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Messages - bitcrab

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1306
General Discussion / Re: review for price feeding
« on: November 29, 2017, 01:33:08 am »
I think magicwallet can be one reliable source for BTS/CNY price, here an CNY/bitCNY price can be calculated out based on the P2P trading data, combined with the bitCNY/BTS price in DEX, a reliable price can be get.

You shouldn't do that. The CNY/bitCNY price and the bitCNY/BTS price are both influenced by the feed price (and settlement offset). Using these prices to define the feed price creates a feedback loop, which is inherently unstable.

at least it can be one source, I haven't said we need to totally rely on this source.

1307
General Discussion / Re: [ANN] Bitshares gateway GDEX is launching
« on: November 28, 2017, 07:35:10 am »
I can also do a pull request to have your access node added (wss://ws.gdex.io) to bitshares-ui if you are ok with it?

please don't, this node is planned for GDEX use only to ensure quick processing without jam, later we will build some other nodes for public use.

1308
General Discussion / Re: review for price feeding
« on: November 28, 2017, 07:15:21 am »
force settlement make sense under current infrastructure, it is the way to claim the value of smartcoins.

however, we need a reasonable force settlement offset, we also need the fed price trace the market price well enough.

if the offset is too low, shorters will be in high risk and will be discouraged to generate smartcoins, supply will be in shortage.

if the offset is too high, smartcoins will be devalued and off-peg.

we need a balance here.

AFAIK, currently BTS price in BTC is firstly got, and then converted to price in USD, and then in CNY.

deviation can happen in each step.

USDT are not equal to USD, this always contribute to the deviation of price.

CNY is not a free convertible currency, the officially published USD/CNY rate are used here but seldom traders can convert CNY to USD in the rate, this is another important factor for the deviation of price, maybe the bitUSD/bitCNY price in DEX is better than the official rate.

all this lead to a result that in DEX the BTS price in bitCNY is 3-5% higher than the settlement price for long time, and lead to endless settle orders.
while endless settle orders appear, it is telling that the system is ill.

to raise the offset to 5% is an urgent action to cure the illness, I don't think it is a permanent solution, we can find from magic wallet that now 1bitCNY = 0.98-0.99CNY, a little off-peg already happen.

so in long term vision the offset should be reduced, maybe not return to 1%, but at least it need to be reduced to about 3%.

surely the precondition is that the price feeding can reflect the market price exactly enough.

I think magicwallet can be one reliable source for BTS/CNY price, here an CNY/bitCNY price can be calculated out based on the P2P trading data, combined with the bitCNY/BTS price in DEX, a reliable price can be get.

this is a chance for magicwallet to contribute to the ecosystem. :)

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在现有框架下,必须承认强清是有意义的,强清是用来实现智能货币对抵押物索取权的。
强清补偿需要足够合理,喂价需要对BTS的市场价格跟踪得足够好。

如果补偿过低,则shorter承担的风险过大,智能货币将会缺乏供应动力。
如果补偿过高,则智能货币对抵押物索取权得不到足够保证,智能货币会贬值,会脱锚。

这里需要平衡。

当前喂价的获得,如果我理解正确的话,应该是先获得BTC价格,转换为USD价格,再转换为CNY价格。

每个环节都可能会带来失真。

转换为USD价格时,因为获得的价格中许多并不是真正的美元价格,而是USDT价格,而USDT价格并不是真正的美元价格,最近这些天,USDT大约相当于98折的USD.

再转换成CNY价格时就又增添了一个因素,那就是CNY/USD并不是自由兑换的,估计许多脚本用的是官方价格,但手持CNY价格的人是无法用官方价格买到美元的,这又是一个失真因素。

也许就是这一切因素导致内盘BTS的CNY价格长期比喂价高5%,催生了持续不断的强清。

持续不断的强清说明系统病了,需要治理。

把强清补偿提高到5%是一种应急措施,是有副作用的,现在根据鼓鼓钱包里反应出的市场情况,bitCNY大约相当于打了99折到98折的人民币,已经有点脱锚了。

所以长期看强清补偿还是应该调低的,未必需要调回到1%,但至少可以调到3%以观后效。

但是,在调低前,需要优化喂价,使其对市场跟踪得足够好。

其实采用鼓鼓钱包承兑数据+内盘BTS/bitCNY市场价格会得到足够可靠的价格信息,只要鼓鼓钱包功能正常,那么CNY和bitCNY的交易通道就足够流畅,鼓鼓钱包这里就可以统计得到足够准确的市场数据。比以往的算法要有效。



