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Messages - bitcrab

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1
中文(Chinese) / Re: 重启公市基金?
« on: Today at 09:39:18 am »
投票的WP已经创建,请投票:

1.14.166 Poll - Restart Open Market Operation
1.14.167 Poll - Do Not Restart Open Market Operation

2
Stakeholder Proposals / [Poll]Restart Open Market Operation
« on: Today at 08:30:37 am »
In the past 10 months, open market operation fund lost much in the big bear market. A simple summary can be found here: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=27790.0

However, I believe that the market fee income should be used in supporting the smartcoin ecosystem. What we learned in the past 10 months will help us to optimize the policy in the future.

So I now suggest to restart the Open Market Operation with updated rules:

1.Open Market Operation Fund will not get BTS through worker proposal, it will only get the market fee of smartcoins as fund source.
2.Smartcoin borrowing will not be allowed.
3.BTS buying orders can be placed only when there is margin called orders stayed.
4.BTS selling orders can be placed only when the smartcoin has at least 0.5% discount.

the operation will still cover bitCNY and bitUSD, as bitUSD is in global settlement status, operation on bitUSD will start after bitUSD revive.

bitCNY operation account: committee-cnytrader
bitUSD operation account: committee-usdoperator

As ebit and witness.still are voted out of committee, the active key of committee-cnytrader will be changed to a 2/3 multisig of bitcrab, jademont and abit.

2 poll worker proposals have been created for this plan:

1.14.166 Poll - Restart Open Market Operation
1.14.167 Poll - Do Not Restart Open Market Operation

please vote according to your opinion.


3
General Discussion / Re: Review of OMO
« on: February 15, 2019, 06:02:30 am »
I am with CM on this one. Losses are in the $100,000+ range. There needs to be significant improvements before I would vote for a second OMO.

Of the two options you described, Plan A is far more acceptable than Plan B.

the fund lost so much because the big bear comes and the debt position was margin called.
in Plan A, there will be no borrowing and margin call will be avoided.

4
General Discussion / Re: Review of OMO
« on: February 14, 2019, 08:34:49 am »
I am considering to restart the OMO fund operation.

I believe that the market fee income should be used in supporting the smartcoin ecosystem. we learned lessons in the past 10 months, so I think we need to update some essential setting of the fund.

first, it will not get BTS through worker proposal, it will only get the market fee of smartcoins for operation.

here are 2 policies for the operation of the updated OMO fund.

Plan A:
1.BTS buying orders can be placed only when there is margin called orders stayed.
2.BTS selling orders can be placed only when the smartcoin has at least 0.5% discount.
3.smartcoin borrowing is not allowed.

Plan B:
1.BTS buying orders can be placed only when there is margin called orders stayed.
2.BTS selling orders can be placed only when the smartcoin has at least 0.5% discount.
3.smartcoin borrowing is allowed, but the margin call price of the debt position should always be lower than the global settlement price, anytime the margin called price is above global settlement price, all the available liquidity should be used to reduce the margin called price.

Plan A is conservative, it just buy and sell BTS, do not borrow.
Plan B is a little audacious.

maybe we can begin with Plan A, Plan B is for subsequent discussion.

5
General Discussion / Review of OMO
« on: February 13, 2019, 07:36:14 am »
the open market operation fund relevant threads are here:

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=26107.0
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=26072.0

below is a simple table that shows the balance change of the 2 OMO accounts.







in the past 10 months, committee-cnytrader lost 6130332 bitCNY and 26206002 BTS.

committee-usdoperator lost 177300 bitUSD and 10258313 BTS.

from 2018/3/20 to 2018/8/8, committee-cnytrader bought 10M-25M BTS, at price 0.79 - 2.2 bitCNY.

from 2018/8/14 to 2019/1/19, committee-cnytrader selled 10M-20M BTS in margin call, at price 0.61 - 0.24 bitCNY.

from 2018/3/29 to 2018/10/30, committee-usdoperator bought about 15M BTS, at price 0.095 - 0.36 bitUSD.

from 2018/10/19 to 2019/10/21, committee-usdoperator selled about 12M BTS in margin call at price 0.0615 to 0.0509 bitUSD

at 2018/10/25 bitUSD was global settled, 3M BTS from committee-usdoperator was global settled at 0.0511bitUSD.

the data is rough as now it is not convenient to process the transaction data, hope https://bitsharescan.com can add the data export feature.

6
gdex-witness already implemented BSIP58 on bitCNY.

7
possible to add the export feature that one can user can export the transaction history to various format of file like EXCEL, txt, whatever?

8
中文(Chinese) / Re: 重启公市基金?
« on: February 12, 2019, 06:34:38 am »
别再搞公市基金 之前的公市基金已经向市场释放了几千万的流通量了,结果是价格进一步下跌。
为什么不把手续费分给会员呢?分给会员后让很多人升级会员账号 ,吸引新人进来多好,

看清楚再说,这次不再用项目预算资金,只有手续费。
就算一年100万bitCNY手续费,分下去,也就相当于一年手里有20万BTS的话能分10块bitCNY,不觉得有啥意思。

9
中文(Chinese) / Re: 重启公市基金?
« on: February 12, 2019, 04:08:54 am »
个人感觉可以参考借鉴一下: BITMEX的永续合约中的很多设计思路,爆仓吃单方式,保险基金等等

对于公市基金应该也有一些好的思路可以扩展。

不建议基金再进行抵押的原因在于,一旦抵押上了规模,很容易尾大不调,调整抵押率需要大量的bitcny进行填补,而收取的bitcny手续费很难在短时间内填补这个空缺。

当然基金累积过多的bitcny与bts也有缺陷,过多的bts到时候是否可以作为工人工资的补充或者作为110%债仓的系统后备抵押,防止过多资不抵债的债仓出现?

