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Messages - bitcrab

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1
中文(Chinese) / Re: BTS抵押做空爆仓获利分析
« on: May 02, 2018, 05:22:18 am »

Quote
不过系统出现大量的高杠杆债仓的确不是什么好事情,现阶段也许可以考虑利用强制清算来对付一下,也许是时候把bitCNY的强清补偿设回原值了。

如果强清补偿能够和抵押率挂钩,比如说强清补偿率按(ratio-MCR)*0.04 计算,那就更好了。
高杠杆抵押,本来目的就是想一旦趋势转折就早爆,这是价格大幅波动时的最好策略;这种交易者都不在乎被爆,所以更不会在乎强清,我觉得强清参数怎么设在这里都没用。

相应来说,价格小幅波动时这个策略就不好。所以,对付这种,最好的办法是震荡洗盘,比如,喂价稍微砸一点,爆掉他,然后价格拉回来。

同时加大爆仓惩罚比例,比如10%改成20%,配合震荡洗盘效果会不错。但这样对先爆的仓没什么威慑力,还很可能会影响买盘深度。

不一样的,爆仓是在价格下行时发生,而强清任何时间都可能发生。

如果价格一直向上,高杠杆的积累会给系统带来很大风险,爆仓又没有条件发生,而强清却会随时清除最低抵押率的债仓。

上升阶段没谁希望自己的债仓还没等价格上去就过早被清除。

震荡洗盘是操作层面的东西,不是规则制定层面的东西,公开市场操作也不可能去做这样的操作。

2
as BTS price now grow up to above 2CNY, now it's time to adjust the rule to determine minimum collateral ratio in open market operation fund account.

we need the minimum ratio to increase with feed price, with a nonlinear decreasing rate。

I found below formula is likely a suitable choice, in the next price stage it will be used to determine the minimum collateral rate.



please advise if you have any ideas on this.

3
中文(Chinese) / Re: BTS抵押做空爆仓获利分析
« on: May 01, 2018, 02:25:54 pm »
这本来就是一种博弈,你是赌趋势向下了早点卖出还是赌趋势向下但很快会反弹所以保持仓位那都是你的自由。赌每个方向都可能受损或获利。

站在系统角度,不需要去干涉交易者决策的自由,尽力优化规则,最小化爆仓产生的卖单就好。可以预见规则优化后,配合以开放市场操作,会极大降低连环爆仓发生的概率。

不过系统出现大量的高杠杆债仓的确不是什么好事情,现阶段也许可以考虑利用强制清算来对付一下,也许是时候把bitCNY的强清补偿设回原值了。

如果强清补偿能够和抵押率挂钩,比如说强清补偿率按(ratio-MCR)*0.04 计算,那就更好了。

或者是否可以这样?把爆仓规则设成“凡是爆仓单成交,一律按爆仓单价格”,这样可以保证对爆仓的惩罚。

4
中文(Chinese) / Re: BTS抵押做空爆仓获利分析
« on: May 01, 2018, 08:07:16 am »
现在的爆仓机制有缺陷,但谈不上什么畸形。

BSIP30-38的一系列改动就在修复其中不合理的地方,包括“爆仓单按即时抵押率顺序成交”,“爆仓单可调高抵押率”,“允许只卖出部分抵押物”等等,这里面的一个核心思路是减少不必要的爆仓,说修改了更畸形那是瞎扯淡。

如果有人能准确判断趋势,那加杠杆操作挣钱是他的权利。而且,那种贴着1.75抵押的玩法同样有风险。并且,这种玩法并不是系统性风险的主要来源。系统性风险的主要来源依然是当大势由牛转熊时现在的爆仓规则太简单粗暴了。

靠个人的力量与大势作对当然是很可能死无葬身之地的,但是别忘了,公开市场操作是有源源不断的资金来源的。

而且,公开市场操作并不总是买BTS,需要的时候也会卖。

当前的BTS价格对BTC价格还有很大的关联,公开市场操作的目的之一是逐步减少这种关联,直到BTS价格基本与BTC价格无关。

谁要觉得可以蹂躏内盘就放马过来吧,前段时间那么糟糕的时候也没有黑天鹅,现在一系列的改进之后还怕了你了?



5
中文(Chinese) / Re: BTS抵押做空爆仓获利分析
« on: April 28, 2018, 09:13:55 am »
到了理想出货价位,不断卖不断还借款就可以啊,为啥非要争取爆仓降10%价卖呢?跟钱有仇吗?


