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Messages - bitcrab

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1171
General Discussion / Re: suggestion to witnesses on "the highest one" CNY price feeding model
« on: August 16, 2018, 07:52:29 am »
Quote from: xeroc on August 16, 2018, 07:23:30 am
Quote from: bitcrab on August 15, 2018, 03:23:28 am
we all trust market, but in the real market the arbitrage is not always easy, if you want to do arbitrage between polo "BTS/BTC" pair and DEX "BTS/bitCNY" pair, you need to go through a long trading chain and always cost much time, so if in the referenced exchanges there are big price difference, adopt the highest is a good choice - always select the highest price make sense.

feed price do not necessarily reflect the instant market price fall, system should avoid the feed price be pulled down by sudden events in single exchanges,.that's why "the highest one" suggestion comes out.

surely there should be some "price fire wall" setting to avoid adopting unreasonable too high prices.

Let's not start "fighting the market" .. if *VOLUME SUPPORTS* a price crash, then the feed should acknoledge that fact and call for margin.

A price firewall is nuBits-style manipulation and we all know how that ended. So, either the market decides or the reserves are wasted into the markets for trying the achieve the impossible: "force a price".

I feel here is misunderstanding to the price fire wall.

for example, if many witnesses adopt "the highest price" model, and at one moment in one referenced exchange some unusual event happen and provide wrongly too high price that do not reflect the market status, how should the witnesses handle this? directly adopt the price will bring a disaster, I think witness need to have some logic, such as "if one exchange price is 20% higher than the average, give up it" , to filter out this kind of price.

1172
中文 (Chinese) / Re: 入金手续费由BITCNY供应量决定的误区
« on: August 16, 2018, 04:03:18 am »
赞成降低MSSR以及把强清补偿和抵押率挂钩。

打个比方，BTS好比一架飞机，多方总是想让它飞起来，空方总是想把它拉下来。

如果真的飞起来了，多方获利，如果飞了一半被拉下来了，空方获利。

作为一个自带杠杆的系统，BTS有一系列的规则来保证风险及时得到释放。同时这套规则也决定了多方和空方的获利路径。

现在总体看，规则过于保守，对空方过分有利，需要不断修改，当然是在保证“风险及时得到释放”的前提下。

不然，BTS就是一架永远也飞不起来的飞机。

飞起来需要引入更多资金和用户，同意，但这跟修改规则不矛盾。




1173
General Discussion / Re: Is it a good idea to lower MSSR of bitCNY from 1.1 to 1.05 or even lower?
« on: August 16, 2018, 03:41:22 am »
Quote from: abit on August 15, 2018, 11:21:23 am
Why not 1.001? Why not 1.5?

let me try to explain why.

as shown below, when feed price fall down and reach margin call price, the calling process begin. debt positions are margin called and the collateral will be sold at feed price/MSSR, this is the process to release risks of not-enough-collateral.

MSSR is an important parameter here, it determine the gap between margin call price and the margin call order sell price, and will impact the behavior of different roles.

the higher the MSSR, the bigger the gap, the easier the margin call order will be eaten, but at the same time, the higher profit of shorting and the bigger the shorting incentive.

the lower the MSSR, the smaller the gap, more difficult the margin call order will be eaten, however at the same time, the lower the profit of shorting and the smaller the shorting incentive.

so what a MSSR is appropriate depend on the market status.

after 719 fork provide the target CR new feature, we can see in bitCNY market most of the time the margin called orders are filled instantly at the price close to market price, only when the market price is too low and bitCNY has a premium of more than 10%, there will be margin called orders stay there as sell pressure.



in my view, the depth of bitCNY market is well enough that no need to set a too high MSSR, it's possible to lower MSSR to 1.05 to lower the sell pressure as well as shorting incentive.

but I don't think it's a good idea to do the same to bitUSD now, as the market depth is not good enough yet.

I am not sure whether one day we can set MSSR to 1.001. but I think it is not feasible now, let's lower the shorting incentive step by step.


