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Messages - bitcrab

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1186
必须降低并取消掉以BTC换算的喂价比例, 即使相对于BTC定价的价格不变, 只要BTC的价格一有变动, BTS的换算价格就会被带下去, 喂价也会被大量以BTC为喂价换算的带下去, 本身从BTC换算到BITCNY的过程中就存在诸多变动参数, 并不能准确的反应实际法币价格, 绝大数情况是大幅低于实际法币价格.

必须增加以直接以鼓鼓钱包+手续费\QC\CNC\\USDT等实际法币代币的喂价权重, 极大程度的降低甚至于取消以BTC换算的喂价权重, 将锚定资产的喂价从BTC定价的枷锁中脱离出来.

喂价应当以实际的法币或者法币代币为准绳, 而不是以另外一种自身价格极不稳定的BTC或ETH或其它代币为准绳, 锚定资产脱离掉它们的定价限制才能独立发展, 而不能成为它们的牵线木偶.

如果采用“最高价”方案,那就没有什么权重问题了,反正是最高的价格被采用。

作用:

1. 在市场快速下跌时减缓喂价下跌的节奏,给债仓持有者更多的时间应对。避免各类突发异常事件造成的突然下跌造成的伤害。

2.让“定点爆仓”无路可走。

3.在多空对决的战场上给予多方选择战场的权利,给多方更多便利,引导资金流向多方。

1187
现在看来,公市基金应该更多地通过在市场做多情绪明显时出货来积累弹药,减少抵押来产生弹药的比例。

毕竟对公市基金来说BTS是源源不断流入的,而bitCNY/bitUSD却很宝贵。而抵押又是把双刃剑。

复盘这段时间,应该在1.4左右就开始逐步少量出货。

1188
select a time and check the feed price

at the time in DEX the latest price is 0.728 bitCNY, from magicwallet we can see bitCNY has a 7.8% premium, so the price in DEX is 0.728*1.078 = 0.785



the marked red feed prices are 2% more lower than the DEX price and are not satisfactory.



the point is not how big 2% is, the point is that the debt position should be protected until the last time, should be prevented from being destroyed by any unusual events in any exchanges, that's the core idea of "the highest one" road.

hope more witnesses can switch to this price feeding model in recent future.

1189
the way i see it that markets are always on the move. every witness is running pricefeed scripts monitoring the markets. this should be as accurate as possible sand have certain treshold when to update parameters in place. some witnesses run updates at fixed intervals, others whenever price changes by x percent or a combination of both. pricefeeds are always reactive to the market and some witnesses respond faster or frequenter then others  or have different parameters for example in weight of individual exchanges. this leaves to differences in published feeds and that is something which is when dealing with this living organic oracle a good thing I think. because the ultimate pricefeed is taken from the median any anomalities are equalled out, provided enough witnesses are running correct pricefeedscripts.

that said, i will give a look whether my markets-to-monitor portfolio is still accurate.
clockwork suggested about cointiger. i will add that one asap.

currently looking at https://roelandp.nl/bitshareswitnesslog/ i see my feed for CNY diverges 1.7% from the current median: (1.27 vs 1.25) which I think is perfectly within bounds.

on my aforementioned page, pricefeeds with divergence of more than 5% off median are reported in red as well as outdated pricefeeds

update: to chime in on the “markets always moving statement”: now im looking 1 hour later at my feed and see a difference of 0.9% from the median (1.24) in my published feed at 1.25.

note that the page caches results for 15 minutes.

my suggestion give some new idea on price feeding, in order to protect debt positions from being destroyed by targeting attacks or unusual events as mentioned below.

we observed such CEX behavior not once, especially on poloniex when they closing withdraw/deposit and dumping bts
dex community must protect themselves from such behavior

so if we accept the new model, the metrics to judge whether one withess feed price correct enough will be different: say, if your fed price are always obviously (more than 1%) lower than the price of anyone exchange, you should fix it.

1190
the fed price from several witnesses are obviously lower than it should be. as marked red in the pic.

at the time of the snapshot, in DEX the price is above 0.815CNY.

hope the marked witnesses can upgrade the price feeding scripts in time.


1191
reply to several comments:

"the highest one" model surely cannot prevent the debt position from being margin called, earlier or later, what the new model can bring is:

1. it makes more difficult for shorters to do the "targeting selling to make margin calling", I believe this kind operation will disappear if the new model can be applied by most of the witnesses.