6
中文(Chinese) / Re: 对<强制清算>的一些看法与改进建议
« on: April 16, 2018, 02:31:26 pm »
这么说吧,如果有人抵押倍数高,有人抵押倍数低,那么,那些抵押高的根本不会被清到,设置补偿比例多少都不影响。

所以,补偿比例,影响的实际上还是只有抵押率最低的那些单子。

那么,设置阶梯补偿有多少意义?不是说技术上不能做,而是做的必要性有多大。

理事会完全可以根据市场行情来调参数。抵押过热了,降补偿;抵押不够了,增加补偿。很灵活的。个人建议是先把这个参数用好,不够再加,前提是有充分理由。如果设置多个参数,最终还是要理事会来调;如果设置成固定参数,不可调,那如果有问题需要硬分叉升级解决,更麻烦。


另外,那些抵押倍数低的,加高杠杆的,本来就是为了利益最大化,同时也有风险。人人都想低买高卖,只是各人操作策略不同。这是自由市场,只要按照规则玩,就是合理的。

同意 btspad 的观点,bts/cny市场价就是对行情和各个参数的最明显反应,包括爆仓、强清补偿等等。
作为运营,理事会应该根据行情调节参数,但权衡利弊,可能有时候需要有偏向;这要靠有能力的人来做运营,当然最终还是要看投票。

我不太同意高抵押倍数的抵押单不会被强清的情况,去年10月份期间,高抵押倍数被强清的情况比比皆是,一度导致内盘几乎无人敢于抵押,直到巨蟹将强清补偿参数提议调至5%才有所缓解,而且这段时间长达一个月,理事会对强清补偿参数的调节及反应跟处理时间远远落后于市场反应,直到现在很多人还对调整补偿参数耿耿于怀,而且从强清开始形成到现在的运行结果来看,其起的作用并没有太大,很多时候起的是负作用,甚至有把抵押一清到底的恶果,而理事会在其中并没有起到太大作用,当然喂价机制在里面也起反作用。

采用强清补偿浮动参数,并非固定式的参数,其可以抵消理事会反应慢的问题,更能相当大程度跟进市场反馈,并能有效的保护高抵押倍数的抵押人,再者强清本身的一个目的就是为了抑制低抵押率,让大家保证高抵押率,浮动参数并没有不妥,而现有的由理事会调的固定强清参数在相当程度上是失败的,已经失去其本身存在的意义,很长时间已经失去其调节杠杆的作用,低了就恶意强清,高了就没人强清,根本没有一个合适的参数,哪怕巨蟹以前搞的TCNY其本身3%左右的参数也没有太大效果。

另外,那些抵押倍数低的,加高杠杆的,本来就是为了利益最大化,同时也有风险。人人都想低买高卖,只是各人操作策略不同。这是自由市场,只要按照规则玩,就是合理的。

你可以加高杠杆,但是也要进行制衡,现有的规则是失衡的,并不利于抵押长期良性发展,既然有办法可以尝试,为什么还要固守老一套那?
而且有上下限参数可以调节,也可以加入浮动系数进行调节,并非是定死的数值,当然这些只是一些假设公式,可能有更好的线性公式。
再说,情况再坏,也没有比现在更坏了。

让强清补偿和抵押率相关如果可以实现,肯定是有意义的,IIRC,Maker就采用了这样的设计。
市场情况是在不断变化的,有事最低抵押率可能紧贴1.75,也有可能有时候最低抵押率会在2以上,区别对待是有意义的。
而且,补偿率一视同仁某种程度上也鼓励了低抵押率,因为低抵押率抵押效率高,而且有时候“晚爆不如早爆”的逻辑也很有市场。区别对待,是可以鼓励高抵押率的。

7
锚定不成功主要表现为bitCNY的短缺和过剩,其实感觉跟这些参数关系不大,原因在于bitCNY的市场需求和BTS价格没有直接的决定关系,需求无法有效传导给供应。

BSIP38等改动意义很大,可以很有效地降低出现黑天鹅的风险,但对于调节bitCNY供给来说,个人认为还是要靠公开市场操作这样的方式。

这两个参数虽然是BM拍脑袋得出,但个人觉得还算比较合理,不象当初40BTS的转账费用,以及0清算补偿那样明显不合理。

如果改怎么改呢?比如现在的价格下,把1.75改为1.5?虽然增加了供应量,但也增大了黑天鹅的风险吧?不一定是个好主意。

8
Stakeholder Proposals / [Witness Proposal] gdex-witnness
« on: April 11, 2018, 06:59:31 am »
Hello everyone, We, GDEX team, now announce to apply for a witness - gdex-witness

In the past several months, GDEX has provided gateway service for coins like BTC, ETH, EOS, NEO, QTUM, GXS, BTM, BTO, HPB, ATN, etc. we tried to create more user friendly service for all BTSers, hope you can enjoy our service.

