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Messages - bitcrab

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76
中文(Chinese) / Re: 关于mcr及mssr的探讨
« on: May 15, 2019, 06:00:18 am »
低MSSR就意味着高风险?这种逻辑何其肤浅。

高MSSR的最大作用就是下跌市中制造连环爆仓加速下跌,并且给空头提供便利的做空工具。

多少次,爆一点仓根本没啥大不了,可就是高MSSR,让爆仓单砸盘,给空头高激励让空头砸盘爆仓收割。

政府为了防范火灾给救火行为高奖励,结果导致了一堆人去放火然后救火,放的火越大,得到的奖励越大。

现在不过是纠正这种扭曲,让放火行为变得无利可图。

低MSSR会使多方在多空博弈中变得相对有利,尤其是bitCNY有明显溢价的时候。

BTS是一个稳定币发行系统,机制中必须包含合理的对货币发行行为的激励,唯有如此才有可能把规模做上去。

MSSR调整的逻辑是在高于1的前提下尽量低,低到什么程度主要取决于市场深度。

杠杆交易本来就是风险投机的乐园,承担不了风险的人,只拿稳定币当交易和支付工具就好了,没人逼你抵押。

77
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 14, 2019, 03:40:29 pm »
I can sell you BTS for 6.2 cents like gdex-witness feeds if you want :)

sorry, gdex-witness will check and update USD price feeding, however that's not the excuse for you to not feed well. :)

78
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 14, 2019, 03:18:25 pm »
Time: UTC 14th May 15:08

BTS price in CNY should be about 0.4124*1.009 = 0.416CNY







Warning: verbaltech2, fox, zapata42-witness, blckchnd, delegate-1.lafona feed a price 2.3%+ lower than reasonable level.

79
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 14, 2019, 12:18:24 pm »
Thanks.

You're still ignoring the fact that there is a huge volume of poorly collateralized shorts out there, which means while BTS goes down the DEX price is permanently driven towards MSSR because of constant margin calling. Deriving the feed price from that skewed DEX price is what I'm primarily worried about, because it creates a dangerous feedback loop.

Also, I suspect that Chinese investors mostly do not invest in BTS, but they invest in BTC or other cryptos and use bitCNY/BTS merely as a vehicle. (I may be wrong of course.)

If large amounts of CNY enter the system that way, they will accept a worse-than-fair (less BTS per CNY and higher recharge rate) price, whereas when investors want to exit into CNY they will pay more BTS per CNY and accept a higher withdraw rate. Either way, the MagicWallet price will be skewed relative to the feed price. In a healthy market environment these differences would be resolved through arbitrage. Arbitrage is difficult here because of the general difficulty of investing CNY into cryptos. This only means that we must accept bigger differences, because with higher potential profits arbitrage will kick in at some point.

It is still debatable if the MagicWallet price reflects the fair price better than an external CEX. I see your logic there. At the very least though, the effect of margin calls on the DEX price must be taken into account.

what does CNY feed price mean? it means at which price you can do conversion between BTS and fiat CNY.

DEX price and bitCNY deposit/withdrawl fee in magic wallet is a good source to get such a price.

surely there are other ways, for example, the BTS/USDT price and USDT/CNY OTC price from huobi is also a good source to get such a price.

there may be price difference, but we should respect DEX enough as this is our home field, it is not acceptable that the feed price is much lower than the modified DEX price(2% or more), if you can really get BTS much cheaper than modified DEX price, please buy some and sell in DEX.

80
中文(Chinese) / Re: bitCNY/bitUSD的进化
« on: May 14, 2019, 11:19:14 am »
MSSR和喂价是两件事,喂价的问题应该由喂价本身解决。

黄单高悬与锁仓无关,是希望解决稳定币系统的经济激励问题,MSSR降到合适的位置,可以使得当bitCNY有明显溢价时,BTS多方在与空方的博弈中处于有利地位,从而激励稳定币的供应。

81
赶紧去医院吧,别耽误了。

82
“when bitCNY is in an obvious premium, BTS longs will get advantages in the long-short game.”

if we can make this happen, we will give incentive for bitCNY supply and good pegging.

I believe reducing MSSR to 1.01 will help to get this.

83
中文(Chinese) / Re: bitCNY/bitUSD的进化
« on: May 13, 2019, 05:00:56 am »
我仍然坚持认为“抵押出来的不是真钱“。

是不是真钱呢?随便吧,真较真的话也可以说USDT不是真美元,但这挡不住人家的广泛使用啊。
只要足够稳定,供应量上得去,就会有人愿意用,是不是真钱?who cares?