 

 
 

1174
General Discussion / Re: Some suggesttions to the Collateral，need Attention！！！
« on: August 16, 2018, 02:56:51 am »
I agree 2&3

1175
General Discussion / Re: Is it a good idea to lower MSSR of bitCNY from 1.1 to 1.05 or even lower?
« on: August 16, 2018, 02:55:15 am »
Quote from: Brekyrself on August 15, 2018, 10:02:45 pm
All of these potential changes should be considered for all bit assets.  No reason for CYN to be different, this is more confusing for users.

bitCNY has a much better market depth than bitUSD and will face much lower risk to implement this than bitUSD does, that's why I suggest to try this in bitCNY first.

1176
General Discussion / Re: Is it a good idea to lower MSSR of bitCNY from 1.1 to 1.05 or even lower?
« on: August 16, 2018, 01:26:44 am »
Quote from: JonnyB on August 15, 2018, 06:01:31 pm
FFS bitcrab, I thought BitShares was supposed to be decentralised.

You adjust all the parameters to suit your whale positions.

you run the open market operations (a major conflict of interest.)

you got the committee to change force settlement on BitCNY to 5%(supposedly temporarily) when all other bitassets are 1%

now you want to change MSSR for your own ends.

lets just rename it Crabshares

you can also suggest.

decentralized does not mean no one can try to push some change. and now I am just collecting opinion on this topic.

1177
中文 (Chinese) / Re: BTS改革倡议 V1.2 （转）
« on: August 15, 2018, 07:59:50 am »
交易所BTS价格太低，不用它的价格就是了，哪那么麻烦。
要求理事有足够BTS，以及给理事分红的建议，推进都很难，而且未必能带来多大改变。
一半BTS一半bitCNY也是没什么实际意义，但实现起来很麻烦的建议。

1178
General Discussion / Is it a good idea to lower MSSR of bitCNY from 1.1 to 1.05 or even lower?
« on: August 15, 2018, 05:59:53 am »
recently in China community someone suggest to lower MSSR of bitCNY, I'd like to have a public discuss and opinion survey on this topic.

thanks to the new feature target CR and the good market depth, recently most of the time the bitCNY margin called orders are eaten instantly at the price close to market price, when the price fall down to very low point, some margin called order are stay there for long time without being completely, and normally at this time the bitCNY premium is more than 10%.

when margin called orders stay there, then the sell order price will keep falling down when the feed price come down, shorters always can sell to make the feed price even lower and the buy back from DEX, this process make the price even lower.

so is it possible to lesson the positive feedback by lower the MSSR?

I think it's possible, as lower MSSR can reduce the profit expectation of shorting.

more ideas and opinions are welcome to clarify this.




1179
General Discussion / Re: suggestion to witnesses on "the highest one" CNY price feeding model
« on: August 15, 2018, 03:23:28 am »
Quote from: xeroc on August 13, 2018, 10:57:19 am
Quote from: binggo on August 12, 2018, 10:51:05 am
Every witness need to add the BTS trading pair of magicwallet+fee/CNC(AEX)/QC(ZB)/USDT(HUOBI,ZB,GATE,AEX) to the feed price.

I think this is were we should go.

The purpose of the volume-weighted average (in contrast to median) strategy is to let market decide the actual price.
Assuming strong arbitrage, we can say that the volume of that exchange that has the fairest valuation of BTS price also has
the highest volume. With the volume-weighted average, this would also result in a higher weight in the feed calculation at
the witnesses.

I'd say, let the market decide for a "fair" price of BTS (in CNY) and

* add DEX to price feeds
* keep CEXs in price feed
* add magic wallet to price feeds

After that, derive *volume-weighted average*.

If market decides that 1 bitCNY is worth 1.06 CNY, then the 6% premium is market driven and could be justified by the additional utilty of smartcoins - IMHO

if we agree that BTS needs to provide more convenience to longers and make shorting more difficult, then the "volume-weighted average" do not make big sense.

DEX price should be the base price reference, not only because it is our native/local/own exchange, but also because it is decentralized and transparent and free of faded trading data.

