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Messages - bitcrab

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1066
接下去需要搞搞bitUSD了,bitUSD溢价依然严重,现在和bitCNY汇率都7.2了。。。

bitUSD没有承兑商,这是硬伤,可以先缓缓,现在bitCNY还缺乏一个暴跌的试验

没有承兑商不是什么大问题,只要锚定得足够好,自然会有很多场合很多人会选用。
前几天BTS也不是没有暴跌过。
拖延没什么意义。

1067
Disable force settlement and global settlement, Are you mad?

You initially said the 5% force settlement was a temporary measure,  that was a year ago.  Bitshares is a protocol you can't keep changing the rules for your own interests even as a big whale.

As someone else said, make your own CNY smartcoin don't try and change the committee assets.

How can someone have faith in a stablecoin when the rules change every year.

all the changes are based on consensus.

anyone can suggest to change the committee assets, if there are strong consensus on changing, change will happen. smartcoin need to evolve, don't say "keep *** unchanged, create your own assets", if you disagree one suggestion, just explain your opinion.

change do not lead to losing faith, keep everything unchanged even it is very necessary will lead to losing faith.

bitCNY kept losing faith until BSIP42 come out.

for bitCNY, force settlement make little sense, 5% offset is to protect debt position owners from being hurt, I do not suggest to change the offset back because I don't see any necessity to do that, after the BSIP42 implementation, if we do not disable force settlement for bitCNY, maybe some time we need to increase the offset to 10% or even higher to ensure the system work well.


1068
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: [Poll] BSIP42: adjust price feed dynamically
« on: September 15, 2018, 06:44:11 pm »
data at this moment:
bitCNY: BTS price:0.818, feed price:0.917, premium:0.1%
bitUSD: BTS price:0.115, feed price:0.119, premium: 4% 

BSIP42 worked fairly well on bitCNY, we need to apply it on bitUSD in the next step.

1069
It is not possible to disable black swans.

This latest idea together with all the experiments and tweaking have taken bitCNY so far away from the original idea of BitShares' smartcoins that it would make sense to introduce a new kind of smartcoin tailored to your needs.

nothing impossible.

what we should do is to make bitCNY/bitUSD the best stable coins in the token economy world, not to fix on the original idea of Bitshares smartcoins.

smartcoin need evolve.

it is reluctant to tell the users:"hi Buddy, bitCNY/bitUSD has some problem, could you please switch to XXXCNY/XXXUSD?"

1070
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: [Witness Proposal] gdex-witnness
« on: September 15, 2018, 03:02:05 pm »
BSIP42 is accepted means witnesses can work based on the negative feed back core ideas, I don't think we need one unique algorithm for every witness to adopt, but I agree that witnesses should publish their algorithm for community to evaluate.

I don't think the diversity of algorithm is bad, and I don't think we "rush" on this implementation, in China one week is very long time.

witnesses is a distributed team, they can consider, code and watch, I believe they can do work well, actually BSIP42 now work well in bitCNY.

BTW, gdex-witness started implementing BSIP42 in bitUSD, same algorithm with bitCNY as shown above in this thread.

1071
BSIP42 now worked fairly well in bitCNY. in several days the bitCNY premium decreased from above 5% to about 0.35%(this moment).

however, we are now facing 2 problems:

1. based on BSIP42, feed price may be much higher than Pdex(BTS price in DEX in bitCNY) in bear market, it may also be much lower than Pdex in bull market, now we have a 5% force settlement offset for bitCNY, but in bull market, it's possible that feed price be more than 5% lower than Pdex, at that time there will be chance for bitCNY holders to make profit by exploiting the debt position owners.


2. black swan possibility increased? now feed price is 12.3% higher than the latest price in DEX, many margined called orders just stayed there without being eaten, at this moment the highest call price in these orders is 0.9088, and we have a global settlement price of 0.5193.

I feel now force settlement and black swan now make little sense for bitCNY, especially after the BSIP implementation.

bitCNY has a force settlement offset of 5% for long time, it is seldom used, no obvious impact on the pegging of bitCNY. thanks to the good liquidity of bitCNY, bitCNY pegging depend little on the force settlement feature.

after BSIP42 implementation, it is the negative feedback mechanism, not the sufficient collateral promise that play the key role for bitCNY pegging, now when bitCNY is close to black swan, bitCNY will also has very high premium, the negative feedback mechanism will work to help to recover the BTS price. no need to trigger global setting.

in my view, for bitCNY, force settlement and black swan now make little sense but bring some trouble, I wonder whether it is possible to disable these 2 features.

any thoughts? we need sufficient discussion on this topic, no need to rush to a conclusion.

1072
接下去需要搞搞bitUSD了,bitUSD溢价依然严重,现在和bitCNY汇率都7.2了。。。

1073
updated witnesses voting. we would like to support the witnesses that work well in implementing BSIP42.

as now bitCNY is still in obvious premium(>1%), we select to vote the witnesses that always publish price which is higher than median.

we'll keep on checking the price feeding status and update the witness voting.

