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Messages - bitcrab

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676
If we all agree that MSSR should be 0%, MCR at 1.0 and force settlement as high as we can (100%?), we should be able to get everyone creating some bitCNY, but who is going to buy it? I would rather see a bit smaller MCR than non-existent MSSR.

you misunderstood what I mean. I don't forget the basic financial principle.

I don't think MCR can be reduced to 1, in my view, it is possible to go down to say 1.5 or 1.4 and stay there without going down.

MSSR is possible to go to 1, but need step by step.

force settlement offset is not supposed to go as high as possible, I don't think there is a "the higher, the better" logic for this offset, actually, now 2% for bitCNY is as low as possible, as up to now we do not have an always reliable feed price.

677
the only way can help increase the supply is provide more real money support BTS.

this statement is 100% correct but senseless.

rules are like tubes, funds are like water, to which direction will the water flow depend on how the tube is designed.

everyone knows that the ecosystem need real money to support, but as a system designer, what we need to consider is how to design the tubes well, then the water will be directed to the BTS ecosystem from outside.

what we need to do is to optimize the rules, to make it more friendly to BTS longers,  less friendly to BTS shorters, and of course, based on the base financial principles.

what we have done on this way:

introduce target CR.
reduce MSSR
increase force settlement offset.

what we can do in the future:

reduce MCR
reduce MSSR continually
introduce "close short" feature.
...

I think you just experienced what's the difference that MSSR=1.1 and MSSR=1.02 can make, the big price fall in 11th April is relevant to high MSSR and your big USD debt position, if MSSR has been reduced to 1.02 before that day, I think it's highly possible that the big price fall will not happen.

and the change from 1.02 to 1.01 also make sense, it reduce the profit expectation for shortening BTS.
 

678
I will not support reduce MSSR less than 1.02.
sure we need to keep some profit space for those who help eat the margin call order.
I saw some people want to reduce MSSR because they think feed price is too lower than it should be,
they should try to change feed price instead of change MSSR. there is big different between these two problem.

I agree that price feed problem and MSSR problem are different and need different ways to solve.

but after so long time practice,  I think we should understand more deeply on the margin call rule sets.

first, can we just ragard the profit space for eating margin call orders as same as "MSSR-1"?

No, actually when the debt position is margin called/the collateral is forced to be sold, the profit space for eating margin call/the punishment to debt position owners is there.

even if MSSR = 1.

because if you are provided the rights to buy some volume of BTS at the current market price, don't you think this right worth some money?

the same logic that trader need to pay for American options.

and what we can see clearly is that, either we set MSSR=1.1 or 1.02 does not determine whether the margin call orders be eaten or not, the more important factor is market sentiment.

the disadvantage of high MSSR is that, it benefit more on shorting BTS, and then encourage traders to short BTS.

so my ideas on MSSR setting is, MSSR should be greater or equal to 1, the lower, the better.

for bitCNY, 1.02 is a value that do not lead to "margin call orders not eaten" phenomena, it's time to consider to reduce MSSR more, to discourage shorters, to ensure better pegging.

for bitUSD, 1.02 is a value that margin call orders always stay there without being eaten, so no need to consider to reduce MSSR currently.



680
Stakeholder Proposals / [Poll] BSIP59:Reduce MSSR of bitCNY to 1.01
« on: April 16, 2019, 06:04:35 pm »
As MSSR values, 1% and 2% are different at:

1. 1% will lead to better pegging at time while margin call price impact the expectation on BTS price.

2. 1% reduce the benefits of shorting BTS in half.

3. lower MSSR will make the margin call orders a little more difficult to be eaten. and may lead to some risk accumulation.


Please find BSIP59 Doc: https://github.com/bitshares/bsips/blob/master/bsip-0059.md for detailed info of BSIP59.

Two worker proposals have been created for this poll:

1.14.181   Poll - BSIP59 - Reduce MSSR of bitCNY to 1.01

1.14.169   Poll - BSIP59 - Do Not Reduce MSSR of bitCNY

please consider the 2 choices carefully before you vote.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

update:

As 1.14.169 expired, a new WP is created to replace it:

1.14.191   Poll - BSIP59 - Do Not Reduce MSSR of bitCNY to 1.01

If you are against to reduce MSSR of bitCNY to 1.01, please vote 1.14.191

681
一个想法:见证人不喂价格,只喂溢价。

价格由系统根据内盘价格信息结合溢价信息计算出。

682
我们有很现成的一个例子可以学习, 他们学习BTS的长处, 为什么BTS不能学习他们的长处?

选择可信任的预言机(Oracles):​Maker 平台通过去中心化的预言机基础设施获取抵押物的内部价格和 Dai 的市场价格,这一基础设置包含很广泛的预言机个体节点。MKR 持有者控制哪些节点可以作为可信任的预言机及其数量多少。只要超过半数的预言机正常运行,系统的安全就不会受到破坏。

喂价的见证人和预言机有什么区别?

683
we are always telling the traders like this:

"hi guys, look at this, now you need to pay 0.441*1.015(current bitCNY premium) = 0.4476 CNY to buy 1BTS, but if you margin call price is above 0.4388, your debt position will be margin called, so wonderful, right?"



684
Every time people in communities outside China talk about the premium of bitcny, they seem to have no idea about the premium at all. I think this should be because they have never tried to buy BTS with direct RMB. They simply cannot understand what the Chinese community has been complaining about.

it's easy to understand if  they want to.

you can get the premium simply if you install magicwallet in your mobile.





you can also contact magicwallet team to request an API to get the data with program - yes, you need to do that if you are a witness.
 

685
If I were a trader and saw that margin calls happen regularly, I would place my sell orders 2% above the price at which the least collateralized short position is margin called, for an instant 2% profit. If I wanted to buy CNY on the DEX I would place my order 2% above that price, because otherwise I have no chance of getting it filled.