CEXs with high volume, good liquidity and good API can also be take as referenced exchanges.

we all trust market, but in the real market the arbitrage is not always easy, if you want to do arbitrage between polo "BTS/BTC" pair and DEX "BTS/bitCNY" pair, you need to go through a long trading chain and always cost much time, so if in the referenced exchanges there are big price difference, adopt the highest is a good choice - always select the highest price make sense.

feed price do not necessarily reflect the instant market price fall, system should avoid the feed price be pulled down by sudden events in single exchanges,.that's why "the highest one" suggestion comes out.

surely there should be some "price fire wall" setting to avoid adopting unreasonable too high prices.

1180
General Discussion / Re: suggestion to witnesses on "the highest one" CNY price feeding model
« on: August 13, 2018, 02:52:01 pm »
proxy bitcrab unvote witness roelandp as the feed price keeps 2% more lower than the BTS price in DEX.

1181
General Discussion / Re: suggestion to witnesses on "the highest one" CNY price feeding model
« on: August 13, 2018, 09:40:52 am »
this comment will focus on the problem "is the current feed price accurate enough?"

to find the answer, let's check if one trader want to buy/sell BTS with fiat CNY, what price is avaliable?

here is the price chart at the time of UCT+8 13th, 17:00


at the time the price has been stable for half an hour and the latest price is 0.805.

at the moment the fee/compensation for bitCNY deposit/withdraw in magicwallet is as below:

deposit:


withdraw:


so let's set bitCNY premium =6%

so in DEX 0.805*1.06=0.853 is a close to "real" price.

but at the moment the feed price, the median of all fed prices, is 0.84, 1% more lower.

if you check in different time， you can find the more than 1% deviation to lower is always the case.

in a financial system, this deviation is not acceptable.


Quote from: bitcrab on August 13, 2018, 03:22:37 am
recently CNY are in high devaluation expectation, in DEX the bitUSD/bitCNY ratio are alway higher than 7, but the bitUSD/bitCNY fee price ratio are still always lower than 6.88, clearly many witness still use the officially published USD/CNY ratio to do price conversion, but this is far from market reality and the algorithm need to be upgraded.

this help to explain why there is so big deviation, official published USD/CNY ratio are used to do the price conversion by some witnesses, but CNY/USD is not totally free market and now one cannot buy USD using CNY with the official ratio, this and other factors make the calculated feed price incorrect.
 

1182
General Discussion / Re: suggestion to witnesses on "the highest one" CNY price feeding model
« on: August 13, 2018, 03:22:37 am »
we need to pay more attention on DEX, DEX is decentralized and more transparent than CEX, and BTS/bitCNY pair in DEX has the biggest BTS volume on the earth, it's easy to do bitCNY/fiat CNY conversion, DEX price should be the base reference for CNY price feeding.

the margin call rule is designed to release risk in time, not to provide chance for shorters to make profit, if there are too much chances for shorters, shorters will take the money from longers and keep on shorting, this will hurt the whole ecosystem, the suggestion is not to change the basic logic of a financial system with leverage, but to provide more convenience to longers, and then give more power for the ecosystem to grow.

within "the highest price" model, shorters can also short, but need to pull down the prices in all the involved exchanges and then can make the feed price down, and debt positions are protected from targeting activities or unusual events, all this encourages longers.

and this will help to make DEX the main long-short the war field, this also benefit the field.

recently CNY are in high devaluation expectation, in DEX the bitUSD/bitCNY ratio are alway higher than 7, but the bitUSD/bitCNY fee price ratio are still always lower than 6.88, clearly many witness still use the officially published USD/CNY ratio to do price conversion, but this is far from market reality and the algorithm need to be upgraded.

to speed up the upgrade of price feeding, proxy bitcrab begin to unvote the witness that behave unsatisfactory in price feeding.

in current check point, DEX latest BTS price:0.766bitCNY, bitCNY premium 7.3%, reference price:0.822 CNY.
the median feed price is 0.8087 at the point, please don't say "my price is close to the median so works well" , the median price is not good now and what we try to do is to change this.

delegate-1.lafona always feed too low price in the recent several check, so now proxy bitcrab unvote the witness temporarily.



magicwallet is planning to provide a feed price monitor page, to show data from each witness in a candle chart, then it will be easy to see which witness provide good price feeding and which does not.






