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Messages - bitcrab

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76
General Discussion / Re: suggestion on bitCNY rules update after BSIP42
« on: December 29, 2018, 04:25:25 pm »
In order to do B we need https://github.com/bitshares/bitshares-core/pull/1324 and hardfork or unintended margin calls will be(or not) triggered.

got it, thanks.

77
General Discussion / Re: suggestion on bitCNY rules update after BSIP42
« on: December 29, 2018, 04:11:03 pm »
now 3&4 have been done.

the committee has changed the force settlement offset of bitCNY from 5% to 2%, this will ensure that the possible discount of bitCNY will be less than 2%.

BSIP41 has been implemented, MSSR of bitCNY has been changed from 1.1 to 1.05.

the community suffer shortage of bitCNY for long time, to realize 1&2 it will also cost much time to reach consensus, create specification and do the implementation.

I am considering to draft 2 BSIPs that need not hard fork, just need witnesses to adapt their feeding script, but can get the purpose of 1&2.

BSIP A: request witnesses to ensure the feed price be higher than the global settlement price, to avoid the global settlement to happen.

BSIP B: change MCR base on worker proposal based poll, a "change MCR to x" WP and a "No change to MCR"poll will be created and wait for voting, witnesses need to change the fed MCR accordingly.

Thoughts?

78
中文(Chinese) / Re: 【讨论】后BSIP42时代bitCNY的规则改进
« on: December 29, 2018, 01:03:31 pm »
cny的供应量的确是束缚bts的绳索了,蟹老板的提议的确能缓解现状,但是,保证提案能通过的票权基本上都在大户手上,建议再好,也有可能通过不了,要知道,不是每一个大佬都为了bts整体利益着想。大家也都看到了,拥有1.4亿票的alt,现在就像个孩子气的任性的暴君,在整个bts改革发展中,有着生杀予夺的权力。而bitcrab现在代理的票数好像不到3000万。希望在发起提案的同时,蟹老板能在社区普遍呼吁下,把社区的票争取一下,让大家设置投票代理为bitcrab,聚沙成塔,社区的小散也能贡献自己一份力量。

首先,alt也许有时候有些想法有点极端,但并不是不讲理,不可说服的人,其次,即便争取不到alt的支持,也不意味着提案没机会通过,事在人为。总之面对当前的困境要积极想办法,而且要尽量把解决方案想得全面,稳妥些。

现在强清补偿已经设为2%,基本上可以确保bitCNY不会出现高于2%的折价,即便MCR有较大幅度的降低也不用太担心会引起bitCNY高折价。

79
中文(Chinese) / Re: 【讨论】后BSIP42时代bitCNY的规则改进
« on: December 29, 2018, 12:50:25 pm »
不YES AND NO, 怎么知道是支持的多还是反对的多?

可以就起草一个BSIP,需要改的时候,单独针对要改的数值发起一次投票就好。

80
中文(Chinese) / Re: 【讨论】后BSIP42时代bitCNY的规则改进
« on: December 29, 2018, 11:35:09 am »
社区苦bitCNY短缺久矣!

在动态MCR一时半会儿难以实施的情况下,参照修改MSSR的流程,通过起草BSIP+投票+见证人执行,降低MCR到1.5或者1.4如何?

当前爆仓单里最低抵押率1.508,如果降低MCR到1.5,那么所有的爆仓单都会消失。

然后在同等的风险条件下(指债仓抵押率离MCR的距离)可提供的bitCNY增加了16.7%。

那么这样的调整有没有增加系统性的风险?例如,有没有增加黑天鹅风险?

现在bitCNY溢价超过11%,bitCNY持有者吃爆仓单的意愿很低,如果BTS价格持续下跌,爆仓单的量会继续增加但很难被吃掉,当前的全局清算价 - 0.1784很难继续降低。

而如果调低MCR, 会增加bitCNY的供应,有望减小bitCNY的溢价,不断吃掉爆仓单的可能性更大。

还有,关键的一点是,社区基本在“喂价要高于黑天鹅保护价以避免发生黑天鹅”这一点上已经达成比较强的共识,最坏的结果是,BTS价格继续大幅下跌,喂价停留在黑天鹅保护价上,bitCNY由于抵押不足出现明显贬值。

但,不管是否降MCR,这样的情况都可能发生,甚至可以说,降MCR降低了这样的事情发生的可能性,因为降低MCR后增多的bitCNY供应有望增加消除掉一些爆仓单的可能性。


81
I don't think this complaints is reasonable.

we have gone through the process from bsip drafting to bsip voting to implementation.

maybe I played a key role in the whole process, but even I do not know the exact time that MSSR change from 1.1 to 1.05.

I drafted the bsip and open the voting worker proposal.

as a proxy, I vote the bsip.

when the voting passed, i reminded the witnesses to change.

but should/can I give a time and request all the witnesses to change at that time?

I don't think this is necessary or very feasible.

if you run trade bots and the MSSR is important to your trading, you need to always get MSSR before trading.

now if more voting power oppose to reduce MSSR than support it, then theoretically witnesses can change the result just according to the voting result.

this is decentralization.



82
General Discussion / Re: To switch to feed real market price in CNY market?
« on: December 26, 2018, 11:28:26 am »
I will support gdex-witness if they agree to give the right feed price. feed price is the base requirment, not the sufficient.
And I still have to wait those witness who give wrong feed price be voted out.

we agree, kindly support.
I have supportted, but seems the feed price from gdex-witness still 3%-4% higher than market price.

will adapt soon.

