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Messages - bitcrab

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31
中文(Chinese) / BTS投资指南
« on: June 10, 2019, 01:23:39 am »
人能不能拽着自己的头发离开地面?

肯定是不能的,但这只是一个比喻,真正要讨论的问题是:

靠抵押借来的bitCNY能不能撑起BTS的价格?

先来个假设,假设BTS完全在内盘流通,没有上外盘的中心化交易所,而且90%的流通量(当前总流通量2,722,138,126 BTS)都被某大户控制了,该大户将这些BTS全部抵押,按3倍抵押率,如果价格是0.5CNY的话,那么可以借出4.1亿bitCNY。

剩余的BTS流通量2.7亿。按0.5CNY价格计算总价值1.35亿。该大户用手里的4.1亿bitCNY托起0.5CNY的BTS价格应该不是个事儿吧?

当然,这是一个最简化的模型,但它至少说明了,能不能靠bitCNY支撑BTS价格这个问题并不能简单地类比为人能不能拽着自己的头发离开地面的问题。

当然,实际的情况比这复杂得多。

首先筹码是高度分散的,即便是alt这样的大户,控制的BTS也不及总流通量的10%。

目前处于抵押状态的BTS大约不超过总流通量的20%。

还有除了内盘流通以外,BTS还在许多交易所流通,有些交易所还是可以借BTS来做空的。

筹码的分散同时也意味着人心的分散,意味着复杂的多空博弈,并非每个人都关心BTS是否可以成长壮大,多数人更关心的都是自己是否能够获利。挖空心思寻找各种做空机会做空获利的不在少数。

如果拿现在系统中总的bitCNY债务(供应量)和bitUSD债务(供应量)除以总的BTS流通量的市值,可以得出现在系统的债务比率大约是8%,这是一个相当低的数字。

如果再算一下系统中BTS的总抵押量和平均抵押率的话,可以得出结论,那就是BTS总体的抵押量比较少,抵押操作比较集中,发行智能货币的潜力还远没有释放出来。

(未完待续)

32
General Discussion / Re: why not borrowing?
« on: June 10, 2019, 01:12:39 am »
The key point is how to use it after borrowing out?

Buy bts or other token?

Lend it?how?

add leverage to buy more BTS
sell BTS to reduce leverage.
based on the judgement of the market trend.

33
General Discussion / Re: why not borrowing?
« on: June 09, 2019, 02:49:01 pm »
You have a million USD, you should go get a collateralized loan so the bank has more money to use.

Yes, that's the logic for the smartcoin economy to become prosperous.

surely this is not saying "responsibility" or "job", it's saying there is incentive for whales to do so.

and it seems few are interested in doing so, it's somehow disappointing.

I plan to contact more rich persons and try to lobby them to become smartcoin producers.

it's very possible that some time in recent future the chance to buy big amount of BTS under 0.5CNY will disappear, will you feel regret?

34
General Discussion / why not borrowing?
« on: June 09, 2019, 06:39:34 am »
as shown below, some top whales has big amount of BTS and 0 debt.

I just wonder what kind of thoughts lead to this? do they all hold the policy that "buy while cheap and sell while expensive, do not borrow"?

bitUSD is still in big shortage and has a 2%+ premium, it will be good for more stake holder to borrow bitUSD and release(via buying BTS or others) to the market, right?

in the past, it seems the  "buy while cheap and sell while expensive, do not borrow" policy behaved well, "shorts and buy back" policy behaved even better, right?

we have done a lot change to make the rules more friendly to longs, help the system to resist shorting attack.

Target CR, MSSR reduction.

I hope these changes will make "borrow and buy" policy better than the "0 debt" policy.

if when bitUSD is in such a big shortage and high premium but only few users want to borrow bitUSD and release to the market, it's hard to say the changes succeed.






35
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: June 07, 2019, 07:09:29 am »
as I observe, most of the time the median USD price feed is a little higher than reasonable.

currently(UTC 6:52 7th)

kraken: BTC/USD: 7914.5
bittrex: BTC/USD:  7916.4
bittrex: USDT/USD: 1.004
binance: BTS/BTC:  0.00000772
huobi: BTS/USDT:  0.0609
huobi OTC: BTC/CNY: 55850
huobi OTC: USDT/CNY: 7.06

based on above data, BTS/USD price at the moment should be about 0.0611. however at the time the feed price is 0.061522.

yes, it's only less than 1% higher, but I think we need to find something behind this data.

one thing is that the officially published USD/CNY ratio should not be used in feed price calculation, as CNY is still restricted in trading in currency market.

at the moment, the officially published USD/CNY ratio is 6.91, however from above data we can calculate that the ratio should be above 7.05.