1183
中文 (Chinese) / Re: 喂价模式不改，比特股永远走不出自己的价值
« on: August 13, 2018, 02:45:28 am »
现在外汇市场人民币贬值预期严重，甚至内盘bitUSD/butCNY汇率在7以上已是常态，但USD，CNY喂价的比率都基本还在6.88以下，说明什么？说明多数见证人喂价在做价格转换时还用的官方发布的USD/CNY汇率！根本不考虑真实市场价格！这也是导致CNY喂价偏低的最大原因之一。

1184
中文 (Chinese) / Re: 喂价模式不改，比特股永远走不出自己的价值
« on: August 12, 2018, 01:03:19 pm »
Quote from: gmgogo on August 12, 2018, 12:46:12 pm
Quote from: bitcrab on August 12, 2018, 04:35:25 am
Quote from: binggo on August 12, 2018, 04:19:19 am
是否在喂价脚本算法中对“最高价”与“中值价”进行对比，防止偏离实际或者过于离谱的“最高价"出现？

比如：某个交易所禁止了充提，把价格刷高了。

不认为很有必要，禁止冲提价格只会偏低，而且过于离谱的“最高价”通常只能维持很短时间，也不会伤害谁。
我知道巨蟹希望BTS变成高价币，但是您能提出来采用最高喂价这种方案，我真的觉得您是疯了！甚至觉得只考虑一时的高价，而忽视了BTS长远的发展。
7月31日，xn-delegate发出来的喂价是1.6元，而其他人发布的大概都是1.1元左右。如果采用1.6元，则有些人可以马上抵押出大量的bitcny从而提现走人，回头任由剩下的BTS爆掉。而如果当时的喂价有人刷出来是2.6元甚至260元呢？甚至有人不想干了，直接刷出来几亿元的喂价呢？马上抵押出天量的cny，从此管你BTS是死是活。
而除了有人刻意喂高价之外，还有可能遭遇黑客攻击等等可能。而采用喂价中间价格，则除非有超过14个喂价同时不正常才行，大大提高了系统的稳健性。

我建议的“最高价”方案，是建议每个见证人喂交易所里的最高价格，不是说取见证人里喂价最高的那个。
当然，价格防火墙也是需要的。

1185
中文 (Chinese) / Re: 喂价模式不改，比特股永远走不出自己的价值
« on: August 12, 2018, 12:59:44 pm »
Quote from: Bangzi on August 12, 2018, 07:38:53 am
Quote from: ymtt on August 12, 2018, 07:20:12 am
Quote from: bitcrab on August 12, 2018, 04:35:25 am
Quote from: binggo on August 12, 2018, 04:19:19 am
是否在喂价脚本算法中对“最高价”与“中值价”进行对比，防止偏离实际或者过于离谱的“最高价"出现？

比如：某个交易所禁止了充提，把价格刷高了。

不认为很有必要，禁止冲提价格只会偏低，而且过于离谱的“最高价”通常只能维持很短时间，也不会伤害谁。
很有必要，但凡漏洞都会被人拿来作恶，交易所禁止充提，作恶的刷高喂价，内盘抵押套现，这就伤害了没有抵押套现的用户。

这个真的需要认真看待，虽然一些见证人脚本可以设定一个上限值例如最大变动为10%，但不是每个见证人都做类似的设定的。

当大部分见证人使用最高价后（如果没有设定最大变动值），这漏洞可以制造暴利：
1. 先选一个卖压低的中心化交易所
2. 半夜的时候爆拉100倍 （TRON 曾经被爆拉千倍）
3. 只要坚持 30分钟，内盘大部分见证人已经更新最高价格了
4. 在比特股内盘抵押套现大量BITCNY
5. 当价格回复正常，就是内盘崩盘的时候

嗯，这么说确实需要价格防火墙以防万一。而且我不觉得喂价参考的中心化交易所多多益善，参考几家最大的就可以了。

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