1309
General Discussion / [ANN] Bitshares gateway GDEX is launching
« on: November 27, 2017, 12:38:22 pm »


After long time preparing, now GDEX is launching.

at first GDEX only list BTC, in recent future we will list ETH, NEO, QTUM, BCH, IOTA…etc.

Now users can only access GDEX through gdex.io, hope soon it can be integrated in the reference wallet.

GDEX is operated by OBSIDIAN TECHNOLOGY CO. PTE. LTD.  a company incorporated under the laws of Singapore Republic, the support team work in the office in Shanghai, China. 

GDEX focus on introducing high liquidities of main cryptocurrencies into DEX, we will pay much effort on market making, our goal is to make everyone in the world can trade in DEX with same or even better user experience than the best central exchange.

come on and enjoy!

1310
General Discussion / review for price feeding
« on: November 18, 2017, 03:11:52 pm »
hi, @ElMato @wackou @verbaltech2 could you please check your price feeding and update the script? your feeding price is far below the reasonable figure.

the price from poloniex need to be removed.






1311
The importance of force settlement is over rated. For an adopted market you could likely change it to 50% offset or remove it entirely and it would have no effect.

Force settlement is not a tool for speculators.  It is not a tool for balancing or arbitrage.  It is a safety, training wheels mechanism for if the market disappears, SmartAsset holders are assured of some value.  Has the market disappeared?  Is there suddenly a void on one side of the market and an overwhelming driving force on the other?  Is everyone trying to exit the market at once?  Is bitCNY in danger of collapse?  No?  ok, then why are we using force settlement?  A market disruption and volatile pricing for BTS and BTC has made accurate objective feeding difficult/impossible.  And instead of letting the markets and pricing to rebalance through normal trade we've given a new path straight through our core support.

A hard line in the sand so close to the feed during times of high volatility and market disruption drives speculators to attack the backbone supply for the market (borrowers) instead of an honest trade with other speculators in a normal market.

The price should be given some breathing room around the feed.  Where normal market swings will be picked up from 1 speculator to the other.  Not allowing speculators and other normal trading to pick up the slack first to balance and correct, where instead there is a governing fail-safe emergency mechanism for a guaranteed price, drives instead a drain on the core of the market (borrowers)

While I see settlement as useful in the formation of a new market, at some point it becomes destructive and an unnecessary burden for the creators / borrowers.  This balance should be managed and assessed.  Is bCNY able to stand on it's own?  Can we allow it 5% around the feed without it falling over?

HELLO THERE! BitCNY is falling below the feed because it is OVER SUPPLIED. This is very simple: there are more sellers than buyers. Forced settlement is the ONLY thing which keeps it from falling further. You want it to fall 50% below? Great, go ahead and set 50% offset and keep shorting, but let me know in advance when this happen such that I have time to get rid of this shit asset.

ok, let's firstly focus on whether the bitCNY is over supplied.

below is snapshot from magicwallet, we can see that currently one need to pay at least 1.028CNY to get 1bitCNY,  it is clearly that bitCNY is in shortage, serious shortage.


anyway if you do not like bitCNY even if it worth more than 1CNY, just sell it immediatelly, it is very possible that the offset will increase 3 days later.

1312
If I was short on bitCNY, i would make sure there are no bitCNY sell orders below the peg - and if there were, I would buy them up to either increase my collateral ratio or reduce my debt.

according to your logic, now I should sell BTS in DEX to lower the price as feeded?

the problem is:
1. after I doing this, I have no way to buy BTS back at the feeded price, I am at risk if the BTS price goes up.
2. as a big shorter it's not easy to avoid being settlement by reducing debt,  even I avoid, some other shorters will be settled, as committee we need to find a solution to make sure any shorters won't be settled unfairly!