Thus, margin calls and feed price and MSSR all interact with each other. The DEX price is driven by margin calls, which are in turn driven by the feed price and MSSR.

If you reduce the MSSR to 1% the premium will also go down to 1%. Does changing MSSR change the "fair" price of bitCNY? I think not, but according to your logic the fair price would then be 1% higher than it is now, not 2%.

On an external exchange you don't have that effect, because the external exchange is not influenced by margin calls in the way that the DEX is. The result is that the external trade price is much more natural than the DEX price, and so can more reasonably be called a "fair" price.

premium is not a fixed value, 1.8% is the value in these 2 days, 4 days before, the premium is about 0.5%. you can only get this value in the market.

MSSR has impact on premium but it does not determine the premium.

686
I don't care what cause the premium, the fact is the premium is there.

You can't repair it if you don't find out why it's broken.

And IMO it is quite obvious why it's broken: https://wallet.bitshares.org/#/asset/CNY lists over 200 short positions with a CR of less than 1.8. Whenever BTS goes down a tiny bit in relation to CNY, all of these get margin called, which eats all orders up to MSSR from the market.

Also, almost all of them have set a target CR of 1.75, so it's clear that these short positions are *deliberately* kept at such a low collateralization.

Fiddling with the feed price is not going to change any of this. Effectively you are trying to re-apply BSIP-42, with the same reasoning, the same justification and probably also the same outcome.

If they can't find the “fair” feed price, they should be blamed as they accepted the work.

Like I said, in the presence of skewed external markets there is no such thing as *the correct price*. What you call fair may be unfair on others.

I feel you misunderstood what I mean, I do not want to "repair" the premium here, I just want the feed price reflect the right price.

it's quite easy to know the "right" price, at least when I am sure that bitCNY has premium and your feed price is far lower than DEX price definitely you are wrong.

at least we need to ensure that the feed price do not conflict with DEX price.

orders are filled every minutes, some margin call orders does not change the fact.

687
        这么长时间的内盘运行证明,喂价取高一点没什么不好,但是低了危害就很大,所以内盘价格做底线是非常重要的。喂价哪怕只低于现价一两个点,做空都会容易很多,连环爆仓来的就容易的多。
       mssr还应当下调,调到零才对。bts下跌的时候,按道理说其抵押资产bitcny应当适当贬值才对,至少不应当升值,我们的制度正好相反,反市场的理念造成爆仓对市场的压制。mssr调成零,就不会让bitcny在市场下跌的时候升值。

正常市场条件下内盘价格做底线应该成为一个基本的原则,此外需要考虑应对极端情况。

喂价高一点没关系,但不是说高就好,高了会增大进入黑天鹅防护状态的概率,应该“确保底线前提下尽量准确”。

BTS下跌时bitCNY供应减少,升值是正常现象,MSSR可以继续调低,调到1.01应该有可能,不知道是否可以调到1.

688
The reason for the premium is that (once again) shorters are deliberately keeping their positions in margin call territory, which means all orders below MSSR get eaten up by margin calls. Using the DEX price as the feed in this situation would be completely wrong, because the margin calls *define* the DEX price in terms of feed price and MSSR. There is your feedback loop.

Blaming this on the witnesses is short-sighted and unfair IMO.

I don't care what cause the premium, the fact is the premium is there.

feed price + MSSR does not define the DEX price, we have seen a lot that there is no determination relationship between these. especially for bitCNY, which has a good depth that now margin call orders will be eaten instantly while they appear.

feed price is one key part of the whole rules, if feed price does not reflect the real market price, the whole rule sets will not work well.

feed price is serving DEX trading, DEX trading has enough big real volume, it's not acceptable that the feed price conflict with DEX price.

CEX price always involve many uncertain factors, naked short selling, faked volume, USDT premium...we need to be very careful while calculate feed price from CEX price.



689
实在不想吐槽这种的喂价机制,但是实在是忍不住的想说声****

必须规定见证人的喂价刷新时间不能低于三分钟,不然怎么反应实时法币价格?10分钟20分钟的一刷新有什么用?

连基本的实时法币价格都锚不了?!!!



刷新快的话,外盘做空更容易。稍微砸砸,内盘就爆了。

这里有个权衡的。

还是那句话,要想bitcny稳,除非真金白银护盘。

规则合理是第一重要的,其次才是真金白银。

规则好比管道,金银好比水,管道决定了水往什么方向流。

实施了目标抵押率和MSSR降低之后,现在爆仓不是什么大事。

如果bitUSD的MSSR能早一天降,估计上周四的跌价会小很多。

喂价是规则的一部分,喂价合理与否也会起到导流的作用。

个人建议的一种喂价计算方法:

if 内盘修正价>1.1*外盘价  ##当有外盘砸盘或者内盘拉盘等极端情况时,取平均值
   喂价 = (内盘修正价+外盘价)/2
otherwise                      ##正常价格平稳状态时,在内盘修正价和外盘价中取高
   喂价 = max(内盘修正价,外盘价)

喂价是为内盘杠杆交易服务的,内盘又足够大的交易量,而且完全是真实交易量,喂价的计算中理应对内盘价格有足够尊重,在正常市场状态时,喂价不应低于内盘修正价。

外盘离内盘较远,真实交易量经常无法判断,时有裸卖空之类的剧情发生,因此,喂价计算中对外盘价格应该有足够的防范,避免被外盘砸盘牵着鼻子走。


690
unvoted clockwork,  blckchnd,  delegate-1.lafona.

cannot bear this, bitCNY has a 1.8% premium at this moment, but the DEX price is always higher than the feed price!




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