83
General Discussion / Re: To switch to feed real market price in CNY market?
« on: December 26, 2018, 09:51:46 am »
I will support gdex-witness if they agree to give the right feed price. feed price is the base requirment, not the sufficient.
And I still have to wait those witness who give wrong feed price be voted out.

we agree, kindly support.

84
General Discussion / Re: To switch to feed real market price in CNY market?
« on: December 26, 2018, 08:33:55 am »
proxy bitcrab will vote these witnesses out tomorrow morning if they do not change, give them some time to response.

85
General Discussion / Re: To switch to feed real market price in CNY market?
« on: December 26, 2018, 07:10:00 am »
you are wrong to request permit from these witness.
the witness didn't have the authority to make the decide.
it's the voter's fault to keep these unresponsible witness acitve.

now the final feed price is already very close to real market price.

I greatly suggest you to support bsip41 right now, both can be pushed at the same time: real market price + MSSR=105%

86
General Discussion / To switch to feed real market price in CNY market?
« on: December 26, 2018, 06:07:36 am »
it's clear now that bsip42 is given up by the community.

the key flaw of bsip42 is that it may make the feed price much higher than market price and make the margin call orders just stay there without being eaten. this can lead to risk accumulation.

even though, we have learned that the negative feedback mechanism really works, it's possible that we update the solution, one of the solution update plan is here: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=27522.0

in the plan list the 4th -  reduce bitCNY force settlement offset to 2% - is finished, the 1st and 2rd involve big complex and need much time to reach consensus and implement.

the 3rd - change MSSR to 5% - is drafted as bsip41 and is now in voting process, in the voting process we can see it get big support from the community, however, some whales vote to oppose it as they do not want to reduce MSSR when some witnesses feed a price which is much higher than the market price.

as bsip42 is voted out, I think witnesses now need to feed real market price, right?

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=27672.msg326693;topicseen#msg326693 here we can see that @roelandp @xman @xn-delegate and @cyazybit now feed a price which is 5%+ higher than the market price, how about to switch to feed real market price? in order to make the whales to support bsip41?

87
中文(Chinese) / Re: 【讨论】后BSIP42时代bitCNY的规则改进
« on: December 25, 2018, 07:36:22 am »
我觉得蟹老板现在应该组织一下bts社区还有资金的散户 合力去外盘买入稳定下市值 然后提回内盘增加我们的投票权重

嗯,你拿出一个亿就行了,剩下的我包了。

88
中文(Chinese) / Re: 【讨论】后BSIP42时代bitCNY的规则改进
« on: December 25, 2018, 05:47:57 am »
我想OKEX的"MCR”值应该是固定,不是变动的。另:OkEX是1元当20元用,BTS是1.75(1.4)元当1元用。用户大概大数上也不一样,一个是期货杠杆用户,一个是普通用户。

都是杠杆用户,没什么区别。

OKEX没有稳定币供应量问题,所以不需要动态抵押率。

对BTS抵押系统来说,最大杠杆率=1/(MCR-1),可以自己算一下两种MCR对应的最大杠杆率。


89
another fact I need to talk is that the improved algorithm of margin call(sell part)  make the sell smooth, this can encourage people buy margin call order, reduce the blackswan risk.
the lower MCR given, the low effect from this new alogrithm. it will totally lose effect when MCR reduce to 1.

“encouraging” is always limited if supposing the total supply is always limited by the fixed MCR. and shortage of bitCNY always make bitCNY holders to expect even cheaper BTS.

lower MCR will bring more bitCNY supply, and definitely, not possible to reduce MCR to 1.


90
中文(Chinese) / Re: 【讨论】后BSIP42时代bitCNY的规则改进
« on: December 25, 2018, 04:30:05 am »
BTS价格从3毛多掉下来,原本消失的爆仓单再次出现,有3000多万。

这些爆仓单吃不掉,跟负反馈一点关系也没有。

归根到底,把“尽量高抵押,同时保证爆仓单吃掉以避免黑天鹅”作为一种风险控制目标是有问题的。

价格越低,bitCNY供应量就越少,同时随着bitCNY散落程度的加深,bitCNY持有者对溢价的期望也越来越高。

对于黑天鹅,不是要防范,而是要在技术上确保不发生黑天鹅,即便资不抵债,那就在贬值的情况下继续玩,也强过自杀式的全局清算。

而当前情况下,唯有在可接受范围内提高供应量,才能在一定程度上缓解风险,注意是缓解,而不是根本解决风险。

因为没有什么方法能根本解决风险,即便推行了动态MCR,也有可能达到MCR调到低无可调,但bitCNY依然高溢价。

此时只能接受了,但无论如何,这种情形依然比没有动态MCR的情形好太多。

就象现在的情况,想象一下如果现在MCR=1.4会带来什么不同的变化。

但以现在社区的分裂程度,以及推广动态MCR涉及的复杂性,只能说来日方长。

那先降一降MSSR怎样呢?先不说2%,先降到5%应该足够安全吧?

而且是在喂市场价的前提下。

但就这样的投票也通不过。

我只能说,这些保守派大户,最关心的是让自己的业务模式-高位屯bitCNY,地位吸BTS-能跑得通,挣得多,其它的,他们不关心。

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