What are you talking about? You are settled at a fair face value. Besides, you can take advantage of low bitCNY price and close your position at discount value before you are forced settled. When bitCNY price goes up again, just short it again, it takes a couple of clicks. Where is unfairness?

if the feed price is correct, then there's no unfairness.
but now there's no way to buy BTS price at the feed price, otherwise the settlers will buy at feed price, not feed price +1%, understand?

listen, there is no low or high bitCNY price, bitCNY price are stable, there's only high or low BTS price,  if I want to close my position, I need to sell 60M BTS, may be you want that, but I don't think  the ecosystem like this.

I am considering how to make the ecosystem grow by optimizing the rules but what are you thinking? you guys can only tell others "stay calm, no problem, no need to change"

1313
If I was short on bitCNY, i would make sure there are no bitCNY sell orders below the peg - and if there were, I would buy them up to either increase my collateral ratio or reduce my debt.

according to your logic, now I should sell BTS in DEX to lower the price as feeded?

the problem is:
1. after I doing this, I have no way to buy BTS back at the feeded price, I am at risk if the BTS price goes up.
2. as a big shorter it's not easy to avoid being settlement by reducing debt,  even I avoid, some other shorters will be settled, as committee we need to find a solution to make sure any shorters won't be settled unfairly!

1314
committee proposal created, hope it can get enough support.
review will begin 3 days later, actually this is a little urgent so a comparatively short period is set, however, we still have enough time to reminder the potential settlers.

https://cryptofresh.com/p/1.10.5244

1315
Witnesses should be combining BTS prices from different exchanges giving more weight to those with big volume to create an accurate feed price. The forced settlement is the only thing that makes the peg certain if such major goal posts get moved then our stablecoins aren't safe.

no, the core design for pegging is margin call, not settlement, settlement can help pegging when there is no developed ecosystem, but it also provide opportunity   to hurt the ecosystem.

and the plan does not remove the settlement, it just increase the offset, we can watch how bitCNY behaves after this change, if some unexpected event happen, for example, bitCNY price drop to 0.95CNY, committee surely have chance to change the offset back.

1316
We've had a lengthy discussion on the subject before, and back then we were arguing about 1%, not 5.

I think the settlement offset is a blatant violation of the settlement guarantee. Raising the offset means ripping off the holders of bitCNY, which will further serve to destroy the credibility of bitAssets as a concept.

It is especially unfair to those who have already requested forced settlement, because they cannot undo their settlement requests. They will simply receive another 4% less than what they were supposed to receive.

Once again the largest shorters of bitCNY are abusing their power to scam the users of our DEX.

surely the apply of this plan need some time, and before that we'll announce this change to public, it has no effect on the already placed settle orders, and the potential settlers will be noticed about this.

for the smartcoin like bitRUBLE, its ecosystem is undeveloped yet, settlement may play an important role for claiming values of smartcoins, but for bitCNY which has a mature ecosystem, settlement is not needed, and the key point is to increase supply.

I have discussed with aex and xbrick people, they do not worry the credibility of bitCNY, but they worry a lot on the supply of bitCNY, they doubt it cannot fulfill the market demand.

I am a big shorter, how can I scam the DEX users? please let me know. shorters are always under the risk of margin call, small shorters can easily increase the collateral ratio to avoid such risk, but it is always difficult for big shorters to do that, big shorters need to be more careful.


1317
General Discussion / plan to raise the bitCNY force settlement offset to 5%
« on: November 13, 2017, 04:41:42 pm »
firstly let's review what happened in the passed several days:

poloniex, the exchange with highest BTS trading volume,  has some issue and stopped processing BTS withdrawl.

BTC/BCH war lead to big fluctuation of BTC price and also the blockchain traffic jam.

thanks to China goverment, now people from China feel trouble to buy cryptocurrencies by CNY.

all these lead to a big gap between the BTS price in bitCNY and the settlement price, and this lead to endless settle orders, speculators come and exploit shorters.