2. previously some abnormal low price appear and make some position margin called, which actually should not happen, for example, last year when polo stoped BTS deposit/withdraw, this happened several times. the new model can prevent this events from happening.

the harm of fed price bias to longers(debt position owner) and shorters are asymmetric,when lower bias happen, longers are hurt by margin calling, when higher bias happen, nothing happen to shorters, they can go to the exchange with highest price and sell BTS.

the margin call rule is designed to release risk in time, not to provide chance for shorters to make profit, definitely the rule should be more friendly to longers.

the BTS/bitCNY pair in DEX has the biggest volume of BTS on the earth, and it's easy to do bitCNY/fiat CNY conversion, so it's a reliable price data source, and adopt "the highest one" bring no problem, if the highest price is too high than that in other exchanges, arbitrator will pull it down rapidly.

1192
对喂价应该有个工具来监控。

比如搞个喂价K线图,每个见证人的喂价变化情况一目了然,谁喂价靠谱谁不靠谱一目了然。

1193
锚定是一整套机制保证的,包括抵押,爆仓,强清等等,而这一切的发生都要依赖于喂价,所以,说锚定是由喂价保证也不算错。

但现在的问题并不是是否能锚定的问题,熊市中bitCNY稀缺,稀缺就有溢价,这个也不是锚定机制发生了问题,而且bitCNY也并没有贬值,反而有升值。

我主张喂价机制应该对多头更友好,是因为在市场中喂价偏差对空头和多头的影响是不对称的。

喂价偏低了,多头会被随时收割,这种情况在当初P网停止冲提时发生过许多次。而喂价偏高,对空头没什么大影响,大不了去价高的交易所把价格砸下来好了。

设计爆仓机制,是为了让风险及时得到释放,不是为了给空头创造盈利机会的。取交易所价格中最高的来喂价,也并不影响风险的释放,只不过给空头的玩法带来了一些困难而已,难道不该给空头带来更多困难吗?

现在比以前还是有些进步的,至少跌到这个鸟样,因为target CR新功能的原因,CNY盘面上并没有爆仓单压盘,而USD盘面就不行了,那是流动性和深度不够的原因。

BTS要发展,需要更多资金进来,需要更多交易所用bitCNY,需要吸引更多用户,但也需要本身的杠杆机制更有利于做多,需要价格能够上一个新台阶。做多当然不是靠本身的杠杆就行了,当然需要外部资金进来,但如果本身机制对做多不足够有利的话,资金怎么进来,价格上不去,bitCNY就这点供应量,怎么去说服交易所用bitCNY?

我希望改变之后:

价跌时当然也有爆仓,但定点爆破将变得不可行,会消失。而且,抵押者无需担心某个交易所异常低价带来的被收割。



1194
事后补救的时候,伤害已经发生。

“最高价”方案可以提前就防止这种事情的发生,反正你低下去了我不采用你的就是了。

1195
one question, after we guarantee the basic fairness, should the business logic be more friendly to longers or shorters?

definitely longers, I think no need to explain more.

suppose now in poloniex the BTS price is 0.81CNY, in DEX it is 0.84CNY, highest in all the source, which price should be adopted as price?

if we need to be more friendly to longers, obviously 0.84 is the answer, if shorters think this unfair, OK, come to DEX and make the price down by selling.

yes, we need more money to come, eagerly, but at first we have to optimize the top design and the business logic continually, if the logic is always more friendly to shorters,  what new money dare to come?




1196
我承认,确实有些地方做得不够好,比如没有及时用测试版钱包给自己的债仓设目标抵押率。

我同意适当地逐步引入更多的合适人选来进行管理,比如,我已经呼吁过好几次,让来自USD世界的理事会成员来接手committee-usdoperator的管理,我可以退出,但好像没人搭理我。

但我并不太同意公开招聘基金操盘手,这并不纯粹是个技术问题,到现在为止我的想法,操盘手还是基本应该从理事会成员里产生。

更专业的人士当然可以对基金如何操作参与意见。

关于操作的规则问题,坦率讲,当初制定的标准太过简单,并不适合一直沿用下去。

这里面有个基本的矛盾,就是抵押效率与安全性之间的矛盾,作为平准基金,其实在市场最低迷的时候是最需要出来护盘的,如果一味为了保证安全坚持太高的抵押率,就根本起不了什么作用。