I, bitrab, committee member of Bitshares and Lead of GDEX team, have ran a witness by myself 1 year ago, finally I gave up as I am not professional enough on many technology things. now we have development team that include members focus on development/deployment/QA test/maintenance, I believe they can ensure the witness node to run well.

As a big shorter I understand deeply the importance of exact price feeding, in our view, fed price should reflect the market fact about with what a price people can convert BTS with one kind of fiat. we build our price feeding scripts based on this view.

config detail of relevant nodes:

Witness  main  server:

-  Type:  Dedicated
-  System:  Ubuntu  Server  16.04  LTS
-  Processor:  Intel(R)  Xeon(R)  CPU  E5-2686  v4
-  Cores:  4
-  Ram:  32GB  DDR3
-  Disk:  1TB  SSD
-  Bandwidth:  1  Gbit/s
-  Location:  Japan

Witness  backup  server:

-  Type:  Dedicated
-  System:  Ubuntu  Server  16.04  LTS
-  Processor:  Intel(R)  Xeon(R)  CPU  E5-2686  v4
-  Cores:  4
-  Ram:  16GB  DDR3
-  Disk:  500GB  SSD
-  Bandwidth:  1  Gbit/s
-  Location:  Japan

Witness  price  feed  server  *2:

-  Type:  Dedicated
-  System:  Ubuntu  Server  16.04  LTS
-  Processor:  Intel(R)  Xeon(R)  CPU  E5-2686  v4
-  Cores:  4
-  Ram:  16GB  DDR3
-  Disk:  500GB  SSD
-  Bandwidth:  1  Gbit/s
-  Location:  Japan

GDEX  API  server  *2(wss://ws.gdex.io):

-  Type:  Dedicated
-  System:  Ubuntu  Server  16.04  LTS
-  Processor:  Intel(R)  Xeon(R)  CPU  E5-2686  v4
-  Cores:  4
-  Ram:  32GB  DDR3
-  Disk:  1TB  SSD
-  Bandwidth:  1  Gbit/s
-  Location:  Japan

GDEX  API  server  *2(wss://ws.gdex.top):

-  Type:  Dedicated
-  System:  Ubuntu  Server  16.04  LTS
-  Processor:  Intel(R)  Xeon(R)  CPU  E5-2682  v4
-  Cores:  4
-  Ram:  32GB  DDR3
-  Disk:  1TB  SSD
-  Bandwidth:  200  Mbit/s
-  Location:  China

Contacts:
Website:  https://gdex.io
QQ  group:602573197
Telegram:https://t.me/GDEXer

we also welcome every friends to attend the 2018 Global Graphene Developer Conference: http://blockgeek.io/graphene/index.html

Thanks for support!

9
This seems like a horrible idea. Let the markets evolve naturally. Spend money on quality development or just put it in the bank. We can start to reduce the supply and thus increase the value which will entice more people to the environment and grow bitshares further. Artificially affecting the beautiful decentralized markets seem contra to the ideas of the community.

this.

I too agree with this. Let's not emulate the obviously poor policies of a corrupt organization like the U.S. FED. I realize some who voiced an opinion here don't believe central planing of an economy is bad, but I certainly do. Let's "Let the market decide" was is an appropriate level of liquidity. Anything else I feel is risky and the funds would be better spent on other things we need more.

If this WP is to be implemented, at least  let the WP be written with a short time period, as xeroc and clockwork suggest.

US FED is not perfect, but we can not imagine how US financial system work without such an organization.

totally decentralization is not always beautiful, in many cases decentralization means low efficiency and blindness. on the other hand, committee is voted by stake holders and do the necessary decision and execution. committee members can be voted out at any time. as a committee member I think we need a committee with deep understanding to the ecosystem and execution power to push things ahead. it's the amazing DPoS!
 

10
up to now:

1.02M BTS from worker proposal filled to operator accounts.

in committee-cnytrader:
3.75M BTS in collateral, 840k bitCNY debt position, 191k bitCNY in buy orders. 1.07M bought with average price 0.846CNY/BTS. 2M BTS transferred in from committee-account accumulated BTS.

in committee-usdoperator:
0.42M BTS in collateral, 15k bitUSD debt position, 15k bitUSD in buy orders. 84k BTS bought with average price 0.127USD/BTS.

today is the first day that BTS from reserve pool are claimed and put into the operation plan, it's just a beginning, no significant effect to the market yet, however, while 200k BTS/day keep coming, the accumulated BTS in the operator accounts will show the power step by step.

with the coming hard fork to improve the margin call rule. BTS price will get great power to go up, let's keep on watching.