接下去考虑bitCNY MSSR降到1.01,推这个,主要是希望造成这样一种局面:当bitCNY有明显溢价时,多方在多空博弈中将占据有利态势。
而且也有利于更好的锚定。

84
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 12, 2019, 12:06:49 pm »
Quote

2. there were people crying in the past that "it's easy to dump in CEX to trigger margin calls in DEX". Come on, please put thick enough buy orders with your own money in CEX to prevent the price from dropping.
I don't think this focus on the topic and a good talking.

You can you up?

Is it not a truth? or the design of feed price is perfect and not allowed people to judge it?
People complained that witnesses updated price feed too fast when there is a dump happened on CEX. Now same people complain that witnesses updated price feed too slow when there is a pump? WTF?

Both longs and shorts are traders, we should treat them equally. That said, feed fair price, not too high, not too low. Don't change interval in downtrend nor in uptrend.

it's easy to say political correct words like "we should treat shorts and longs equally", but I don't think these words get the key points of this ecosystem.

in BTS, shorts and longs(here longs means BTS long, means the debt position owners) are naturally not equal.

longs has an leverage tool to use, and at the same time bear the risk of margin call, and at the same time longs create smartcoin supply which is base of this ecosystem.

shorts does not.

so the rules should firstly be fair to longs, prohibit longs from being unfairly exploited, this is relevant to what we will build - a financial system with amazing stable coins or a gambling house.

that's why I emphasize the principle "price feed should not conflict with the modified DEX price(DEX price plus premium/discount)".

and I feel this statement is self-explanatory: "if a BTS/smartcoin pair in DEX has good enough market depth and volume, it should play the most important role in price feed determination."

because any CEX may have fake volume, naked shorts, etc., but DEX does not.

and because DEX is our home field.

this is not ignoring price in CEX, actually any big price change in CEX can be transmitted to DEX quickly, if price change in one CEX is not transmitted to DEX, it can be ignored.
 
it's reluctant to ask BTSer to put money to CEX to sustain the price, DEX should be the front that reflect the final short-long battle result.

85
中文(Chinese) / Re: bitCNY/bitUSD的进化
« on: May 12, 2019, 12:00:28 pm »
其实还有个思路。
你创建一系列 GDEX.XXXCNY 智能资产,比如GDEX.BTCCNY GDEX.ETHCNY GDEX.EOSCNY
抵押品用 GDEX.BTC GDEX.ETH GDEX.EOS,作为 bitcny 的补充,曲线救国。
参数方面爱怎么设就怎么设。但最好不要天天调。
宣传一下,估计会有人玩。
有人玩的话,搬砖机器人就会保证一定的流动性。
虽然GDEX是我的,我也保证不了GDEX一定不出事啊,把机制寄托在GDEX发行的资产上,有什么意义呢?
我要是觉得自己的或者GDEX的信用足够强,决定自己去创造信用,那就去发行一个QC或者CNC之类的资产好了,还搞什么抵押啊,累不累呀。
你自己的东西你都没信心,别人怎么有信心?

你自己的东西你都不操心,天天关注bitcny的鸡蛋问题,你觉得这样对BTS是最好吗?

明知道GDEX交易量上来有利于BTS。

BTS价格起来,bitcny供应量自然会增加。
不把重心放在把价格搞上去,而是放在价格不变的情况下最大加杠杆,有意思吗?

交易手续费分成的功能出来1个月了。这么好的东西怎么不用起来?

这就是你认知的局限,还BTS价格起来,bitCNY供应量自然会增加,规则方面的准备不做好,BTS价格做起来,给空头造炮架吗?

水管设计好造好,水自然会流向有利的方向。

MCR也只是从1.75降到1.6,比DAI的1.5还要高一截,何谓“最大加杠杆”?

有意思吗?你可以问问朱镕基,在经济低迷时搞“积极的货币政策”有意思没有。

至于降MSSR,那就更不只是简单的加杠杆,其目的是尽力在多空博弈的特定场景下-也就是smartcoin明显溢价的情况下-使得规则更有利于多方,不如此,何以将水流导向有利的方向?

我正准备联系火币,商谈火币参与投票治理,以及bitUSD加入到火币USD池等几件事情,可是就现在USD那点可怜的供应量,那点可怜的深度和高溢价,你觉得我好意思向李林开口吗?