而且,我觉得committee-cnytrader的抵押率基本上都是可以接受的,committee-usdoperator少量时间有抵押率过低的情况。这里公市基金跟通常的私募基金有个重要区别,就是公市基金每天有20万BTS+bitCNY和bitUSD手续费的收入,其实抗风险能力是比一般私募基金强的。

当然,没有给社区做充分说明是不太应该,但我实在是太缺时间了。。。

还有,关于公市基金和源水基金的冲突问题。

我可以肯定地说,当前情况下公市基金和源水基金不可能成为对手盘,甚至源水基金成立的目的之一就是要帮助还比较弱小的公市基金来完成平准的任务,但如果换了人来管理公市基金,是否会成为对手盘就不得而知了。


1197
Interesting - for sure.
Also sure (at least to me) is that price feeds need to grow and be taken more seriously as markets mature. Witnesses need to take their responsibility serious and keep up with market price.

We had quite some discussion also with @alt/@bazozi about what a "fair" price for CNY/USD/BTS actually is and I do not think it is possible to come to a *single* price that reflects the BTS price
properly taking into account all the markets and market sentiments in different countries. That is why markets require arbitrators - yet some markets have an offset even on centralized exchanges.

We need to start discussing whether bitCNY is supposed to be worth 1CNY given that it is a digital representative that can be spend easily around the globe, that comes with a 'benefit' over regular fiat CNY (same for USD etc...)
Additionaly, I refrain from acting *quickly* out of markets behaving unexpected. The movements in the last days, shouldn't be take as arguments to modify the smart coin parameters (feeds).
There is a much bigger picture to bitCNY and that is long-term predictability.

Those that sold their BTS on CEX to buy from margin calls on another exchange (DEX) is *business as usual*. Could have well been caused by arbitrators instead of feed producers.

That said, I am not totally against experimentation - but I would rather see small steps and proper discussion before implementation.
Do we understand all the implications of "raising" the price "artificially"?

yesterday is not the first time that we experience such kind of tragedy,  and I don't think "sell BTS in CEX and then buy from the margin called positions" can be regarded as "usual business". the point is, the margin call is created by the selling activity in CEX, this is exploitation with clear purpose, not usual arbitration.

from the perspective of Bitshares ecosystem, it is needed to update the rule to remove the chance for such kind of exploitation by shorting, otherwise, Bitshares will never grow up or be able to provide amazing smartcoin services.

does the current BTS price, 0.87 CNY reflect the real value of BTS? I don't think so, it is just the result of one exploitation, if the rules can be optimized to fix the flaw, BTS can stand in another level.

1198
General Discussion / Re: review the drastic fall
« on: August 10, 2018, 09:22:39 am »
what we want is just to avoid the price maunipulation from outside DEX.

Who/how can manipulate the price from outside of DEX?

sometimes traders can sell big in centralized exchange and then lower the feed price to make some debt position margin called and eat the margin called order.

long long ago, this happen a lot in poloniex but now seldom because now a lot big exchanges list BTS so it's not easy to manipulate the feed price.

OK, so you are trying to create a solution to the problem that doesn't exist/is small/is improbable.


it's clear that today BTS's falling down is not so related to BTC, BTC fell down slowly today, and the lowest price even do not touch yesterday's lowest price.

it's clear that the BTS's chart is somehow independent, clearly that some shorters find the chance and attack accuratelly.

it's a pity that now it's still so easy for shorters to attack BTS.

BTS need to evolve rapidly to discourage shorting, one price feeding relevangt suggestion is here https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=26914.0

"it's not easy to manipulate the feed price" vs "it's a pity that now it's still so easy for shorters to attack BTS"... I'm confused now, is it easy or not?

more than 1 year ago, when poloniex is almost the only one big CEX that list BTS, manipulation is very easy, now it is not so easy as before, but it is possible and not so difficult, we need to make it almost impossible.

1199
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: Proxy: bitcrab - make the ecosystem grow
« on: August 10, 2018, 07:49:39 am »
in the recent past the CNY feeding from elmato is too low to be reasonable, unvote it temporarily.

BTS need some change on price feeding to protect the ecosystem from being attacked by shorters, suggest witnesses can feed price with the suggestion here as a reference.https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=26914.msg320692;topicseen#msg320692


1200
General Discussion / Re: review the drastic fall
« on: August 10, 2018, 05:33:46 am »
Stop trying to control the price feed to dictate BTS price.

You are going way to far and proofing all you care was holding the price 1.08 CNY at all cost

yes, if I can I will sell you to human trader and then buy BTS with the income.

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