11
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: Proxy: bitcrab - make the ecosystem grow
« on: April 10, 2018, 07:42:16 am »
now all the active witnesses provides API servers.

in order to make more witnesses active, proxy bitcrab voted more than 40 witnesses, among which some inactive witnesses may do not provide API server.

anyway, if any witness that do not provide API server change to active, proxy bitcrab will unvote the witness.

12
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: Proxy: bitcrab - make the ecosystem grow
« on: April 02, 2018, 02:39:28 am »
blow is a summary of the API servers provided by witnesses, if I missed any, please comment

in.abit:wss://api.bts.mobi/ws   USA

roelandp:  wss://btsws.roelandp.nl/ws (Canada)

bhuz: wss://api.bitshares.bhuz.info/ws

elmato: wss://api.btsxchng.com

xeldal: wss://kc-us-dex.xeldal.com/ws USA

delegate-1.lafona: wss://bts-api.lafona.net/ws

witness.yao:wss://kimziv.com/ws .   Singapore

xn-delegate:  wss://api.btsgo.net/ws Singapore

verbaltech2:  wss://bts.proxyhosts.info/wss
                    wss://nohistory.proxyhosts.info/wss

magicwallet.witness:  wss://bts.open.icowallet.net/ws

fox: wss://api.bts.network (East Coast, USA)

delegate-zhaomu: wss://blockzms.xyz/ws USA

sahkan-bitshares:wss://dexnode.net/ws
                            wss://la.dexnode.net/ws

rnglab: wss://de glab.org Netherlands

openledger-dc:  wss://bitshares.openledger.info/ws (Germany)
                        wss://openledger.hk/ws (Singapore)

crazybit:  wss://crazybit.online China

winex.witness: wss://ws.winex.pro Singapore

delegate.freedom: wss://freedom.bts123.cc:15138 wss://bitshares.bts123.cc:15138 China

witness.hiblockchain: wss://api.bts.ai Beijing China

witness.still:  wss://bitshares.cyberit.io  HongKong

abc123:  wss://bit.btsabc.org/ws HongKong

xman:  ws://newapi.bts.ai Beijing China

blckchnd: wss://api.bts.blckchnd.com Germany
               wss://api-ru.bts.blckchnd.com (Russia, Moscow)
               wss://node.market.rudex.org (Germany)

              + seed node: node.blckchnd.com:4243
              + backup nodes, etc

mr.agsexplorer: wss://bitshares.dacplay.org:8089/ws China

13
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: Proxy: bitcrab - make the ecosystem grow
« on: March 24, 2018, 03:14:49 pm »
great competence happen in EOS node voting. I feel we can also use the witness voting to help BTS ecosystem.

proxy bitcrab would like to adjust the metrics on voting witnesses:

1.provide stable and reliable witness node, low missed block rate.
2.update in time
3.provide good enough price feed.
4.provide API server, the higher performance, the better.
5. help to test code positively

from 5th April, proxy bitcrab will not support witnesses that do not provide API server.





 

15
I don't think this suggestion is "pumping BTS", I think I have expressed clearly that the point is to "adjust smartcoin and BTS supply according to market condition".

You are going to "adjust smartcoin and BTS supply according to market condition". This means that you will try to make actions like Central Banks in most of countries do (they make money emission). And I am sure this actions will be directed to move BTS price up. That's why I say it's "pump". You are going to implement something like "monetary policy" of "Central Bank of Bitshares " and going to decide when buy additional quantity of BTS and when sell it.

But:

1. When Central Banks realize their monetary policy they have calculations and clear vision about the final result. There is no any calculation in your suggestion. You just say "let's try and then we'll see result".

2. Constant changes in the market condition is the nature of every markets, especially in cryptomarkets. This makes it extremely difficult (if at all possible) for any regulations to archive their goals in the longterm.

yes, we may need to introduce economists or CFA to provide more professional analysis and suggestions.

but, I don't think my suggestion is based on nothing, I have suggested to change the force settlement offset compensation and limit to current level, I provide about 20% of current bitCNY and bitUSD supply, I helped magicwallet to build the biggest bitCNY/CNY C2C exchange market, I believe I have enough understanding to the markets.

the so called "Bitshares Central Bank" now has a simple but solid logic base to start, A perfect analysis infrastructure is not ready yet, if you can help to build one, thanks a lot.

trying to do this do not because it easy, but because it is hard.

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