如果非要抵押的话,建议只能用其中1/3的bts进行抵押操作,防止市场极端情况......

而基金吃单的方式是否可以设计为专吃接近于110%债仓的自动吃单方式?

bts抵押最大的问题在于做空太容易,顺势做空可以一直连环爆炸做下去,而维系锚定资产的供应量却需要大量铁头抵押的存在,而铁头抵押在市场下行阶段很难阻挡趋势………

对于MSSR,降到102%或者101%应该对于费率降低有很大的积极作用。

对于MCR,暂时不置可否。

首先关于基金是否要抵押的问题。

我觉得还是需要抵押的。而且按照新规则也是相对安全的。

不断的bitCNY手续费收入流入基金,当市场相对正常,爆仓单随爆随吃的时候,这些bitCNY就存在那里,不会作购买BTS的操作,不断的bitCNY积累在不断降低仓位的风险敞口。

只有当有爆仓单积压的时候,才有机会回购。

加上爆仓价不得高于黑天鹅价的要求,应该足够安全了吧?

最坏的情况下爆几下仓也不可怕,很可能现在0.25买进的,几个月后爆仓0.3卖掉的。

如果这样的策略都不可行,那等于告诉大家,千万别抵押。

其实最大的问题是资金量太小,很难起到明显作用。

但也不妨作为一种实验,看看这样保守的策略到底要面临多大风险。同时确保理事会账户收到的bitCNY手续费依然用于支撑系统。

只去吃110%左右的爆仓单是另外一种策略 - 如果我猜测得没错,alt等就是这种操作策略,平时各种方式积累bitCNY,到黑天鹅边缘的时候吃爆仓单。

坦率讲,从长期来看,这样的策略可能盈利的可能性更大,但是,对整个系统的支撑程度会小一些。

打个不恰当的比方,这种策略好比丰年囤积粮食,等到荒年饿死人的时候高价售粮。

公市基金也是正常年景囤积粮食,但作为公共基金,不应该等到饿死人的时候再去出售,当粮价高涨,已经影响市场稳定的情况下就该去出售。

所以有积压的爆仓单出现就可以回购。

10
连我 甘少 都对BTS失望了,可想而知社区的人都是被自己害挂的,再者就是BTS团队的不努力造成的。

排名不断的下跌,其它币不断的超上去,归根到底就是还没有取消黑天鹅的原因,本来这是一个很快解决的事情,结果拖啊拖,根本就不作为。拖到死了为止都不改成。

我提过的这么多方案却根本就没有团队去理,我失望了,我转战场了,我去混曾经最垃圾的LTC去了。

失望归失望,但黑天鹅已经等于实质上取消了啊。

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=27753.msg327413#msg327413

bitCNY的黑天鹅保护方案已经投票通过,而且已经实施了啊。bitUSD等复活以后也会进行投票实施黑天鹅保护。

11
just for information.
up to now the poll voting result:

                           poll worker proposal                                                   votes
1.14.160: Poll-BSIP58-Global Settlement Protection on bitCNY                  345M

1.14.161: Poll-BSIP58-No Global Settlement Protection on bitCNY              0

the stakeholders approved to implement BSIP58 on bitCNY.

every witness, please check and confirm the implementation of BSIP58 on bitCNY.

12
中文(Chinese) / Re: 重启公市基金?
« on: February 11, 2019, 03:43:03 pm »
2.你的意思6月份分叉后mcr不通过见证人喂了?有程序自动执行?

通过见证人喂,目前有一个bug导致MCR事实上不能改动,6月硬分叉会修好这个bug。

13
中文(Chinese) / Re: 重启公市基金?
« on: February 11, 2019, 10:35:09 am »
可能需要细节处理,比如爆仓单的抵押率到多少可以吃,比如到120%?

千分之五的折扣太低了,很大概率会形成变相的爆仓单效应。

不太建议基金做抵押,很大概率会成为一个坑。

有爆仓单挂着就可以下单,挂买单而已,不一定是直接吃爆仓单。

折扣大于千五才可以卖,不是必须卖,也不是砸盘。

基金账户积累了BTS,在bitCNY最短缺的时候却只是守着不去主动创造bitCNY,真的好吗?

14
中文(Chinese) / Re: 重启公市基金?
« on: February 11, 2019, 06:04:28 am »
建议先复活BitUSD吧!不然黑天鹅价0.0511USD/BTS就是强大的上升阻力!

复活3部曲:
1. Collected market fee convert from BitUSD to BTS via Settle in UI.
2. Then BTS can used to bids for the collateral in the settlement fund.
3. Once BitUSD revived, market fee used to decrease debt position until zero.

价格0.039的时候谈阻力是0.0511为时尚早。
等价格到了,自然会有大量的bitUSD冒出来清算。
现在这点market fee 收入,对于1亿BTS的settle pool根本是杯水车薪。


15
中文(Chinese) / Re: 重启公市基金?
« on: February 11, 2019, 04:01:27 am »
建议向CTS学习,在代码里写死喂价不能低于买单价吧。

BSIP42带来了很多教训,BTS不可能再次踏入同一个坑。

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