我所说的没信心,是指我不觉得GDEX.BTC达到了可以作为稳定币抵押物这样的信用级别,不要说GDEX.BTC,我觉得币安发行的BTC凭证一样达不到。

这不等于说我对GDEX.BTC的基本安全没信心。

搞多抵押物,还是看看HTLC能搞到什么程度吧,如果真能成熟,靠HTLC引入BTC,ETH,EOS抵押也许是可以考虑的。

不错,我是天天操心bitCNY,因为我觉得DEX和smartcoin是互相成就的,没有bitCNY起来带来的购买力和便捷支付效应,我不觉得DEX,以及GDEX在和现今头部CEX的竞争中有多少竞争力。

86
中文(Chinese) / Re: bitCNY/bitUSD的进化
« on: May 12, 2019, 10:45:52 am »
存在一个“转换价格”,就是从“随爆随吃”状态转到“黄单高悬”状态的价格,这个价格并不是一个固定的价格,受市场深度和情绪影响,也高度依赖于MSSR,但这个价格对于评价安全还是很有用处的。

目前MSSR=1.02的情况下,bitCNY的转换价格是大约0.4CNY不到一点,对应最高0.25的全局清算价,应该说还是很安全的。

如果把MSSR降为1.01,根据经验,bitCNY的转换价格大约会变为0.5CNY或者不到一点,对应最高0.313的全局清算价。

换种说法呢,如果MSSR降为1.01,在大约0.5CNY以下的价格区间内,都会有比较强的贴线抵押加仓的动力,为系统提供良好的流动性,但有一定的爆仓单累积的风险,最坏结果是在0.313处进入黑天鹅防护状态。在0.5CNY之上呢,不会产生爆仓单累积带来的风险,但贴现抵押加仓的动力也会变小。

bitCNY生态发展意味着这个转换价格需要慢慢变高,用MSSR越来越接近于1来实现。
这么说有一定道理。但是黑天鹅防护价格提高不见得是什么好事。

生态的发展一定伴随着黑天鹅防护价格的提高,这是必须面对的。

87
中文(Chinese) / Re: bitCNY/bitUSD的进化
« on: May 12, 2019, 10:44:05 am »
其实还有个思路。
你创建一系列 GDEX.XXXCNY 智能资产,比如GDEX.BTCCNY GDEX.ETHCNY GDEX.EOSCNY
抵押品用 GDEX.BTC GDEX.ETH GDEX.EOS,作为 bitcny 的补充,曲线救国。
参数方面爱怎么设就怎么设。但最好不要天天调。
宣传一下,估计会有人玩。
有人玩的话,搬砖机器人就会保证一定的流动性。
虽然GDEX是我的,我也保证不了GDEX一定不出事啊,把机制寄托在GDEX发行的资产上,有什么意义呢?
我要是觉得自己的或者GDEX的信用足够强,决定自己去创造信用,那就去发行一个QC或者CNC之类的资产好了,还搞什么抵押啊,累不累呀。

88
我想知道,如果BTC再次下跌到3千美元探底,BTS是不是一定会到0.05元人民币?

0.05哪够啊,再怎么着也得探到2分不是吗?

89
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 10, 2019, 07:58:09 am »
Again, our feeds are not every second. It's a price snap shot taken within some specific period 20-40 minutes (2 in your case) so it's an unreasonable statement based on some snapshot in time. price feeds should average out to a true price among all witnesses. Look at the screen shots later on, my price happen to be 2% above on the other side of that price medium is that a warning also?
And when will GDEX start feeding all prices? Should be unvoted  by proxies until it does.

feed price should reflect the real market price, 20-40 minutes as price taking period is not acceptable.

"the higher, the better" is not my opinion. but now the main problem of feed price is some witnesses always feed too low price. we need to focus on this.

it's not difficult for me to request my coder to add feed price to all the smartcoins, but I am not sure that will make big sense.

taking bitEUR as one example, it has a supply of 57000 EUR and 24hour volume is about 4000 BTS, there are many users and important community members that come from Europe, but anyone care bitEUR?

if we really want to cultivate bitEUR, we need to consider to change something, such as MSSR, MCR, market fee etc., but seems no one want to do that.


90
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 10, 2019, 07:47:51 am »
only got round to accessing my feed script today just now.

My feed was actually the highest just now without changing anything a few hours later...I know we all wish BTS never moved down but guess what...it does....are we gonna have this discussion and people calling hard-working witnesses names EVERY time BTS moves down? Let me know so I can be prepared. It's crypto...it's volatile...it goes up and and it goes down. I don't like it either but it happens.

Still... I disabled the outlier CoinEgg component of the feed as it seems untrustworthy. Feed now 4% above median

I don't think the higher feed price, the better, feed price should reflect the real market price. as feed price will have direct impact some operation, such as margin call, borrowing, force settlement.

it is not easy to judge what is "real market", but at least we can have some principles:

first, it is to get DEX price plus with smartcoin premium/discount as a reference, this is the most important reference.

second, it's not good to get average price of too long period and feed, an average of 5 min should be fine.

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