1074
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: [Witness Proposal] gdex-witnness
« on: September 13, 2018, 12:08:03 pm »
What will be the next proposal to cancel black swan events ?

you are right, I am considering to cancel black swan events.


Maybe you should focus on adoption instead of manipulation ?

I'm just helping Bitshares to evolve. I cannot persuade more people to adopt bitCNY if it is always in serious shortage and high premium.

1075
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: [Witness Proposal] gdex-witnness
« on: September 13, 2018, 10:32:17 am »
What will be the next proposal to cancel black swan events ?

you are right, I am considering to cancel black swan events.

1076
由于见证人喂价中只有中位数最终生效,所以负反馈喂价的一个基本逻辑是:

溢价>0时,喂价要大于中位数。
溢价<0时,喂价要小于中位数。

现在溢价大约在1.4%左右,最近溢价一直大于0,所以,喂价一直小于中位数的算法是需要调整的。

abit的算法是比较简单的满足这种逻辑的算法:以当前中位数为基础价格,溢价决定调整方向和幅度。

一些见证人的算法可能不满足这个基本逻辑,应该需要调整。


1077
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: [Witness Proposal] gdex-witnness
« on: September 12, 2018, 08:50:48 am »
updated version:

Pdex:BTS price in DEX in bitCNY
Pf: current feed price
premium: current premium
Premium0: premium in the last period

Tp=4;Ti=10; Td=1; ##parameters for PID control, here the Ti plays a key role, it should fit the update period

get Pdex, Pf, premium;
premium0=premium;
p=Tp*premium;
i= Pf/Pdex-p-1; ##set initial value for p,i,d to make the initial calculated feed price equal to the current feed price in system.
d=0;

while True:
   
   get Pdex, Pf, premium;

   i+=premium/Ti;
   if i>0.4: ##set limit to i, to speed up the backward adjustment if premium change to cross 0
       i=0.4;
    if i<-0.3:
       i=-0.3;
    d=Td*(premium-premium0);
    premium0=premium;
           
   p=Tp*premium;
   
   if p+i+d>0:
     feed price = Pdex*min(1+p+i+d, 1.5, 1.03*Pf/Pdex) ##limit the feed price comparing to Pdex and current feed price while the adjustment is upward.
   else:
     feed price = Pdex*max(1+p+i+d, 0.98*Pf/Pdex)##limit the feed price comparing to current feed price while the adjustment is downward.
   time.sleep(120) ##update every 2 minutes.

1078
gdex.witness PID喂价算法已上线。
现在PID参数每2分钟更新一次,积分因子可能会累加得比较快,先观察一下。

1079
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: [Witness Proposal] gdex-witnness
« on: September 11, 2018, 03:15:34 pm »
gdex-witness plan to adopt below algorithm for bitCNY price feeding, the core idea comes from PID control theory.

Pdex:BTS price in DEX in bitCNY
Pf: current feed price
premium: current premium
Premium0: premium in the last period

Tp=4;Ti=6; Td=1; ##parameters for PID control, here the Ti plays a key role, setting it to 6 will make i reach maximum in 20 hours if the premium keeps 2% or higher.

get Pdex, Pf, premium;
premium0=premium;
p=Tp*premium;
i= Pf/Pdex-p-1; ##set initial value for p,i,d to make the initial calculated feed price equal to the current feed price in system.
d=0;

while True:
   
   get Pdex, Pf, premium;

   while (10 minutes passed after the last execution):
         i+=premium/Ti;
         if i>0.4: ##set limit to i, to speed up the backward adjustment if premium change to cross 0
            i=0.4;
         if i<-0.3:
            i=-0.3;
         d=Td*(premium-premium0);
         premium0=premium;
           
   p=Tp*premium;
   
   if p+i+d>0:
     feed price = Pdex*min(1+p+i+d, 1.5, 1.2*Pf/Pdex) ##limit the feed price not higher than 1.5 times Pdex or 1.2 times current feed price while the adjustment is upward.
   else:
     feed price = Pdex*max(1+p+i+d, 0.91*Pf/Pdex)##limit the feed price no less than 0.91 times current feed price while the adjustment is downward.

1080
with BTS price going down, bitCNY are squeezed out, risk and capital cost of shorts increase. but demand change slowly than that, all these lead to higher premium and vice versa.

that's one problem of smartcoin, when premium go farer from 0 there's nothing to stimulate the premium to go toward 0, and that's why we now try the negative feed back price feeding, hope that can help.

Keep in mind that margin called short positions create automatic demand, and the amount of poorly collateralized bitCNY short positions is the biggest reason for the premium.

The whole theory of bitassets is based upon the premium. If bitXY trades with a premium there is an incentive for shorters to create (and sell) more bitXY, which brings the premium down. If bitXY trades below par there is an incentive for shorters to buy up cheap bitXY and close their positions. In both cases, the market price is driven towards par. Therefore it doesn't make sense to claim that nothing stimulates the premium - the premium exists to stimulate market participants.

No, we haven't saw that the premium stimulate people to do more shorting, as high premium is always with BTS price down trend and high risk that play a much important role for a shorter to make decision.

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