, he promises to give you something back (or not) if he is a success. Way to enforce such promises are something that the ‘founders’ will have to think of… but that is for later.
     -The 3rd way the system makes money is buy selling music- on $1 dollar sales here are the proposed ratios:
95% for the musician;
4% for the ‘founders’ ???? (as they have expenses for bandwidth, etc.)
1% transaction fees…



But at least bitMusic will have in house exchange, rivaling the complexity of BTSX. Do not ask me why - the answer of course is -Because they can!

Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

jaran

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Re: Market Report
« Reply #103 on: September 09, 2014, 06:09:19 am »
Quote
But at least bitMusic will have in house exchange, rivaling the complexity of BTSX. Do not ask me why - the answer of course is -Because they can!

Ya i dont get the reason for a whole new exchange either.  I always thought the whole point of all of this was the DAC would be on the bitsharex exchange.  Thus bitsharex holders also benefit because people need bitsharex to buy notes or whatever the DAC issues.  I'm confused...

Offline santaclause102

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Re: Market Report
« Reply #104 on: September 09, 2014, 07:37:29 am »
I promised to share my thoughts on the market when I have one. Well today I do.

The topic is:
 
'BitShares Music'
Short Version:

Sell, sell, sell... whenever you get your hands on any bishashares Music shares (called Notes) sell. At whatever price the poor buyer is offering; do not give him a chance to think twice!

Compared to bitMusic Notes, LTBcoin is a stroke of genius!




Long  Version:

-Totally screwed or laughable IPO, depending on your point of view.

Let’s not talk about PTS/AGS holders – getting in 30 % of a worthless product is not much better than getting just 10%, I know getting 10% is insulting nevertheless.
The IPO is designed to follow all well-known path of ‘crypto space’ stupidity –Ethereum style, or ‘known number unknown quantity’ style IPO. In short you pay $5 for X number of shares, but you are totally unaware how many shares will be sold. With every passing day the new buyer get less number of shares per $5 but at least know how many other crazies have bought before them.  The total number of crazies still remains unknown, as there may be many more coming after them.
If this is not enough, the wise DAC creators/founders not just keep the proceeds of the ipo, they also reward themselves with free shares (about 30% of the total DAC’s shares, never the less!)



-Suspicious business model and incentive structure.

      -Well the IPO was the fun part, there the creators of this DAC just rob you in bright daylight and that is in a way honorable of them.
While they thought hard for their 30-35% free notes, in the business model we see that those Notes are not worth much. They entitle you to transactions fees… and that is pretty much it (well other than being a speculator and shorting musicUSDs at their own eXchange)
The other way to make money in this system are the following:
      – You lend money to a promising musician, he promises to give you something back (or not) if he is a success. Way to enforce such promises are something that the ‘founders’ will have to think of… but that is for later.
     -The 3rd way the system makes money is buy selling music- on $1 dollar sales here are the proposed ratios:
95% for the musician;
4% for the ‘founders’ ???? (as they have expenses for bandwidth, etc.)
1% transaction fees…



But at least bitMusic will have in house exchange, rivaling the complexity of BTSX. Do not ask me why - the answer of course is -Because they can!
Agree on the IPO model. It has the downside of not knowing what you will get / at which market cap you buy in. Instead an ASG style fundraiser or normal bank style IPOs would make sense. For the latter you would have to valuate the company / nodes beforehand.

As for the 10%. That could have been more I agree. But no reason to act against the DAC or refuse it! Be grateful for what you get! No one has to honor anything. Its all a free market. If you think 10% is too low create or help create a competitor that honors more. All voluntary.

As for why nodes should be worth s.t.:
- Two types of tx fees: Normal transaction processing fees and a higher fee for buying music.
- You need bitUSD backed by nodes to buy music (whether creating an own bitUSD market on that chain is advisable I dont know).
I dont think that is that bad.

If you criticize someone you should be able to say how you would make it better. What would be your business / monetization model?

« Last Edit: September 09, 2014, 07:40:51 am by delulo »