Settlements purpose is to provide a last resort guarenteed exit.  In a healthy market it is not needed. 

settlers need to pay for this convenience while forcing this inconvenience on to the shorters. this is the settlement compensation ratio, and now it is set to 1% for almost all the smartcoins.

now bitCNY ecosystem has developed to an extent, which makes settlement of little sense, there's no scenario that bitCNY holders need to submit settlement to claim the value of bitCNY. on the other side, when sometimes the market is in inefficient or disrupt status, the settlement provide the opportunity for speculators to exploit the shorters and also hurt the ecosystem. this is not we want from settlement.

bitCNY is in shortage, these 2 days because of the settlement exploit it is in more serious shortage, however, now exchanges such as aex.com and xbricks.io are beginning to open bitCNY market, we can expect that the demand for bitCNY will rise rapidly to above 1 billion level. to meet this demand we definitely need to prevent the shorters from being hurt unfairly and avoid the happening of settlement exploition.

surely price feeding is a key factor  and should be improved, but in such a fragile market, feed disparity is bound to happen. we cannot expect the price feeding always be adapted in time to fit the latest market status.

what I suggest to solve this problem is to raise the settlement compensation offset to 5%, only for bitCNY, leave other smartcoins unchanged.

as now settlement contribute little to a healthy bitCNY economy, raise the offset to 5% do not hurt the peg of bitCNY and will encourage shorters to provide more bitCNY to meet the demand.

I plan to create such a committee proposal soon as the settlement exploition is still on going and no one knows when it can come to an end.

any ideas, please discuss here.










 

1318
now there are endless bitCNY orders waiting to get cheaper BTS from shorters:



why this can happen?

the traffic jam of BTC blockchain and the BTC price fluctuation are the factors that lead to this.

and also there are something abnormal in exchanges, for example, poloniex has stopped processing BTS withdrawl for 5 days.



zb.com does not begin process USDT withdrawl yet.

on the other side, because of magicwallet, people can get bitCNY much more easily than before...

all this lead to the result that the settle price in bitCNY has been 3-5% lower than DEX price for several days. and lead endless settle orders.

this is unfair, and will hurt shorters and also the whole BTS economy, we need to take actions to stop this.

my suggestion:

while witness get price from exchnges, check the prices first, if one BTS price from some central exchanges is 3% lower than the price in DEX, just ignore this price.

this can only apply to bitCNY and is just to handle current abnormal conditions.

if any other better ways, please share, anyway we need to protect the endless settlement from happening. thanks!
 

1319
Quote
I watched what happened while binance promoting YOYO, I believe we should pay for similar things.

yeah, short term. or do you really think they gained investors that way? I would argue that this is just a very short term goal to temporary rise the price. You get nothing out of it for throwing money at daytraders, after the event they will dump and move on.

yes, for example, binance has more than 400k users, investors are there, what we need to do is to draw attention from them.
BTS is undervalued for long time, we need marketing campaign.
only after that we can have enough supply of smartcoins  and make more adoption.
comparing to what these campaigns can bring to us, 1.8M BTS is not so expensive, no need to argue too much and miss the chance.

1320
I  have discussed a lot with zicen on this plan, now I completely support it.

DEX and central exchanges are not enemies, they can be are partners, they can coexist and cooperate, when BTS is still on growing, it need to rely on central exchanges to bring users and moneys. On the other side, central exchanges, like aex.com, test.xbrick.io began adopting bitCNY, bitUSD etc as base currency.

DEX and central exchanges can help each other, our competitors are other decentralized exchanges, not central exchanges. The inventor of car need not to reject horses when he really need them.

1.8m BTS is a lot, but comparing to what the plan can bring us, this is not much, 2 days ago I won’t say this, but after I watched what happened while binance promoting YOYO, I believe we should pay for similar things.

we have contacted Lbank.info, binance and aex.com,  with Lbank.info we have reached an agreement - at 11th, Nov - the double 11 festival in China they will organize campaigns to promote BTS, with totally 2M BTS and 15 iPhone X as rewards, 0.4M BTS are from us, the left are from themselves.

You can check http://www.lbank.info/activities to for details, regretly there are only Chinese version.

the negotiation with binance and aex.com also goes well, in recent future the detail of the campaigns will be published.

I will pre pay the needed BTS before the worker proposal fund is available.

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