36
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: June 07, 2019, 06:06:04 am »

喂价稍微高那么一两个点,影响不是很大,但是低上一两个点,带来的就是内盘的腥风血雨与充值费的大幅飙升,变相阻挡了资金的进入。


这句话非常赞同!

而且适当高一些,能够像适度保持通胀刺激经济的效果
不能这么说。

bitCNY的MSSR已经降到1.01,高两个点的话,就意味着爆仓单卖价比市场价还高,不利于风险消除,增加黑天鹅防护的概率。

当然,喂价低危害更大。首先需要解决的是喂价偏低问题。

37
刷单不是问题,但提币延时是大问题,提币延时意味着与其它市场不通。

总之,对CNY来说,“喂价不能偏离内盘修正价”这一原则是必须坚持的。

38
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: June 02, 2019, 03:50:54 am »
median does not mean correct.

the median of a mess is also a mess.

it's not difficult for one user to find what a value is correct at a moment. only when every witness' feed price is good enough the median can be a dependable value.

39
General Discussion / Re: [Announcement]Change of bitEUR parameters
« on: June 01, 2019, 03:12:19 pm »
Why push something that nobody cares?

not nobody cares, someone cares.

changing parameters cost little, if we change, bitEUR at least has some chance to grow up, to compete with bitCNY and bitUSD, otherwise, it will have no chance to grow up.

why not give bitEUR some chance to grow up with little cost?

40
General Discussion / [Announcement]Change of bitEUR parameters
« on: May 31, 2019, 07:40:19 am »
As the poll worker proposals 1.14.192, 1.14.194, and 1.14.196 have been voted active and got more support than the "do not change" worker proposals, some parameter changes will be made:

Global Settlement Protection will be applied to bitEUR.
MCR of bitEUR will be reduced to 1.6.
MSSR of bitEUR will be reduced to 1.02.

These changes will happen after  UTC 00:00 4th, June, 2019.

Every witness is requested to update the feeding script to apply the 3 change items as mentioned above, please do the job after UTC 00:00 4th, June, 2019 and finish before UTC 00:00 6th, June, 2019.

For more information about the poll for this change, please check https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=28465.0

41
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 31, 2019, 03:25:54 am »
I am so tired in complaining what the current witnesses have done.

I am so tired of your complaints as well.

Why not complain that gdex witness only provides 2 feeds? Why complain when witness doesn't meet >your< standards, when no standards are set? My feed as of right now is 2.1% off for CNY.

With no standard of measurement, you're complaints are meaningless. Besides, I am only 1 out of 21 witnesses, don't you understand how the price is set? 2.1% skews the median how much?

Your complaint is baseless. Better, you target witness that don't do the rest of their duties well, rather than complain about the few who don't always provide the feed the way you want it.

you can complain anyone, but that is not the excuse for you to do bad job.

you can check here to get a reference of the standard. https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=28383.msg330690#msg330690

feed price should not conflict with the modified DEX price, however at the above snapshot, you feed a price which is 5%+ less than the modified DEX price.

@alt I don't think you need to wait more time, please unvote this witness immediatelly, I don 't think he can do a better job based on such an attitude.

42
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 30, 2019, 11:08:33 pm »
USD/BTS price is 0.0658, while CNY/BTS price is 0.464,
means bitCNY/bitUSD rate is 7.05, while the fiat rate of CNY/USD is 6.9

I will unvote those witness who give feed price under 0.0658 if can't get a reasonable explain.

possible for you to pick up the witness job again?
I am so tired in complaining what the current witnesses have done.

43
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 30, 2019, 10:53:57 pm »





Warning:fox,delegate-zhaomu, xeldal, bangzi, zbbtsbp


unvoted: verbaltech2

44
中文(Chinese) / Re: 喂价规则讨论贴
« on: May 28, 2019, 04:00:31 pm »
定价权逐步回归内盘是必须的,BTS自己发行的稳定币,自己深度良好的内盘交易对,不作为数据源,却依赖外盘作为数据源。这是不可接受的。

技术上的问题需要解决,是见证人的义务。

如果觉得见证人付出太多,收入太低,可以提案增加见证人奖励,也不是没干过嘛。


45
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 26, 2019, 03:01:26 pm »
at the time bitCNY still have premium.

Warning: zbbtsbp, verbaltech2, xeldal, please.




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